Can The UNI Panther Train Roll To An NCAA Team Trophy?

null

Unlock this video, live events, and more with a subscription!

Get Started

Already a subscriber? Log In

Unlock this article, live events, and more with a subscription!

Get Started

Already a subscriber? Log In

UNI finished its dual meet season in style by beating Wisconsin 20-18 in a wild dual in Madison last Thursday. The Panthers have been ranked inside the top four this year, but injuries seem to have limited their point-scoring potential. Do they have the firepower to bring home a trophy from Minneapolis?

NCAA Landscape

Before diving into UNI's shot at a trophy, let's establish a bit of context about this year's field. This season, nine teams (including UNI) have been ranked in the top four, and even more have been just outside.

Every week, each ranked wrestler is assigned the placement and advancement points they would earn if their finish at NCAAs corresponded to their ranking. These do not include bonus points. Team rankings are based on the sum of each team's projected individual points. 

Here is the high, low, and average projected score (before bonus points) from each week's rankings for the teams ranked #1-#4 this season:


HighLowAverage
1st Place Team144.5108129.24
2nd Place Team105.572.590.32
3rd Place Team70.54958.12
4th Place Team6047.553.56

The number that I'm most concerned about for the purposes of this article series is the average of the #4-ranked team this year. It is logical to assume that teams will need to score more than 53.56 before bonus to be in trophy contention.

UNI's Season

Northern Iowa has been ranked as high as #3 this season but was only ranked inside the top four for two weeks in November.

The Panthers' projected point total has been as high as 51.5 points on November 18 and as low as 28 points on January 13.

The graph below demonstrates the consistent work of Bryce Steiert and Taylor Lujan and also how big an impact Jacob Holschlag's absence has made on UNI's hopes of earning a team trophy.

In addition to looking at their week-to-week collective team projection, it's valuable to look at the highest and lowest points that each weight class has been projected to score this season as outlined in this table.


HighLow
125-Schwarm20.5
133-Skudlarczyk0.50
141-Blockhus20
149-Thomsen13.52
157-Moore00
165-Yant00
174-Steiert12.510
184-Lujan12.510
197-Holschlag/Patton13.50
285-Isley1.50.5

5823

The sum of the individual Panthers' highest point projection is 58 while the total of their projected lows is 23. That projected high is inflated because of the 13.5 points at 197 that will not be coming from the injured Jacob Holschlag.

The question posed by both this table and the graph above is how the Panthers can make up for the lost contributions of their injured 197-pounder.

UNI's Path to a Trophy

The Panthers' path to an NCAA trophy is predicated on high podium placement from Bryce Steiert at 174 and Taylor Lujan at 184.

Steiert has been consistently ranked between #4 and #6 this year and made the finals at both CKLV and Midlands. The Panthers seem to be able to pencil him in for 10 or more points.

null

Unlock this video, live events, and more with a subscription!

Get Started

Already a subscriber? Log In

Taylor Lujan has been ranked similarly to Steiert, but now that Zahid Valencia has been suspended, he has to be considered a contender for an NCAA title. The top spot at NCAAs is worth 20 points before bonus, and that is not unrealistic for Lujan who won Midlands and has wins this year over current #2 Bolen, #6 Andrew Morgan, and #10 Abe Assad.

The next proven piece of the Panthers' lineup is Max Thomsen, a 2017 All-American at 149 and round of 12 finisher the last two years. 

Thomsen has been ranked to finish as high as third this year but has not had the season UNI fans would have hoped. If Thomsen can regain his All-American form, UNI has a shot at a trophy. If not, it's going to be tough.

null

Unlock this video, live events, and more with a subscription!

Get Started

Already a subscriber? Log In

The Panthers will need more productivity if they want to bring home hardware in March, and that could come from 125-pounder Jacob Schwarm and 141-pounder Michael Blockhus.

Schwarm is currently ranked #10, just outside of All-American contention, but he has looked excellent lately and could push to finish on the podium. On top of that, he is a prolific pinner with 15 of his 18 wins this season coming by fall. While this article series doesn't carefully examine bonus points, those pin numbers are undeniable.

null

Unlock this video, live events, and more with a subscription!

Get Started

Already a subscriber? Log In

Freshman Michael Blockhus could also play a big role in the Panthers' trophy chances. He is coming off a win over #4 Tristan Moran and also has a win over All-American Tariq Wilson. He has yet to be ranked inside the top eight, but his results suggest that he has that potential.

UNI is a team that will need to perform above its highest projected point total of the season due to the loss of Jacob Holschlag. Lujan, Schwarm, and Blockhus seem like the most likely contenders to make that happen. If they can, UNI just might bring home a top-four trophy from NCAAs.


Other Articles in this Series

Can Penn State Run Down An NCAA Title?

Can Ohio State Bring Home Its 6th Straight NCAA Team Trophy?

Can Wisconsin Win An NCAA Team Trophy In Coach Bono's 2nd Season?

Can Powerful Princeton Win A Top 4 Trophy At NCAAs?

Can Minnesota Win An NCAA Team Trophy In Their Home City?

Can Nebraska Win An NCAA Team Trophy?

Can Undefeated NC State Win A Team Trophy In March?

Purdue Is On The Rise, But Are They An NCAA Trophy Team?

Can Oklahoma State Win An NCAA Team Trophy In An Up And Down Year?

The Best Who's #1 Matches Ever: Year-By-Year

null

Unlock this video, live events, and more with a subscription!

Get Started

Already a subscriber? Log In

Over the past seven years, the best of the best have put on a show for either the Pennsylvania or Iowa crowd. However, for the first time ever, Who’s #1 is coming to Austin, TX, and this year’s card is bringing the heat. The 2020 Who’s #1 card is arguably the best one the history of Who’s #1.

Unlock this article, live events, and more with a subscription!

Get Started

Already a subscriber? Log In

NWCA D1 Leadership Group Recommends January 1 Start To Season

NCAA

by Nate Naasz

Create a free account to unlock this article!

Get Started

Already a subscriber?  Log In

What Dan Gable Can Teach The Hawkeyes About Building A Dynasty

Going Out On A Win

Unlock this video, live events, and more with a subscription!

Get Started

Already a subscriber? Log In

For Iowa, building a dynasty has been engrained in its blood for 50 years. It began in the mid-1970s, when the Hawkeyes won their first of what would become 23 titles in the span of 43 championship seasons.

Unlock this article, live events, and more with a subscription!

Get Started

Already a subscriber? Log In

FRL 535 - Predicting Penn State-Nebraska, Michigan-Cornell

535. Predicting PSU-NEB, MICH-Cornell

Unlock this video, live events, and more with a subscription!

Get Started

Already a subscriber? Log In

On episode 535 of FRL, the boys make predictions for Penn State-Nebraska, Michigan-Cornell, NC State-Michigan, give an update on the recruiting dead period, and questions from friends.

Unlock this article, live events, and more with a subscription!

Get Started

Already a subscriber? Log In

Dundee Wrestling's Stoney Buell Releases Top 5 Schools

null

Unlock this video, live events, and more with a subscription!

Get Started

Already a subscriber? Log In

On March 3, 2018, Brandon Whitman put the finishing touches on a storied high school wrestling career by becoming Dundee's first, four-time Michigan state champion.

Unlock this article, live events, and more with a subscription!

Get Started

Already a subscriber? Log In

EIWA Releases Statement Regarding 2020-21 Season

null

Unlock this video, live events, and more with a subscription!

Get Started

Already a subscriber? Log In

VILLAS, NJ -- The Eastern Intercollegiate Wrestling Association is a wrestling only association whose member schools are all affiliated with other conferences. As such, our member teams may be subject to restrictions imposed by their parent conferences and home states with respect to athletic practice and competition during the current COVID-19 pandemic. 

Create a free account to unlock this article!

Get Started

Already a subscriber?  Log In

Bader Show: BJ Futrell

BJ Futrell

Unlock this video, live events, and more with a subscription!

Get Started

Already a subscriber? Log In

On this episode of The Bader Show, Bader and Bray talk with BJ Futrell about his new role at Beat The Streets Philly.

Unlock this article, live events, and more with a subscription!

Get Started

Already a subscriber? Log In

Nathan Tomasello Joins Duke Wrestling Staff

Nathan Tomasello

Another Buckeye is joining the coaching profession. Four-time All-American and 2015 NCAA champion Nathan Tomasello is joining the wrestling staff at Duke University as an assistant coach, becoming the ninth Ohio State alumnus on staff at a collegiate program this season.

Unlock this article, live events, and more with a subscription!

Get Started

Already a subscriber? Log In

FRL 534 - Cornell-Ohio State, Nebraska-Ohio State Dual Pick'Em

534. Picking Cornell-tOSU, Nebraska-tOSU

Unlock this video, live events, and more with a subscription!

Get Started

Already a subscriber? Log In

On episode 534 of FRL, the boys make some picks for Cornell-Ohio State, and Nebraska-Ohio State, and give an update on college football.

Unlock this article, live events, and more with a subscription!

Get Started

Already a subscriber? Log In

Who Is Scoring The Most Points At 57kg And When Are They Scoring Them

Uguev

Who, What, and How Are Points Being Scored At 57kg: Part 2

Unlock this article, live events, and more with a subscription!

Get Started

Already a subscriber? Log In