2020 NCAAs: By The Numbers

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Yes, we will be missing a pretty big component of what a by-the-numbers article typically analyzes. But no, we won't let that keep us from forging ahead with all the numbers we can think to crunch pertaining the 2020 NCAA Tournament that never was. 

Previous NCAAs' By-the-Numbers: 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014

We've already done some preliminary data slog, based off the list of entries and seeds, which is, unfortunately, all we are going to get in 2020. Kyle tallied the number of qualifiers by school, as well as creating these nifty best lineups based on home states. And your humble blogger got to work on his heat map game as soon as possible, which you can check out here

My personal favorite heat map from this year's qualifiers is below, but do revisit the article for more details. 


Let's start the new analysis by calculating the team scores based on projected tournament points from the seeds, excluding bonus points. 

Tournament Points From Seeds Per School

RANKSCHOOLPOINTS
1Iowa122.5
2Penn State76.5
3Ohio State66.5
4Northwestern47.5
5Nebraska46.5
6Oklahoma State45.5
7Purdue42
8Princeton41
9Iowa State38
10Minnesota36
11Northern Iowa35
12NC State33.5
13Wisconsin33
13Arizona State33
15Lehigh31
16Stanford29
17Cornell26.5
18Virginia Tech24.5
19Pittsburgh24
20Michigan21.5
20Central Michigan21.5
22North Carolina21
23Virginia20
24West Virginia16
24Campbell16
26Oklahoma15.5
27Missouri15
28Rider14.5
29Binghamton12.5
30Illinois11
31Michigan State9.5
32Wyoming7
33Utah Valley6.5
33South Dakota State6.5
35North Dakota State5.5
36Army5
37Rutgers4.5
37Northern Colorado4.5
39Navy4
39Clarion4
41American3.5
42Old Dominion3
43Penn2.5
43Harvard2.5
43Fresno State2.5
46VMI2
46Oregon State2
46Lock Haven2
46Kent State2
46Bucknell2
51Ohio1.5
51Cleveland State1.5
51Cal Poly1.5
51Appalachian State1.5
55Northern Illinois1
55Indiana1
55Chattanooga1
55Buffalo1
59SIU-Edwardsville0.5
59George Mason0.5
59Edinboro0.5
59Drexel0.5
59CSU-Bakersfield0.5
59Columbia0.5
65The Citadel0
65Maryland0
65Hofstra0
65Duke0
65Bloomsburg0


The story all year long was that it was Iowa's title to lose. That assumption is supported by the seeding committee.

Incidentally, 69 different schools qualified a wrestler in the field of 330 total competitors. 

How did this year's teams do compared to their recent historical average? We took the average points scored (based on tournament finish with no bonus points factored in. Apologies but we don't have the precise tournament scores handy) from the years 2016-2019 and compared to the expected points based on the 2020 seeds. The final column is the difference between this year and the previous four-year average. 

SCHOOL20204YR AVGDELTA
Iowa13570.364.8
Penn State84.5111.0-26.5
Ohio State7786.9-9.9
Northwestern57.510.447.1
Nebraska5743.313.8
Minnesota54.532.921.6
Wisconsin5322.430.6
Purdue48.55.143.4
Lehigh47.532.015.5
Northern Iowa4519.825.3
Oklahoma State4568.6-23.6
NC State4436.08.0
Princeton43.515.827.8
Iowa State40.513.327.3
Arizona State36.527.59.0
Pittsburgh364.631.4
Cornell3248.6-16.6
Virginia3212.919.1
Michigan2947.8-18.8
Virginia Tech28.549.8-21.3
Central Michigan27.57.020.5
North Carolina2515.19.9
Stanford2211.310.8
Missouri2155.9-34.9
Campbell202.917.1
Rider18.58.99.6
Illinois1832.6-14.6
West Virginia173.513.5
Army162.513.5
Oklahoma1611.84.3
Binghamton14.51.013.5
South Dakota State1415.6-1.6
Michigan State13.52.610.9
North Dakota State11.52.98.6
Rutgers9.528.9-19.4
Northern Colorado90.98.1
Wyoming916.1-7.1
Harvard80.97.1
Navy87.50.5
Utah Valley84.13.9
Fresno State7.52.84.8
Old Dominion7.57.40.1
American6.54.42.1
Appalachian State6.53.13.4
Clarion6.50.95.6
Lock Haven6.514.3-7.8
Chattanooga51.04.0
Ohio52.52.5
Northern Illinois4.52.61.9
Bucknell42.51.5
Drexel41.62.4
Oregon State414.3-10.3
SIU-Edwardsville42.31.8
Penn3.56.3-2.8
Buffalo31.51.5
Indiana34.6-1.6
Kent State39.5-6.5
Cal Poly2.50.61.9
Cleveland State2.50.91.6
Columbia2.51.41.1
VMI2.50.02.5
Bloomsburg20.02.0
CSU-Bakersfield22.5-0.5
Edinboro25.5-3.5
Hofstra22.8-0.8
Maryland24.9-2.9
George Mason1.51.00.5
Duke111.5-10.5
The Citadel10.01.0


Every team was disappointed the NCAAs got canceled, but this illustrates just how painful it must have been for the Hawkeyes and their fans. Purdue, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Princeton, and UNI aren't too far behind on the heartbreak scale.

And just for fun, I made this conditionally formatted table of the top 15 teams in average points scored per weight class over the last five years (still using the NCAA placement and 2020 seeds for point total approximations). 



Now's let's break things down by conference. And going forward, when we discuss "points" it will be tournament points derived from the seeds. 

National Qualifiers per Conference

CONF

NQs

Big Ten92
Big 1260
EIWA56
MAC50
ACC38
SoCon17
Pac 1217




Top 8 Seeds per Conference

CONF

Top 8

Big Ten38
Big 1212
EIWA10
ACC9
Pac 125
MAC4
SoCon2



Points per Conference

CONF

POINTS

Big Ten518
Big 12182.5
EIWA131.5
ACC123
MAC68.5
Pac 1266
SoCon20.5




The Big Ten dominated but if you divide those points by the number of teams in each conference, you can see how much power the ACC packs into just 6 programs. 

Points per Conference per Team

CONFPOINTSTEAMSPTS/TEAM
Big Ten5181437.0
ACC123620.5
Big 12182.51215.2
Pac 1266611.0
EIWA131.5177.7
MAC68.5154.6
SoCon20.582.6


Now let's do home states. 

Qualifiers per Home State

40 different states (plus two foreign countries!) had 2020 NCAA qualifiers. That's too many states for a pie chart, so a simple bar graph will do. The numbers are in the table below.

STATENQs
STATENQs
Pennsylvania48
Wisconsin3
Ohio31
Idaho3
Illinois28
Arizona3
New Jersey23
West Virginia2
California19
Washington2
New York17
North Dakota2
Michigan17
Montana2
Minnesota16
Massachusetts2
Iowa13
Kansas2
Indiana13
Wyoming1
Virginia10
Tennessee1
Georgia9
South Dakota1
Colorado9
South Carolina1
Missouri8
Rhode Island1
Oklahoma7
New Mexico1
Florida6
Nebraska1
Texas5
Maine1
North Carolina5
Finland1
Maryland5
Connecticut1
Utah4
Belarus1
Oregon4
Alabama1


Top 8 per Home State



Points per Home State

RANKSTATEPTS
1Pennsylvania181
2Ohio124
3Illinois121
4New Jersey85
5Minnesota74
6Indiana72.5
7Michigan46
8New York45
9Florida29
10California29


A strong year for Pennsylvania no double. Illinois and Indiana had better than usual seasons as well. Now let's compare the points-based off seasons from 2020 to how these top 10 states did at the NCAAs in the previous four seasons. 

STATE20162017201820192020
Pennsylvania171154.5230208181
Ohio142143.513879124
Illinois706731.574.5121
New Jersey83.557.5113155.585
Minnesota2771.5705074
Indiana618.54736.572.5
Michigan7358.550.570.546
New York4337456545
Florida125.571329
California7756655629


Ohio was ready to rebound after an off 2019, Illinois was poised to have perhaps their best season in many years, and New York and Florida both looked ready to have banners years as well. New Jersey was likely to regress back to their mean, while California did not look like they would reach their typical level. 

Iowa and Missouri were in the top 10 cumulative tournament points (simulated, not actual) from 2015-2019 but did not crack the top 10 in 2020. 

And now, because I am a fan of the per capita calculations, here are the number of 2020 national qualifiers per state per million inhabitants (as of the 2019 census estimates).

2020 National Qualifiers per State per Capita 

StateNQs/1M Pop
Iowa4.12
Pennsylvania3.75
Minnesota2.84
Ohio2.65
North Dakota2.62
New Jersey2.59
Illinois2.21
Indiana1.93
Montana1.87
Oklahoma1.77
Wyoming1.73
Michigan1.70
Idaho1.67
Colorado1.56
Missouri1.30
Utah1.25
Virginia1.17
South Dakota1.13
West Virginia1.12
Oregon0.95
Rhode Island0.94
New York0.87
Georgia0.85
Maryland0.83
Maine0.74
Kansas0.69
Nebraska0.52
Wisconsin0.52
California0.48
New Mexico0.48
North Carolina0.48
Arizona0.41
Massachusetts0.29
Connecticut0.28
Florida0.28
Washington0.26
Alabama0.20
South Carolina0.19
Texas0.17
Tennessee0.15


And now, because of the numbers right in front of me, here's the same calculation but over the last five years.

StateNQs/1M Pop
Pennsylvania20.9
Iowa19.0
South Dakota14.7
New Jersey14.2
Ohio12.7
Minnesota11.2
Oklahoma10.9
Illinois10.7
Wyoming10.4
Michigan8.6
Missouri8.3
West Virginia7.8
Colorado7.6
Indiana6.7
Oregon5.7
Montana5.6
Idaho5.6
North Dakota5.2
Virginia4.7
Utah4.7
Maryland4.5
Kansas4.5
Georgia4.2
Nebraska3.6
New York3.6
Wisconsin3.1
New Mexico2.9
Rhode Island2.8
Washington2.5
California2.4
Connecticut2.0
North Carolina1.7
Arizona1.6
Massachusetts1.6
Florida1.5
Alabama1.0
Tennessee0.9
Maine0.7
Texas0.7
South Carolina0.6


Just by the by, Virginia Tech's Cody Hughes is the first national qualifier from Maine that I can find any information about. If someone knows of other Maine qualifiers, let us know!

Four-Time Qualifiers

30 total qualifiers were invited to their fourth NCAA tournament (but let us know if we missed anyone). They are, in reverse alphabetical order, because that's what the spreadsheet wats to give me, below:

NAMEYRWTSchoolFinish/Seed
Vincenzo JosephSR165Penn State2

JR165Penn State2

SO165Penn State1

FR165Penn State1
Travis PiotrowskiSR133Illinois7

JR125Illinois24

SO125Illinois16

FR125Illinois32
Taylor LujanSR184Northern Iowa1

JR174Northern Iowa12

SO174Northern Iowa12

FR174Northern Iowa16
Tanner HallSR285Arizona State4

JR285Arizona State16

SO285Arizona State3

FR285Arizona State12
Taleb RahmaniSR157Pittsburgh23

JR157Pittsburgh12

SO157Pittsburgh24

FR157Pittsburgh16
Seth GrossSR133Wisconsin2

JR133South Dakota State1

SO133South Dakota State2

FR141South Dakota State12
Russell RohlfingSR149CSU-Bakersfield24

JR149CSU-Bakersfield16

SO141CSU-Bakersfield32

FR141CSU-Bakersfield32
Pat LugoSR149Iowa1

JR149Iowa8

SO149Edinboro24

FR149Edinboro12
Nick PiccininniSR125Oklahoma State3

JR125Oklahoma State5

SO125Oklahoma State12

FR125Oklahoma State4
Mitch McKeeSR141Minnesota10

JR141Minnesota6

SO133Minnesota12

FR133Minnesota12
Max ThomsenSR149Northern Iowa13

JR149Northern Iowa12

SO149Northern Iowa12

FR149Northern Iowa5
Matt KolodzikSR149Princeton6

JR149Princeton5

SO149Princeton3

FR141Princeton7
Mark HallSR174Penn State1

JR174Penn State2

SO174Penn State2

FR174Penn State1
Luke PletcherSR141Ohio State1

JR133Ohio State4

SO133Ohio State4

FR141Ohio State16
Kyle ShoopSR141Lock Haven20

JR141Lock Haven7

SO141Lock Haven32

FR149Lock Haven33
Kollin MooreSR197Ohio State1

JR197Ohio State2

SO197Ohio State4

FR197Ohio State3
Josh ShieldsSR165Arizona State6

JR165Arizona State6

SO157Arizona State7

FR157Arizona State24
Joseph SmithSR174Oklahoma State12

JR165Oklahoma State16

SO157Oklahoma State4

FR157Oklahoma State7
Jared PrinceSR149Navy29

JR149Navy12

SO149Navy32

FR141Navy16
Jack MuellerSR125Virginia4

JR125Virginia2

SO133Virginia12

FR125Virginia6
Devin SkatzkaSR174Minnesota7

JR174Minnesota8

SO174Indiana32

FR174Indiana
32
David McFaddenSR165Virginia Tech7

JR174Virginia Tech5

SO165Virginia Tech5

FR165Virginia Tech6
Cole MartinSR149Wisconsin26

JR149Wisconsin24

SO149Wisconsin32

FR141Wisconsin32
Christian MoodySR125Oklahoma31

JR125Oklahoma32

SO125Oklahoma32

FR125Oklahoma32
Christian BrunnerSR197Purdue6

JR197Purdue12

SO197Purdue24

FR197Purdue24
Cam SykoraSR133North Dakota State11

JR133North Dakota State24

SO133North Dakota State32

FR133North Dakota State24
Bryce SteiertSR174Northern Iowa5

JR165Northern Iowa8

SO165Northern Iowa12

FR157Northern Iowa16
Brock ZacherlSR149Clarion11

JR141Clarion12

SO141Clarion32

FR141Clarion24
Brandon WomackSR174Cornell30

JR174Cornell16

SO174Cornell32

FR165Cornell8
Andrew FogartySR165North Dakota State14

JR165North Dakota State16

SO165North Dakota State24

FR165North Dakota State24


Three-time Qualifiers

29 wrestlers qualified for their third NCAAs in three attempts by earning bids to the 2020 tournament. They will all have a chance to join the four-timers club next year. Worth noting that there are others who have qualified for three NCAAs and still have a year of eligibility that did not wrestle this postseason.

NAMESCHOOL
Alex MarinelliIowa
Anthony ValenciaArizona State
Austin DeSantoIowa
Chad RedNebraska
Dakota Geer

Oklahoma State

Daniel BullardNC State
DJ FehlmanLock Haven
Drew Hughes

Michigan State

Dylan DuncanIllinois
Eric SchultzNebraska
Evan WickWisconsin
Gage CurryAmerican
Greg BulsakClarion
Hayden HidlayNC State
Jarrett DegenIowa State
Jordan WoodLehigh
Josh HeilCampbell
Matt Stencel

Central Michigan

Michael KemererIowa
Montorie BridgesWyoming
Nathan TraxlerStanford
Nick LeePenn State
Patrick BruckiPrinceton
Ryan DeakinNorthwestern
Sebastian RiveraNorthwestern
Spencer LeeIowa
Tariq WilsonNC State
Taylor VenzNebraska
Thomas BullardNC State


Most Returning Points per School

Note: this does not take into account wrestlers that scored points in previous tournaments and have eligibility remaining.

RANKSCHOOLPOINTS
1Iowa102.5
2Northwestern47
3Penn State40
4Iowa State38
5Nebraska34
6NC State33.5
7Princeton32
8Oklahoma State30
9Stanford29
10Minnesota27
11Ohio State26.5
12Michigan21.5
13Central Michigan21
14Purdue20.5
14North Carolina20.5
16Virginia Tech18
17Lehigh17.5
18Pittsburgh17
19West Virginia16
20Oklahoma15.5
21Wisconsin14.5
22Missouri14
23Cornell12.5
23Binghamton12.5
25Arizona State11.5
26Michigan State9.5
27Virginia7.5
28Wyoming7
29Utah Valley6
30Campbell5.5
31Northern Colorado4.5
32Rutgers4
32Navy4
32Illinois4
35American3.5
36Northern Iowa3
36Army3
38South Dakota State2.5
38Penn2.5
38Harvard2.5
41Oregon State2
41North Dakota State2
41Clarion2
44Rider1.5
44Old Dominion1.5
44Lock Haven1.5
44Bucknell1.5
48Northern Illinois1
48Indiana1
48Chattanooga1
51SIU-Edwardsville0.5
51Ohio0.5
51Kent State0.5
51Fresno State0.5
51Edinboro0.5
51Columbia0.5
51Buffalo0.5
51Appalachian State0.5


Looks like Iowa is well-positioned for another run at a championship in 2021.

And finally, let's look at qualifiers by class, by typing those words out again, only this time in really big letters.

Qualifiers by Class

Class

NQs

SR95
JR91
SO84
FR60


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