2018 NCAA Championships

NCAA Draw Analysis: NC State

NCAA Draw Analysis: NC State

Analyzing the draws and point potential for the NC State Wolfpack at the 2018 NCAA tournament in Cleveland.

Mar 13, 2018 by Wrestling Nomad
NCAA Draw Analysis: NC State
The 2018 NCAA tournament in Cleveland is imminent, and NC State looks capable of winning a team trophy for the first time in the Pat Popolizio era.

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The 2018 NCAA tournament in Cleveland is imminent, and NC State looks capable of winning a team trophy for the first time in the Pat Popolizio era.

Now that brackets are out, we are doing a rundown of the draws for each of the top teams. Based purely on seeds and not factoring in any bonus points, the Wolfpack project to finish fifth at this week's championships with 68 points.

NCAA BRACKETS IN FLOARENA

Popolizio and his staff qualified wrestlers in eight weights. Six wrestlers were seeded, all in the top six of their weight.

What we're doing here is a deep dive on the draws for NC State and giving a range of projected point totals. Obviously, the range is 0-30 for every wrestler in the tournament, but we try to give a realistic picture of how many points each could score.

125: Sean Fausz, SR

Thursday and Friday morning matches are a concern for Fausz coming off a one-hour weigh-in. His first match out the gate is against MAC champion Michael McGee, a true freshman from Old Dominion. Fausz should be able to take care of business there, as McGee has lost to Louie Hayes and Kyle Norstrem, both of whom Fausz has beaten. He’d see Hayes next round, whom he has beaten 9-4 and 4-0 so far this season.

Even not at full strength, Rutgers' Nick Suriano would be a favorite over Fausz in the quarterfinals, which means he’d drop down into the blood round. There, he’d see either Taylor LaMont or Sebastian Rivera. He’s already beaten LaMont and I think he will again. However, I'm feeling less confident about Fausz beating Rivera.

Range of Points

6-12

133: Tariq Wilson, FR

Starting off with the five seed isn’t ideal, though Wilson could provide some issues to John Erneste. After that, he’d see Rico Montoya of Northern Colorado, someone he has not yet met in his college career. Win there, and he’d have a tough one against either Dom Forys or Scotty Parker.

Range of Points

0-2

141: Kevin Jack, SR

Outside of a loss to Bryce Meredith in the Reno finals, Jack otherwise controlled his destiny heading into the final weekend of the regular season. But then he lost to Joey McKenna in the Ohio State dual and Brent Moore in the ACC finals, leaving Jack as the five seed. He’d see Moore for the rubber match in the second round. The first time around, Jack got the tech, but who really knows what will happen.

In order to make the semis and renew his long rivalry with Meredith, Jack would have to get revenge against McKenna. If he loses to Moore again, he’d have Henry Pohlmeyer or Evan Cheek in the consi round. If he loses to McKenna in the quarters, he’d see someone like Brock Zacherl, Nate Limmex, or Chad Red. Should he lose to Meredith again, he’d probably have Dean Heil or Yianni Diakomihalis.

Jack is a five seed who could conceivably win the title, with a floor of about sixth place.

Range of Points

9.5-20

149: Beau Donahue, SR

As the 14 seed, Donahue gets Cole Martin of Wisconsin in the first round and then Grant Leeth of Missouri. Dropping down after the Leeth match, he’d see Tyshawn Williams of SIUE or Jarrett Degen of Iowa State. Donahue beat Degen 9-5 and 9-8 in opens last season. His season would then end at the hands of either Matt Kolodzik or Justin Oliver.

Range of Points

0.5-3

157: Hayden Hidlay, FR

The rightful top seed has a lot of weight on his shoulders. He’ll see fellow Pennsylvania native Garrett Hammond to kick off the tournament and then one of Mike D’Angelo or Taleb Rahmani. In Friday morning's quarterfinals, he could see Tyler Berger, who was Hidlay's first big win of the year.

In the semis, there will be a couple fascinating match options, both of which he should have pretty similar game plans against. Hidlay should try to gas out both Josh Shields and Alec Pantaleo, no matter whom he wrestles.

Seems pretty likely that Hidlay makes the semis, which leaves him placing no lower than sixth. In a field as unpredictable as this one, that makes him an extremely safe and valuable bet. I picked him to win it on FRL, and think he's worth at least 15 points.

Range of Points

10-21

174: Daniel Bullard, FR

Bullard starts off with Yoanse Mejias of Oklahoma, whom Bullard already lost to this season. In the consi round, he'd hit Dean Sherry of Rider, and a win there pits him against Jacobe Smith.

Range of Points

0-2

184: Pete Renda, SR

As the four seed, he'll get two winnable matches on Thursday in Keegan Moore and then Joe Heyob or Steven Schneider. In the quarterfinals, he has Dom Abounader, whom Renda beat in the second round back in 2016. Repeat that, and he'll see Bo Nickal in the semis.

Making it to the consi semis seems to be in the cards. From there, someone like Ryan Preisch will give him issues, but otherwise, Renda will be somewhere in between third and fifth.

Range of Points

12-17

197: Michael Macchiavello, SR

The Wolfpack have a number of guys seeded fourth or fifth, which means crucial quarterfinals. Macchiavello is in that situation after he gets by Thomas Lane and either Jeric Kasunic or Dustin Conti. A win over Shakur Rasheed, as I expect he will, puts him in the semis against Kollin Moore, whom Macchiavello has already beaten this year.

Macchiavello certainly can make the finals, but let's run through his opponents if he loses a round or two earlier. A loss to Rasheed in the quarters puts him against someone like Scottie Boykin or Matt Williams. A loss to Haught in the semis puts him against someone like Jared Haught or Willie Miklus. Macch's point range is virtually the same as Renda's.

Range of Points

13-19

285: Michael Boykin, SR

As the 14 seed, one would think Boykin doesn't have a good shot at placing. But in the second round, he'd see Nick Nevills, the same Nevills he beat at the Southern Scuffle. A repeat of that puts him against either Amar Dhesi or Mike Hughes. He's never wrestled Hughes but lost to Dhesi at the RTOC.

A loss to Nevills puts Boykin against either Shawn Streck or AJ Nevills and then a Dhesi or Hughes match. So either way, he'd hit them. A quarters loss means he faces Derek White or Tanner Hall. Boykin might not place, but he can certainly make this heavyweight bracket interesting.

Range of Points

1-5


The Wolfpack will have their work cut out for them and need to win some quarterfinals to get a team trophy. The recipe for them place in the top four is no different than any other team: get bonus points, outperform their seeds, and get wins from guys who aren't supposed to place.

NC State Points Projection

70