2018-19 NCAA Preview & Predictions: 133-Pounds

2018-19 NCAA Preview & Predictions: 133-Pounds

Previewing the 2018-19 NCAA season at 133 lbs, including sleepers, predictions, and key dates to watch.

Oct 3, 2018 by Andrew Spey
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Now that someone has kindly awakened that guy from Green Day, we know it's October and time to start rolling out the NCAA weight class previews. Our own Wrestling Nomad has ably tackled the lightest weight class, illuminating the path for me to humbly present your guide to the 2018-19 NCAA 133-pound division.

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Now that someone has kindly awakened that guy from Green Day, we know it's October and time to start rolling out the NCAA weight class previews. Our own Wrestling Nomad has ably tackled the lightest weight class, illuminating the path for me to humbly present your guide to the 2018-19 NCAA 133-pound division.

133-Pound Preseason Rankings

Like the preceding weight class, the 2018 NCAA champion returns to collegiate competition this upcoming season. Unlike 125-pound rising sophomore Spencer Lee, South Dakota State's Seth Gross is entering his final year of eligibility, so these are your last opportunities to catch Gross in a Jackrabbit singlet.  

133 pounds is a good one, but before we start digging into the minutiae, feel free to take a moment to peruse last year's 133-pound preview. Wow, I did not see Tariq Wilson coming. But you probably didn't either, so no shame there. 

OK, enough of the past — it's time to look to the future! 

The Favorite

Seth Gross, South Dakota State

No surprise here. Gross has been nearly invincible ever since making the move down from 141 after his redshirt freshman season. Following the drop in weight class Gross has lost just three times: once to Eric Montoya in sudden victory in the semifinals of the 2016 Midlands, once to Cory Clark in the finals of the finals of the 2017 NCAA Championship, and once after bumping back up to 141 for a supermatch against Bryce Meredith when both were ranked #1 in their respective weight classes. 

Watch Gross and Meredith's epic battle in its entirety below.

Seth Gross vs Bryce Meredith

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If Gross has a vulnerability, it's possible it's his susceptibility to leg attacks. But getting to Gross's legs is one thing, finishing is another. And you're going to need to score a lot of takedowns, because Gross is probably going to score some back points on you and pick up a riding time point as well. 

Past success is no guarantee for future results, but Gross just needs to maintain his current level of dominance to secure a third finals appearance and second straight 133-pound title. There will be no shortage of contenders looking to disrupt those plans, but Gross, already the first Jackrabbit champion in program history, will be added to his legacy in Brookings, South Dakota, with every match of the season. 

The Contenders

#2 Stevan Micic, Michigan

#3 Tariq Wilson, North Carolina State

#9 Daton Fix, Oklahoma State

Stevan Micic, the Serbian Sickle, reached the NCAA finals before falling to Gross 13-8. He's been keeping busy since then, winning a European bronze medal in freestyle while competing for Serbian Wrestling Federation. Though he stumbled at the CKLV early in the 2017-18 season, losing to Luke Pletcher and Austin DeSanto, he was perfect the rest of the way until the NCAA finals. Micic's freestyle success provides a glimmer of hope that he can make the necessary gains to overtake Gross.

Tariq Wilson had a prototypical breakout performance at NCAAs, reaching the semifinals without the benefit of a seed. It wasn't even clear Wilson would be the Wolfpack starter until late in the season. The redshirt freshman from Steubenville, Ohio, lost twice to his teammate, Jamel Morris, in two separate fall events, the Journeymen Collegiate Classic and the Wolfpack Open. Even after winning the starting spot, Wilson was very much a sleeper pick, finishing fourth in the ACC Tournament. 

But inside the Quicken Loans Arena, Tariq was a man on a mission. Not only did Wilson beat the #3, #4, and #5 seeds on his way to a third-place trophy, but he did so in a convincing manner, the smallest margin of victory being 8-3. Wilson feasted on legs the entire tournament and gave Seth Gross his toughest match of the season — against a fellow 133-pounder at least. 

Watch Wilson push Gross to the brink in the 2018 NCAA semifinals:

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Finally, we have Daton Fix, who is the biggest wildcard of our list of contenders. First, there is the possibility of him going 125 pounds. Second, there is his limited body of work in folkstyle at the collegiate level. However, winning three consecutive junior world medals in freestyle as well as U23 national title gives Fix enough credentials to know he is the real deal. 

Additionally, we should note that if Nick Suriano goes 133, as it is rumored he might, then he too would be a contender for the 133-pound NCAA crown. And if either Fix or Suriano would like to publically declare at which weight class they will be spending the next season competing that would be just super. 

Best of the Rest

#4 Luke Pletcher, Ohio State

#5 Ethan Lizak, Minnesota

#6 Scott Parker, Lehigh

#7 Montorie Bridges, Wyoming

#8 Austin DeSanto, Iowa

Everyone else in the top eight of our preseason rankings has shown flashes of brilliance that place them in our contenders' penumbra. Pletcher was undefeated until late in the season. Though he beat Micic in the CKLV, Micic would have his revenge in the next three consecutive matchups, culminating in an 8-4 win in the NCAA semifinals, putting some distance between him and his intraconference rival. 

Lizak is the most distinguished of this bunch, having reached the NCAA finals in 2017 and placing fourth last season, albeit at 125 pounds. If the one they call Backpack can continue stretching out and frustrating opponents up a weight class, he may move himself up into the contender category. 

Bridges and Parker are both All-Americans with many quality wins, however, they have not quite broken through to the top tier of the division, at least not yet. 

Finally, there is DeSanto, who last season was an electric factory from neutral but struggled mightily from the bottom position. If the move from Drexel to Iowa pays off, DeSanto could vault himself into title contention. However, that's a big if, as DeSanto's distinctive style will be thoroughly scouted, and the competition will be prepared for his tricep control fireman's carries and dumps. 

Watch DeSanto nearly tech NCAA runnerup Stevan Micic at the CKLV:

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Sleepers and Landmines

#16 Josh Terao, American

#18 Micky Phillippi, Pittsburgh

Gary Wayne Harding, North Carolina

Brian Courtney, Virginia

Are these dark horses? Neigh, they are sleepers and landmines. To identify dark horses requires hindsight. Here we are identifying potential future dark horses. A subtle but necessary distinction. And to keep things interesting, we're limited ourselves to low or unranked wrestlers who were not at the top of the list of high school blue-chip recruits their senior year. 

Josh Terao appeared to be turning the corner with his finals appearance at the 2017 CKLV (a lot of stuff happens at the CKLV, you should tune in to this year's event on November 30th and December 1!) but the Flyin Hawaiin couldn't get over the hump at nationals. Even if he misses the podium again on his final attempt, Terao is no one's ideas of a lucky draw. 

I'm cheating on our own rules with Micky Phillippi, who was technically #16 on the Big Board, but that was back in 2015, and this will be Phillippi's first year of varsity action, so I think the world is due for a reminder that Micky is still very much in the mix at 133. 

Big Game Gary Wayne removed one piece of the puzzle from the lightweight log jam at Oklahoma State by transferring to North Carolina. He could benefit from the tutelage of Coleman Scott and Tony Ramos and make something happen in his senior season. 

And while not as big a name as some of the other folks in the section below, Brian Courtney was a sought after if not top 30 recruit. Given Virginia's recent track record with lightweights like Jack Mueller and Louie Hayes, it would be foolish to overlook Courtney's chances as he takes over 133 for the Cavaliers and a redshirting Mueller. 

New Blood

Roman Bravo-Young, Penn State

Austin Gomez, Iowa State

Vito Arujau, Cornell

I'm not sure if Nomad was or wasn't counting redshirt freshman in his 125-pound New Blood section, but I am in mine, because you need to know about all these guys and the Contender and Best of the Rest categories are already getting crowded. 

Bravo-Young is a true freshman who ended up ranked #12 in the class of 2018 Big Board. Penn State was all over that class, and the young man from Sunnyside, Arizona will likely be counted on by Cael and Co. to man the 133-pound weight class for the Nittany Lions this season. RBY has been making high school wrestling headlines for a while now, having participated in the last two editions of Who's #1. His long-awaited college debut cannot come soon enough.

Watch Bravo-Young take out Nick Raimo in the 2016 WNO event:

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Both Gomez and Arujau had solid if not spectacular seasons deferring eligibility. Arujau was ranked #4 on the Class of 2017 Big Board while Gomez was #11, however, Gomez recently gained the upper-hand by beating Arujau in two instant classic matches at the 2018 Junior World Team Trials

Speaking of the 2017 Big Board, that class is turning into a monster for the 133-pound weight class, as it also includes #1 Daton Fix and #17 Austin DeSanto, among others who are sure to emerge in the upcoming season. 

Key Dates

  • November 16 - Lehigh at Michigan (Micic vs Parker)
  • November 17 - Oklahoma State at South Dakota State (Gross vs Fix)
  • November 18 - Oklahoma State at Minnesota (Lizak vs Fix)
  • November 25 - South Dakota State at Minnesota (Lizak vs Gross, how's that for back-to-back duals for Gross and Lizak?)
  • November 25 - Wyoming at Oklahoma State (Fix vs Bridges, how about Fix's back-to-back-to-back duals?)
  • January 6 - North Carolina State at Ohio State (Pletcher vs Wilson)
  • January 13 - Iowa at Minnesota (Lizak vs DeSanto)
  • January 25 - Michigan at Ohio State (Pletcher vs Micic)
  • February 1 - North Carolina State at Virginia (Courtney vs Wilson)
  • February 10 - South Dakota State at Wyoming (Bridges vs Gross)
  • February 24 - Iowa at Oklahoma State (every dang match will be fire)

Like my colleague Danie Lobdell, I did not include CKLV, Reno, Midlands, or Scuffle in the above list. Unlike my esteemed colleague, I will spell out the full names of the months of the year of our key dates like a real professional. Anyway, those events take place between November 30th and January 2nd and will greatly affect the rankings and NCAA seeds. 

Your pre-Turkey Day dual slate is a veritable cornucopia of juicy match ups. And even if Fix doesn't go 133, the Cowboys will still have some stud manning the weight class, so keeps those dates circled on your calendar regardless. 

And then, capping the regular season off with Iowa at Oklahoma State is just perfect. That dual meet will surely be making many appearances in this section of subsequent weight classes. 

Spey's Spredictions

1st: Seth Gross, South Dakota State

2nd: Stevan Micic, Michigan

3rd: Daton Fix, Oklahoma State

4th: Tariq Wilson, North Carolina State

5th: Luke Pletcher, Ohio State

6th: Ethan Lizak, Minnesota

7th: Austin DeSanto, Iowa

8th: Austin Gomez, Iowa State

R12: Vito Arujau, Cornell

R12: Roman Bravo-Young, Penn State

R12: Scott Parker, Lehigh

R12: Montorie Bridges, Wyoming

I predict all the way out to the Round of 12, unlike Nomad, who is a coward. 

Whilst gazing into my scrying pool, I see a repeat of Cleveland's finals happening in Pittsburgh. I also see a lot of youth being served. Fix at third may be a risky pick but I think based on talent, Fix is at least the third best wrestler in the weight. I think the size and experience of Gross and Micic get the better of Fix, though, and I could also see Wilson giving Fix problems. But for now, I think a wrestler of Fix's pedigree will be able to figure out the very talented Tariq Wilson. If Wilson does make the jump over Fix — or Micic or Gross — it will represent one of the most meteoric rises in wrestling history. 

There is absolutely zero disrespect intended by me in picking a pair of returning All-Americans to get stopped in the bloodround, but that's how much I think of the rest of the contenders. Luke Pletcher, entering his third year in Columbus, spent the entirety of last season in the top 10, and is expected to be a force all year. 

I think Lizak will continue to do Lizak things at 133, and I think DeSanto has found himself in a great spot to excel in Iowa City and finds a way into the final eight this time. 

I was torn on who to pick who for the final AA spot. I went with the guy who won the Junior World Team Trials, although I wouldn't be shocked in the slightest if the order got reversed and Arujau placed ahead of Gomez. Neither will I be shocked if Bridges and Parker wrestle on Saturday of the NCAAs once again.

Finally, while I would like nothing more than to see true freshman Roman Bravo-Young attain All-American status this season, at the moment I've simply run out of podium steps for them. 

That does it for 133. Preview time continues tomorrow with Nomad and a killer 141-pound weight class. Stay tuned my friends!