2018-19 NCAA Preview & Predictions: 197 Pounds

2018-19 NCAA Preview & Predictions: 197 Pounds

2018-19 NCAA Preview & Predictions: 197 Pounds

Oct 11, 2018 by Wrestling Nomad
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After clinching Penn State's seventh title in eight years, Bo Nickal went on a somewhat iconic rant:

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After clinching Penn State's seventh title in eight years, Bo Nickal went on a somewhat iconic rant:

Let's get this. That's what I live for, alright. I train every day so I can come out here and be an NCAA champion. We can win team titles at Penn State, that's what we do!

Understandably, that ruffled quite a few feathers, especially in Columbus. But it's par for the course in the current landscape of college wrestling, in which it's easy to perceive PSU as the Yankees. The whole season built towards an epic back-and-forth team race between the Nittany Lions and Buckeyes, and it crescendoed with Nickal's pin in the NCAA finals.

197lb Preseason Rankings

That will no doubt be on the minds of Ohio State's athletes and coaches on February 8th when they host Penn State, with what very well could be a 1 vs 2 matchup happening at 197 pitting Nickal against Kollin Moore. The junior seems to be the most likely contender to knock off Nickal, but we'll get into some other potential finalists below.

For two straight years, the NCAA finals featured two seniors. All the other placers from Cleveland had eligibility left, but Ben Darmstadt is probably out for the year and Shakur Rasheed is down at 184. There is a lot of good, young talent coming up at 197 that will try to override the typical story of it being a weight class dominated by upperclassmen.

NCAA Previews: 125 | 133 | 141 | 149 | 157 | 165 | 174 | 184 

The Favorite: #1 Bo Nickal, Penn State

Nickal’s third weight change in his career does not change the fact that he’s the odds on favorite to win another NCAA title this season. There’s an argument to be made he was the most dominant wrestler in the country last year, as he spent less time on the mat than his Hodge winning teammate Zain Retherford due to how many first period pins he had.

There have been three 197lb All-Americans at PSU during the Cael era, with Quentin Wright being the Nittany Lion’s only champ at this weight since 2010. They followed that up with a 7-3-2 run by Morgan McIntosh, and then Shakur Rasheed’s seventh place finish last year.

The Hodge is likely a two-horse race between Nickal and Jason Nolf, with both looking to add their third career title. Nickal’s move signals a clear desire to get bigger and stronger for his senior level career at 86kg, but what remains to be seen is if he can hold the same level of dominance that he had at 184. Getting even 90% of that type of performance out of Nickal should help PSU cruise to their fourth straight team title.

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Title Contenders

#2 Kyle Conel, Kent State

#3 Kollin Moore,Ohio State

#5 Willie Miklus, Iowa State

#6 Preston Weigel, Oklahoma State

The major question going into this season was how Conel would follow up his legendary performance in Cleveland. The same guy who beat Moore twice also took a slew of unranked losses in the regular season, and got teched by Weigel in the first period. He did make the U23 Trials finals, but fell in two matches to Moore.

Meanwhile, you've got the pedigree in Moore. Placing third and fourth, with two junior world teams under his belt, he's the clear best guy not named Nickal. For Moore, what needs to be seen is if his bonus rate can get back to where it was as a freshman. If so, I don't see any way how he isn't wrestling on Saturday night in Pittsburgh. Him being on the U23 world team should limit how much we see him in the first semester though.

Miklus is the steady veteran, having placed at every national tournament he's wrestled in, though never higher than sixth. Will the move to Iowa State, back close to this family, allow Miklus to see his full potential in his final year of eligibility? Or can the Cyclones come close to getting the same production out of him that the coaching staff in Columbia achieved these past few years? His body holding up should well determine both of those answers.

As a whole, Oklahoma State severely underperformed at NCAAs. Year-over-year, there were five Cowboys who wrestled at the 2017 national tournament that also wrestled in March a year later. Combined, they scored nearly 50 fewer points in 2018 than they did in 2017, a statistically significant number not helped by Weigel's body falling apart. He was completely hobbled by the end of the year, but might have the best top game of any 197 in the country.

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Sleepers and Landmines

#10 Chris Weiler, Lehigh

#16 Tom Sleigh, Virginia Tech

#17 Eric Schultz, Nebraska

#20 Ben Honis, Cornell.

In the ever moving target that is a sleeper and/or landmine, the undersized Weiler is a perfect candidate. He is a tremendous scrambler who proved an excellent foil for Darmstadt, nearly knocking off the Cornell freshman in the EIWA semis. Sleigh left the EIWA, making things a little easier for Weiler, and is now in Blacksburg. A three-time qualifier, the transfer has the opportunity to help ease the Hokies 197 transition in the post Jared Haught era.

Schultz was third at U23 Trials and was #35 on the 2016 Big Board. Working with NCAA fourth placer Taylor Venz every day doesn't hurt, and he could be the excellent example of someone who could sneak onto the podium in a weight that is known for such a thing. Rob Koll is too historically good at maximizing one or two guys and turning them into AAs, but the loss of Damion Hahn might mitigate that in the upperweights.

New Blood

#12 Jacob Warner, Iowa

#14 Jake Woodley, Oklahoma

Warner's redshirt season left us with some head scratchers, just like his two trips to age level world championships. As a blue chip recruit, there is every possibility those were growing pains that have been sorted out and he is already the force many of us think he's going to become. He's unquestionably crucial to Iowa pushing for a second place finish behind Penn State in 2019, and then following that up with a title run in 2020, both of which aren't out of the question. If his bottom game has improved and he can stop duck unders, the sky is the limit for the Illinois native.

Woodley was a two-time Pennsylvania state champ who split with Warner last season. He had a decent spring on the freestyle circuit and is one of several key recruits for the Sooners entering their redshirt freshman season, at least one of whom is likely to make a breakthrough in 2019.

Key Dates

Nov. 9th: Iowa at Kent State (Warner vs Conel)

Nov. 11th: Kent State at Penn State (Conel vs Nickal)

Nov. 16th: Princeton at Iowa (Brucki vs Warner)

Dec. 1st: Iowa State at Iowa (Miklus vs Warner)

Jan. 12th: Oklahoma State at Princeton (Weigel vs Brucki)

Jan. 27th: Iowa State at Oklahoma State (Miklus vs Weigel)

Feb. 1st: Northern Iowa at Oklahoma State (Holschlag vs Weigel)

Feb. 8th: Penn State at Ohio State (Nickal vs Moore)

Feb. 22nd: Iowa State at Northern Iowa (Miklus vs Holschlag)

Feb. 24th: Iowa at Oklahoma State (Warner vs Weigel)

A pretty even distribution of top guys hitting, with no one getting slammed by facing Top-10s over and over. Penn State, Oklahoma State, and Iowa State will be at the Scuffle, while Iowa, Princeton, and Northern Iowa are going to Midlands.

Nomad's Prediction

  1. Bo Nickal, Penn State
  2. Kollin Moore, Ohio State
  3. Preston Weigel, Oklahoma State
  4. Pat Brucki, Princeton
  5. Chris Weiler, Lehigh
  6. Jacob Warner, Iowa
  7. Willie Miklus, Iowa State
  8. Kyle Conel, Kent State

Kollin Moore is a phenomenal wrestler, but Nickal is working on an all-time career. Nickal is an upgrade over Anthony Cassar, who beat Moore last season.

If Weigel's healthy, he's good enough to make the finals. His ability to pick up back points from a cross wrist tilt and riding time in general is an extremely valuable asset. But he's also coming off injury and has shown a few times that he'll have minor lapses which cost him against theoretically inferior opponents.

I'm very high on Brucki, but it is admittedly difficult to see Princeton placing a guy that high who is not named Matt Kolodzik. But the sophomore has a sneaky good resume and is likely part of that transition to a younger group of placers at 197 that I referenced earlier.

A beefed up Weiler is problems for the rest of this weight, but the real story here is picking Warner to finish sixth. I am on record that those saying Warner can make the finals need to pump the brakes, and that there's a really good chance he won't even place. But this is a hedge based on the arguments of my co-workers, as well as an indictment of the weight somewhat that it's just hard to trust some of those other guys in the Top-10 to land on the podium.

Jacob Holschlag is very tough, but for some reason I have views of Drew Foster and Max Thomsen placing in 2017 and not in 2018 going through my head. I don't feel comfortable about Miklus in spite of his stellar career thus far due to concerns that sixth year guys bodies might just be shot. Nathan Traxler is ranked eighth in the preseason, and I think he'll be one of those guys who is in the bloodround match in the third period, the place where a bit of randomness is to be expected.

Stephen Loiseau is one of the most unorthodox guys in the country and one who can finagle himself a high seed. Brunner's two wins over Warner, plus his major over Kyle Conel and victory over Nate Rotert, have been noted. But he's got enough losses in the other direction to give pause to place. What's clear though is that Purdue has a number of guys in the mix to be in the Round of 12, and to be honest, if you can make the bloodround you can make the podium.