2018 NCAA Championships

NCAA Draw Analysis: Missouri

NCAA Draw Analysis: Missouri

Analyzing the draws and point potential for all nine Missouri Tigers who qualified for the 2018 NCAA tournament in Cleveland.

Mar 10, 2018 by Wrestling Nomad
null
The 2018 NCAA tournament in Cleveland is imminent, and Missouri looks capable of winning its first team trophy since 2015.

Unlock this article, live events, and more with a subscription!

Sign Up

Already a subscriber? Log In

The 2018 NCAA tournament in Cleveland is imminent, and Missouri looks capable of winning its first team trophy since 2015.

Now that brackets are out, we are doing a rundown of the draws for each of the top teams. Based purely on seeds and not factoring in any bonus points, the Tigers project to finish third at next week's championships with 79.5 points, ahead of Michigan with 68.5.

NCAA BRACKETS IN FLOARENA

Missouri coach Brian Smith and his staff qualified wrestlers in nine weights, and seven of them received seeds. Getting their six guys who received top eight seeds to finish as All-Americans will put the Tigers in excellent position to finish third or fourth as a team.

What we're doing here is a deep dive on the draws for Missouri and giving a range of projected point totals. Obviously, the range is 0-30 for every wrestler in the tournament, but we try to give a realistic picture of how many points each could score.

125: Barlow McGhee, SR

Though Barlow McGhee was once a guy who seemed to be on a trajectory to place or repeatedly score team points for the Tigers, he’ll either finish his career 1-2 or 0-2 in Cleveland. In the first round, he'll have returning NCAA finalist Ethan Lizak. These two have only met once, a 3-2 win in tiebreakers for Lizak during their true freshman seasons.

Dropping down into the consis, McGhee will see Elijah Oliver, someone who has wrestled at a level above McGhee this year. If McGhee wins that, he'll be knocked out by Either Sebastian Rivera or Taylor LaMont.

Range of Points

0.5-2

133: John Erneste, JR

Erneste was a couple rounds from placing last year as a 10 seed but now gets a five seed for Cleveland. He’ll start off with the always squirrelly Tariq Wilson, who will have a range advantage over Erneste and is also very good on top. I think Erneste is a slightly better version of Wilson but will still need to win the takedown battle here.

How about another good one after that with David Terao? Erneste will really need to slow down Terao on his feet and not let him use his upper-body stuff and judo background to put Erneste in too big of a hole.

Like all five seeds, the quarterfinal provides a crucial opportunity for team points and to lock in an All-American spot. But Kaid Brock has had Erneste’s number the past two years. He'd then have to face either Jack Mueller, who's previously beaten Erneste, or whirlwind Austin DeSanto.

null

Unlock this video, live events, and more with a subscription!

Sign Up

Already a subscriber? Log In


It doesn't get easier from there, with Montorie Bridges likely waiting if Erneste wins. This draw has all the makings of underperforming his seed and possibly missing the podium again.

Range of Points

3-7

141: Jaydin Eierman, SO

Eierman represents Mizzou's best chance at a finalist and national champion. Neither of his Thursday matchups appears to present much of a challenge and bonus is absolutely in play. After dispatching AC Headlee and either Nate Limmex or Eli Stickley, Eierman is looking at Brock Zacherl, Chad Red, Tommy Thorn, or Mason Smith. I actually like Smith to come out of that grouping, someone whom Eierman is 3-0 against and most recently teched.

In the semifinals, he'd see one of two guys he has already beaten this season: Yianni Diakomihalis or Dean Heil. I'm not 100 percent sure he beats either of them again, but it certainly seems like he'll get finalist-level points either way. Eierman's floor is likely fourth.

The dicey part about predicting Eierman finishes is that he'll have 17-15 matches with Dakota Leach or 11-7 matches with Anthony Tutolo. Those are few and far between but stick out. When in doubt, the bet is always to just take the better wrestler, and at 141, Eierman is at or near the top.

Range of Points

16-22

149: Grant Leeth, JR

It's pretty difficult what to make of Leeth's seed. He'll have a tough but very winnable Big Ten match right away with either Eleazer DeLuca or Steve Bleise and then Beau Donahue. Leeth should not have problems getting to the quarters, but then Matt Kolodzik or Justin Oliver will be waiting. I think Kolodzik drops him down into the consis.

There, he'd see Max Thomsen, whom Leeth beat on a last-minute takedown in the dual, or Boo Lewallen, who beat Leeth at the beginning of the year. There's a strong possibility Leeth falls short of being an All American this year.

Range of Points

2-6

157: Joey Lavallee, SR

Much like his potential quarterfinal opponent Micah Jordan, Lavallee could lose anywhere from the quarters to the finals. Based on the Penn State and Ohio State draw analyses, I like Lavallee to make the finals. I would not be surprised if he lost his quarter or semi, but he's a returning finalist and Jason Nolf is hurt.

If he does wind up losing to Micah, he'd have a match with Luke Zilverberg or Mitch Finesilver, so being an All-American again is very likely. After that comes the matchup with Nolf or Kemerer, which he would have to get through to either make the finals or consi semis.

Health is important, and Lavallee's makes me more comfortable than Nolf and Kemerer. No one would be surprised if Lavallee lost, but he certainly can make the finals again.

Range of Points

11-21

165: Connor Flynn, FR

It's not a great draw for Flynn, and I see him going two and barbecue. He starts with Branson Ashworth, followed by two-time Midlands finalist Jon Schleifer. On to next year for the young Tiger.

Range of Points

0-2

174: Daniel Lewis, JR

Pencil Lewis in for bonus points in both Thursday matches, as there are few better on top in the country. He starts off with Dean Sherry of Rider and then hits either Daniel Bullard or Yoanse Mejias.

It's difficult to stress just how important the quarterfinal round is at all levels of wrestling, especially at the NCAA tournament. With a win against Bo Jordan, Lewis is an AA for the third time in three years. Lose, as he did twice in 2016, and he has to beat Keaton Subjeck just to get in position for seventh. Then, Lewis would face Taylor Lujan, whom he beat 13-10 in an absurd match in the UNI/Missouri dual.

null

Unlock this video, live events, and more with a subscription!

Sign Up

Already a subscriber? Log In


I don't think Lewis can beat Mark Hall, and he would have an interesting battle with either Jordan Kutler or Myles Amine for third. His range appears to be seventh to third, and I lean toward the higher end.

Range of Points

8-18

184: Canten Marriott, FR

The freshman should win his first match against Mitch Bowman but then fall to two seed Myles Martin on Thursday night. He'd drop down and have Martin Mueller, which is not an ideal matchup for Marriott. If he can make it past Mueller, Marriott's season would end at the hands of either Emery Parker or Taylor Venz.

Range of Points

1-4

197: Willie Miklus, SR

Miklus tries to become a three-time All-American in Cleveland next weekend. The Iowa native went 22-3 this year up at 197 after competing at 184 for the first two seasons of his career. He'll start by repeating a decision win over Jacob Holschlag from the UNI dual and then taking out Nathan Traxler or Corey Griego. At 2016 NCAAs, Miklus beat Griego 15-6, so he shouldn't have any real issues Thursday.

Friday morning offers a rematch with Jared Haught, who was beating Miklus soundly until the Mizzou senior hit a high flyer and pinned Haught. The rematch favors Haught, sending Miklus down to the consis to likely face Nate Rotert.

Now an All-American, he'd then face someone like Frank Mattiace or Scottie Boykin. However, his forward run ends there, with one of Kollin Moore, Shakur Rasheed, or Mike Macchiavello appearing in the consi semis. Miklus will wrestle approximately to seed and be a good boost to Missouri. It should also be noted that Miklus has apparently been granted a sixth year of eligibility and show should get one more crack at NCAAs after this season.

Range of Points

10-13


Marriott, Flynn, and McGhee really hurt Mizzou's chances of getting little boosts here and there. They also have some guys projected to underperform their seeds. With four guys looking like really good bets to be All-Americans, Smith and company will need peak performances to get the Tigers up over 70 points and in the fight for a trophy.

Missouri's Projected Point Total

67.5