Simulating The 2018 NCAA Team Race

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Thanks to an extremely friendly and generous university professor, we can now harness the power of computers and use math to simulate the NCAA tournament 10,000 times. 

We've simulated the team race for the NCAA Championships based on our rankings a few times in the past. You can read more about how we do it and see the results of the exercise using preseason rankings from way back in September 2017 here

And now we're going to do it again, but this time using the seeds from the 2018 NCAA Tournament in Cleveland, which you can find on the brackets on FloArena

NCAA Draw Analysis: Penn State | Ohio State | MissouriMichiganNC StateIowa

We'll know soon enough who the actual winner is, and this simulation will have precisely zero effect on the outcome of this week's tournament. However, that doesn't have to stop us from indulging in a little pre-NCAA first-whistle speculation with the help of WresleTron CompuBot 6000.

Below are the results of the simulation using the seeds from the 2018 NCAA Championships brackets:


According to our simulation, Ohio State scores 150 points or more around 10 percent of the time, whereas Penn State scores over 150 or more about 4 percent of the time. That may seem like an obscene amount of points, but according to Dan Lobdell's analysis, that may be what it takes to win this historically tough tournament. 

But there are more than two teams with a chance to win a title. The Buckeyes and Nittany Lions may be getting most of the attention, but Missouri, NC State, and Michigan all have significant chances of scoring the most points at the Quicken Loans Arena.

Our simulator can also tell us the average score these teams will earn at the championships. The top 10 teams and their average simulated scores are below.


RANKSCHOOLAVG SCORE
1Ohio State123
2Penn State112
3Missouri79
4NC State70
5Michigan68
6Lehigh64
7Iowa61
8OK State58
9Arizona State54
10Virginia Tech50


So is this what the NCAA scoreboard will definitely look like by the end of Saturday? Of course not! I mean, I suppose it's a possibility, but the 330 student-athletes who came to win a championship aren't going to do it by running a computer program. They're going to do it on the mat! And we get to see it all go down over the next three glorious days!

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In the morning, we'll see the all the top high school action we've been waiting for, but for now, we have the brackets to digest. Check out our instant reactions to the 2020 Super 32 brackets. You can also check out the full brackets to see just how insane the action will be.

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Super 32 Sleepers And Dark Horses

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This weekend's Super 32 brackets are loaded, but just like every year, a handful of off-the-radar athletes will catch the wrestling world by surprise. Take a look at eight wrestlers who could be poised to make major moves in Myrtle Beach.

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The Ultimate Super 32 Preview And Predictions Article

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Everyone knows Super 32 is the toughest high school folkstyle tournament every year. This year will be no different. 

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The Top 7 Weights To Watch At Super 32

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There really isn't a bad weight at Super 32, but some of these brackets are absolutely ridiculous. Check out the seven weights that are guaranteed to produce fireworks.

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566. Breaking Down Super 32

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On episode 566 of FRL, the boys talk about USA Wrestling's press conference on not going to Worlds, break down Super 32, Alien Hour is back, and much more.

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USA Wrestling Press Conference On World Championship Decision

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After USA Wrestling announced that team USA would not be sending a team to this year's World Championships, it held a press conference to discuss its rationale and address media questions and concerns. This press conference has been made available to the public.

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How To Watch: 2020 Flo 195 Lbs 8-Man

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Myles Martin, Gabe Dean, Keith Gavin, Drew Foster, Sammy Brooks, Nate Jackson, Taylor Lujan, and Shakur Rasheed will do battle in an eight-man bracket with $20,000 going to the winner, $10,000 to the runner-up, $5,000 to the third-place finisher, $2,500 to the fourth-place finisher, and $1,000 to the first-round losers.

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