Summer has turned to fall, which means the leaves (and Flo’s logo) are changing from green to red. It also means folkstyle has returned, with the start of the NCAA season coming this Friday!

Preview szn will take into account many things, from weight class rankings to redshirt reports to the crystal ball rankings, to try to give you as clear a picture as possible of what’s in store for the 2019-20 season. The specter of Olympic Trials will hang over the year, impacting weight class changes and the depth of some brackets at the NCAA tournament in Minneapolis.

With the defending champ taking an Olympic Redshirt, as well as former third Logan Massa, and last year's third having graduated, 165 may seem a little thinner. But three-time All-American David McFadden is coming back down, meaning there are seven returning placers in the field. Read on to see who else is in contention to place, who the dark horses are, and what new blood is ready to make an impact right away.

NCAA Previews: 125 | 133 | 141 | 149 | 157

The Favorite: #1 Vincenzo Joseph, Penn State

With five of the top dozen scorers in NCAA tournament history all coming out of the Penn State room in the past decade, it's easy to understand how a guy like Vincenzo Joseph might be overlooked. But he's about to finish off a resume right at the level of some recent Nittany Lions: two titles and three finals, and now starting the year as the preseason #1 for the second time.

Over the years, he's had multiple battles with Isaiah Martinez, Alex Marinelli, and Isaiah White, but we might have to wait for the senior level to see his rivalry with Mekhi Lewis grow. He's never had an undefeated season and he's never won Big Tens, but he could conceivably end his career with over 100 victories and a golf score (combined NCAA finishes) below seven with single digit career losses.

His bonus percentage has gone up every year, so for me I'm looking to see if he can have something like a 30-0 season with a 75% bonus rate, Hodge-like numbers to close out his career. He knows how to win matches on top, he's incredibly difficult to score on, and he can stage comebacks and hit home runs with his inside trip. All of this is to say, the Pittsburgh native is one of the more underappreciated wrestlers of the past 20 years.

Unlock this video, live events, and more with a subscription!

Sign Up

Already a subscriber? Log In

The Contenders

#2 Alex Marinelli, Iowa

#3 Evan Wick, Wisconsin

#4 David McFadden, Virginia Tech

Hard what to make of this grouping here. McFadden pinned Marinelli at NCAAs in 2018, Marinelli has won three straight against Wick, and the Badger has lost twice to McFadden, but Wick has placed the highest of all three at the past two national tournaments. In case you couldn't tell, the seeds and draws in Minneapolis will be massively important.

The Bull has looked amazing during his two straight undefeated regular seasons, but then has faltered a bit with sixth and seventh place finishes at NCAAs. Entering his junior year, he is likely to be seen as the primary threat to Cenzo, having beaten him twice already. Both were #3 on back-to-back senior Big Boards and are wrestling for the nation's top two teams this season, key to the title hopes of both programs.

Wick went from being a 10 seed placing third to a 4 seed placing fourth. With Seth Gross coming in for his senior year, Wick gets a reprieve from being the face of the program this season, and now has a full year working with Jon Reader and Ben Askren to improve his attack rate from neutral and expand his top repertoire beyond his cradle. Hopefully we finally get to see him against Joseph this year.

I thought McFadden was going up for good when Lewis entered the Hokie lineup, but he's back down to where he placed his first two seasons in Blacksburg. The senior leader on this VT squad, you have to wonder how Mekhi's title impacted McFadden. They both are from New Jersey, are very close, and after finishing sixth/sixth/fifth, we may finally see DMC get over the hump. He's only made the semis once, and never won in three trips to the consi semis.

Unlock this video, live events, and more with a subscription!

Sign Up

Already a subscriber? Log In

Best of the Rest

#5 Isaiah White, Nebraska

#6 Josh Shields, Arizona State

#7 Bryce Steiert, Northern Iowa

#9 Shane Griffith, Stanford

Isaiah White is obviously the most difficult question about putting in the championship tier. But he's lost three in a row to Cenzo, four in a row to Wick, and is 0-1 against Marinelli. Additionally, those schools have had national champs more recently than Nebraska save Wisconsin, who had a finalist in 2016 the same year as the Huskers (plus Tyler Berger last year).

Shields was a part of the top ranked 2015 recruiting class for Arizona State, and has now placed twice at NCAAs. But for the Sun Devils to win a team trophy for the first time under Zeke Jones (they are currently tied for fourth with Wisconsin), they'll need to be carried by the back half of their lineup, starting with Shields.

After starting two years for the Panthers coming out of high school, Bryce Steiert took a much needed redshirt. He came back in a much better place and finally placed for UNI, steadily improving from a Round of 16 finish, to the bloodround, and then eighth last season. His next hurdle is Big 12 consistency, with Chandler Rogers graduated but looking to avenge two losses to Demetrius Romero from last year.

Four of the top ranked 165s wrestled in Who's #1, with the most recent being Shane Griffith. Their track record is strong, as Vincenzo has won two titles, McFadden is a 3x AA, and White placed last year for Nebraska (he lost to McFadden back at WNO in 2014). Like Joseph, he also wrestled in and won his match at the Pittsburgh Wrestling Classic as a senior. He made the finals of the U.S. Open at 79kg, before dropping to 74kg and making the finals of the JR Trials. He was a three-time New Jersey state champ for one of the nation's premier programs in Bergen Catholic. If you don't believe Griffith has the pedigree to place as a freshman, you haven't been paying attention.

Sleepers and Landmines

#8 Demetrius Romero, Utah Valley

#11 Thomas Bullard, NC State

#15 Austin Matthews, Northern Colorado

#20 Drew Hughes, Michigan State

Kennedy Monday, North Carolina

Demetrius Romero has career wins over four different AAs: Joe Smitih, Bryce Steiert, Paul Fox, and Logan Massa. With Taylor LaMont taking an Olympic Redshirt, it is now on Romero to become the third placer in the history of Utah Valley. He starts the year ranked eighth, with wins over three guys right below him and coming off a Round of 12 finish. It's not a very big leap to think he can place in Minnesota.

Unlock this video, live events, and more with a subscription!

Sign Up

Already a subscriber? Log In

The teams ranked third through thirteenth are separated by just 13 points right now, the kind of gap that can easily be made up with a few overperformances based on preseason rankings, or bonus points. Willie has them making up some of those points and going from 13th to 5th in his crystal ball rankings. A two-time qualifier, Bullard is the type of guy NC State needs to make up some of that ground this year.

Injured, transfer, small program, good prospect coming out of high school. Austin Matthews is the very definition of a landmine, and with Northern Colorado coming off its best ever recruiting class, they will need the leadership of a sixth year senior to show their freshmen the way.

Similarly, Drew Hughes was #12 on the Big Board coming out of high school and won his match at the PWC. After recovering from injuries and coming back down to 165, he may now be a threat to place. Beyond that, his best position is top and RayVon Foley got the monkey off the back for Roger Chandler's Spartans, so Hughes will have less pressure on him.

Lot of potential candidates for comeback wrestler of the year coming out of this 165 bracket, with Kennedy Monday making his return to the Tar Heels, and now up at the proper weight.

New Blood

#22 Emil Soehnlen, Purdue

Travis Wittlake, Oklahoma State

Phil Conigliaro, Harvard

Peyton Mocco, Missouri

Danny Braunagel, Illinois

Carson Kharchla, Ohio State

Former Ohio state champ and Ironman runner-up Soehnlen slides in for the Boilermakers, yet another solid get for Tony Ersland. From the same class as Soehnlen, Wittlake was #5 on the 2018 Big Board and finally gets his chance to start for the Cowboys.

After recovering from a knee injury he suffered his senior year at National Preps, he had an excellent freestyle season, going 15-5 and placing at both the Open and World Team Trials in Juniors, also making the U23 finals. He beat Travis Wittlake twice in Raleigh and should contend for an EIWA title right away.

Speaking of good freestyle seasons, Braunagel made the Open finals, with wins over Wittlake and Mocco. Between the Lindenwood Open and Midlands, the Illini redshirt freshman was 5-3 against Division I competition. In his only tournament against D1, Mocco beat David Carr at last year's Cyclone Open.

The top ranked 165lb prospect, and the fourth overall prospect on last year's Big Board, there were questions about whether or not Carson Kharchla should go right away. But after beating #12 Ethan Smith in the wrestle-off, the Buckeyes may roll out the true freshman sooner rather than later.

Unlock this video, live events, and more with a subscription!

Sign Up

Already a subscriber? Log In

Key Dates

Nov. 22: Penn State at Arizona

Nov. 24: Nebraska at Northern Iowa

Dec. 1: Wisconsin at Iowa

Dec. 6-7: Cliff Keen Las Vegas

Dec. 29-30: Midlands

Jan. 12: Nebraska at Wisconsin

Jan. 18: Nebraska at Iowa

Jan. 24: Penn State at Nebraska

Jan. 31: Penn State at Iowa

Jan. 31: Stanford at Arizona State

Feb. 7: Penn State at Wisconsin

Feb. 20: Northern Iowa at Wisconsin

Vincenzo has a full slate on his hands, starting with a match against Josh Shields in Tempe, a rematch of last year's semis. This season, Joseph has the preseasons #s 2, 3, 5, and 6 all on the road.

Wick and Marinelli renew their rivalry at Caver-Hawkeye to start December in a match that will help determine Big Ten tournament seeding. The CKLV field includes McFadden, White, Shields, Steiert, Romero, plus potentially Kharchla. We could get yet another Wick/Marinelli matchup at Mildands, plus the bracket includes Steiert and Monday.

The Big Ten grind kicks off hard in January, with a marquee matchup every weekend. Another Wick/White bout comes January 12th in Madison, followed by White against Marinelli in CHA. White's brutal three weekend stretch ends with Cenzo in Lincoln, at which point Joseph sees ZayZay, Marinelli, and Wick in a span of four duals.

That same day as Marinelli vs Joseph, we'll see Shane Griffith against Shields. Somehow Wick and Cenzo have yet to hit, but they are scheduled to on February 7th in Madison. Closing out the season, we'll get Wick vs Steiert the last weekend of the year.

Nomad's Predictions

1. Vincenzo Joseph, Penn State
2. David McFadden, Virginia Tech
3. Alex Marinelli, Iowa
4. Evan Wick, Wisconsin
5. Isaiah White, Nebraska
6. Shane Griffith, Stanford
7. Josh Shields, Arizona State
8. Carson Kharchla, Ohio State

In his folkstyle career, Cenzo went from two straight AAA titles in Pennsylvania for Pittsburgh Central Catholic, and then after a redshirt year, two more NCAA crowns at Penn State. He hit a speed bump in March against the Junior world champ, but has otherwise proved year after year to be able to come on top at the end of each season.

Marinelli might get four more matches against Wick, and they're both juniors, so this song and dance could continue into next season as well. Griffith will get a couple challenges this year (Kharchla, Monday, Shields, the Scuffle), but should have an excellent record heading into NCAAs, though he may struggle with the heavy hipped White.

Shields stays consistent to finish out his career, and I've been betting young, so I'm following that up here. Again, we still don't know if Kharchla goes, but it's too difficult to pick between the Steiert/Romero/Fogarty/Bullard/McCormick group. So I'm leaning on the youngster from a power program.