2018-19 NCAA Preview & Predictions: 174 Pounds

2018-19 NCAA Preview & Predictions: 174 Pounds

Previewing the 2018-19 NCAA season at 174 pounds, including sleepers, predictions, and key dates to watch.

Oct 10, 2018 by Wrestling Nomad
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Today is the first official day of Division I practice for the 2018-19 season, and lucky for you we're up to 174 pounds in our NCAA previews.

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Today is the first official day of Division I practice for the 2018-19 season, and lucky for you we're up to 174 pounds in our NCAA previews.

Besides being the weight everyone debates is either the end of the middle weights or the start of the upper weights, 174 will also be a fascinating weight to watch this season. The injection of several All-Americans from 157 and 165 provides a bunch of and talent at the top, and the schedule shakes out in a way that nearly all of them wind up wrestling each other during the regular season.

174lb Preseason Rankings

Last year's fifth placer in Bo Jordan and seventh placer in David Kocer have graduated, and Oklahoma State is still deciding if Jacobe Smith or Chandler Rogers will start here. In total, eight of last year's final Top-20 are out of eligibility. But the addition of Michael Kemerer and David McFadden, plus freshman Mikey Labriola, should make up for that somewhat.

Let's see how the perception of this weight has changed since FRL 313, when we did the 174lb tiers. On to the full preview.

NCAA Previews: 125 | 133 | 141 | 149 | 157 | 165

The Favorite: #1 Zahid Valencia, Arizona State

Coming off an undefeated season in which he twice beat Mark Hall, Zahid Valencia went to the World Team Trials and beat Alex Dieringer, soundly. He also gave Kyle Dake a much tougher match at Final X than just about anyone expected, underscoring the level he’s reached at this point.

His only loss in two years is the infamous headgear pull against Hall in the 2017 NCAA semis. Since then, his shot count has only went up, and his setups and finishes keep Hall from doing what he does best: scoring off his opponent’s offense.

Valencia is of course not bulletproof, giving up the first takedown to Taylor Lujan in the CKLV semis and the first two takedowns to Myles Amine in the NCAA semis. However, he produces a stressful shot count that no one in the country was able to figure out last season. His title defense will be littered with challenges, as he could hit all the top contenders except for Rogers/Smith prior to the NCAA tournament.

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The Clear #2: Mark Hall, Penn State

Aside from winning Pan Ams, Hall took a summer off of freestyle for the first time, well, ever. Penn State as a whole basically sat out the freestyle season, seemingly wanting to recover from a title defense that took every ounce of their energy both throughout the season and in Cleveland. We’ve never known Hall to be injured, at least not publicly, but an offseason off to rest up and get away from wrestling is a scary thought.

The next step in Hall’s game is to separate himself from other Top-10 guys. He averaged better than a major every time he stepped on the mat in the 2017-18 season, but putting at least 3-4 points between himself and the likes of Amine, Michael Kemerer, and Jordan Kutler would show Hall has reached a whole ‘nother level.

Unlike last season, when there was a controversy about who should be the top seed at NCAAs because Hall and Valencia did not have a regular season meeting, they will meet in December this year. The dual immediately before that will be against Lehigh, so if Hall beats both Valencia and Kutler, he won't have another "tough" match until seeing Amine in the dual at the Bryce Jordan Center on February 1.

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Best of the Rest

#3 Myles Amine, Michigan

#4 Daniel Lewis, Missouri

#5 David McFadden, Virginia Tech

#6 Michael Kemerer, Iowa

#7 Jordan Kutler, Lehigh

#8 Chandler Rogers, Oklahoma State

There might not be a more defined Top-8 at any weight than 174lbs, considering each of them was on the podium in Cleveland. It could make for an anticlimactic NCAAs, or it could mean the upsets we might see will be even more dramatic and iconic.

In order for Amine to push himself into the national title conversation, he’ll have to improve his mat game. Riding time cost him matches against Mark Hall and Jordan Kutler, and he got ridden out in the second period against Daniel Lewis. However, he can legitimately win a takedown battle against anyone in the country at this weight.

Lewis is ahead of McFadden in the rankings, but it should be noted that McFadden beat Lewis 8-4 in their only folkstyle meeting, as well as twice in a row this summer in the 79kg finals of the U23 trials. They would have seen each other on November 16 in Columbia, MO, but U23 worlds will interfere with that.

Kemerer is perhaps the most fascinating wrinkle of the season, as he has zero results against any of these guys. His third and fourth place finishes at 157 are encouraging, but many wrestlers who bump up have some early struggles as their body adjusts to having to produce more oxygen for their muscles. For a guy whose pace is as high as Kemdawg's, that might come into play this season.

Kutler's jump from the 2017 to 2018 seasons should provide solace for Iowa fans, as the Lehigh junior was clearly able to succeed at a similar level to what he saw at 157. An injury at NCAAs ensured he placed sixth, having to forfeit his last match. He split with Amine during the year, beating him in Bethlehem and falling in the quarterfinals at the national tournament.

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Again, we still don't know if two-time placer at 165 Chandler Rogers will start, or if it will be last year's eighth placer in Jacobe Smith. Either way, the Cowboys will have a very potent option here, both of whom can throw and should be a fixture in the Top-10, though Rogers probably has a little bit higher upside having beaten Lewis multiple times.

Sleepers and Landmines

#12 Ben Harvey, Army West Point

#15 Drew Hughes Michigan State

#18 Daniel Bullard, NC State

#20 Devin Skatzka, Minnesota

Harvey had a sneaky good season, beating the likes of Keaton Subjeck, Johnny Sebastian, Jadaen Bernstein, Ethan Ramos, and Seldon Wright. A perfect example of a "sleeper" pick in this weight, considering the eight All-Americans mentioned above, as well #9 Taylor Lujan and #10 Dylan Lydy, who we'll get to below.

Hughes is coming back from a serious injury that cut his season short last year, and is very good on top. After seeing what Tariq Wilson did at NCAAs and knowing the pedigree of guys coming out of that Wolfpack room, Bullard is a perfect sleeper pick. I clearly seem to like transfers, so why not extrapolate Skatzka qualifying twice at Indiana to increased success with the Gophers in 2019.

New Blood

#11 Mikey Labriola, Nebraska

Anthony Mantanona, Oklahoma

Travis Stefanik, Princeton

Marcus Coleman, Iowa State

A very fun group incoming at this weight, all of whom were mentioned in the redshirt report. The newcomers are very fun to follow as they transition into starters in their second year on campus.

Labriola was #5 on the 2017 Big Board for good reason, and he backed it up by beating two All-Americans during his redshirt year. He'll come in with some of the best leg attacks in the country, so it will be fun to see him matchup with those in the 7-15 range and see where he stacks up.

Mantanona's upside is off the charts and he can go upper body as well. Stefanik enjoyed a fine greyshirt year and looked solid in freestyle this spring. Coleman is part of a big change in Ames, as he, Austin Gomez, and David Carr could all make an impact this season.

Key Dates

Nov. 16th: Lehigh at Michigan (Kutler vs Amine)

Dec. 2nd: Lehigh at Penn State (Kutler vs Hall)

Dec. 8th: Lehigh at Iowa (Kutler vs Kemerer)

Dec. 14th: Arizona State at Penn State (Valencia vs Hall)

Dec. 29th: Missouri vs Lehigh (Lewis vs Kutler)

Jan. 5th: Michigan at Arizona State (Amine vs Valencia)

Jan. 26th: Arizona State at Lehigh (Valencia vs Kutler

Feb. 1st: Michigan at Penn State (Amine vs Hall)

Feb. 8th: Missouri at Arizona State (Lewis vs Valencia)

Feb. 16th: Oklahoma State at Missouri (Rogers vs Lewis)

Feb. 24th: Iowa at Oklahoma State (Rogers vs Kemerer)

As you can see, this season could not be any more jam packed with AAs facing each other at all points of the year. Hall and Kemerer seem to get the easier end, but even they will be tested throughout the year.

Additionally, all three of CKLV, Midlands, and Scuffle could see three or more Top-10 guys from this weight.

Nomad's Predictions

  1. Zahid Valencia, Arizona State
  2. Mark Hall, Penn State
  3. Myles Amine, Michigan
  4. Michael Kemerer, Iowa
  5. David McFadden, Virginia Tech
  6. Jordan Kutler, Lehigh
  7. Chandler Rogers, Oklahoma State
  8. Daniel Lewis, Missouri

I've said it before, and I'll say it again: I will pick Zahid Valencia over Mark Hall for the rest of their college careers. How lucky are we that the top recruit from the Class of 2015 and the top recruit from the Class of 2016 ended up at the same weight?

Amine is too good on his feet to see him drop out of the top four. While I'm still hesitant on Kemerer, seeing how well Kutler did last year makes me feel confident he'll be at the same level he was at 157.

McFadden wins the all New Jersey battle for fifth in a match of the 2017 University nationals champ at 80kg against the 79kg champ from this year's U23 Trials. Rogers hasn't lost to Lewis, so why start now?

Taylor Lujan might go down as one of the best guys to never place. He's the easy choice to sneak in and fix that this season, but it's extremely difficult to see his results against last year's placers and picture that happening this season.

Dylan Lydy's wins over Amine and Labriola certainly warrant mention, but many of his 14 losses also give me pause when picking him to place. Labriola seems more likely than either Lydy or Lujan to place, and navigating that difficult Big Ten season will play a huge part in that.

With any luck, we'll get another two Hall/Valencia classics and the rest of this weight will play out in a much more interesting way than how I have it finishing here.