2020 NCAA Wrestling Championships

2020 NCAA Qualifiers Breakdown & Heatmaps

2020 NCAA Qualifiers Breakdown & Heatmaps

A data-driven deep dive of the 2020 NCAA National Wrestling Championship qualifiers

Mar 11, 2020 by Andrew Spey
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The NCAA announced the final at-large bids, completing the set of 330 wrestlers that will be in Minneapolis for the 2020 NCAA Championships. We've already broken down the number of qualifiers each school earned; now we're breaking down the data even further, no matter if or when this tournament takes place. 

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The NCAA announced the final at-large bids, completing the set of 330 wrestlers that will be in Minneapolis for the 2020 NCAA Championships. We've already broken down the number of qualifiers each school earned; now we're breaking down the data even further, no matter if or when this tournament takes place. 

Special thanks to Earl Smith at the Open Mat for compiling the hometowns for each qualifier. Thanks to the Earl's hard work, we can map the hometowns of all the 2020 qualifiers, which you can see below. 


That's actually not quite everyone. We can't forget about our European qualifiers: Jere Heino of Campbell by way of Finland, and Yaraslau Slavikouski of Harvard by way of Belarus. 


The numbers broken down by state (and a foreign country) are as follows.

STATEQUALIFIERS
Pennsylvania48
Ohio31
Illinois28
New Jersey23
California19
New York17
Michigan17
Minnesota16
Iowa13
Indiana13
Virginia10
Georgia9
Colorado9
Missouri8
Oklahoma7
Florida6
Texas5
North Carolina5
Maryland5
Utah4
Oregon4
Wisconsin3
Idaho3
Arizona3
West Virginia2
Washington2
North Dakota2
Montana2
Massachusetts2
Kansas2
Wyoming1
Tennessee1
South Dakota1
South Carolina1
Rhode Island1
New Mexico1
Nebraska1
Maine1
Finland1
Connecticut1
Belarus1
Alabama1


Assigning projected tournament points based on the latest NCAA rankings, we can create the wonderful visual aid that we all know and love, the heatmap.


Now that's what I call an excellent display of the relative geographic strength of wrestling in the United States of America! We've also produced a table of projected NCAA points by state.

STATE

PROJECTED POINTS

Pennsylvania254
Ohio152
Illinois139
New Jersey104.5
Minnesota95.5
Indiana91.5
Michigan66
New York62
California48.5
Virginia41.5
Iowa41.5
Georgia35
Colorado34
Florida31
Arizona29.5
West Virginia27
Oklahoma24.5
Missouri23.5
Texas20.5
Oregon15
Maryland14.5
Idaho14
Massachusetts12.5
North Carolina12
Utah7.5
Belarus6.5
Wisconsin4
Washington4
Montana4
Kansas3.5
North Dakota3
New Mexico3
Connecticut3
Tennessee2.5
South Dakota2.5
Finland1.5
Wyoming1
South Carolina1
Rhode Island1
Nebraska1
Maine1
Alabama1

 

Now let's create a heatmap using the metropolitan areas according to the US Census Bureau. 


Another masterpiece! New York City and Chicago are essentially tied for the most qualifiers in their respective metropolitan areas (both in the mid 20s depending on where you draw your boundaries). However, Pittsburgh would have the most qualifiers if adjusted per capita. 

Now how about a heatmap of U.S. counties based on projected NCAA points?


Perhaps that is too granular. Oh well, they aren't all going to be gems. 

Before we call it a day, let's check out qualifiers and projected points by conference. 

Qualifiers by conference:

CONFERENCEQUALIFIERS
Big Ten92
Big 1260
EIWA56
MAC50
ACC38
SoCon17
Pac-1217



Projected points by conference:

CONFERENCEQUALIFIERS
Big Ten642
Big 12222.5
EIWA192
ACC166.5
MAC115
Pac 1267
SoCon35



And finally, because I don't think it's worthy of its own article but I already did the work, here are all the wrestlers who were ranked in the last coaches' poll (which was released before the conference tournaments) but did not earn bids to the NCAA tournament. 

WTNAMERANKSCHOOLCONF
125Daniel Vega23South Dakota St.Big 12
125Logan Treaster26NavyEIWA
125Eric Barnett27WisconsinBig Ten
125Sean Carter28Appalachian St.SoCon
125Bryce West33Northern Ill.MAC
133Jordan Decatur31Ohio St.Big Ten
133Darren Miller33BucknellEIWA
141Peter Lipari30RiderMAC
149Requir van der Merwe29StanfordPac 12
149Jaron Jensen30WyomingBig 12
149Gerard Angelo32RutgersBig Ten
149AJ Leitten33NC StateACC
157Ryan Thomas31MinnesotaBig Ten
157Elijah Cleary33Ohio St.Big Ten
165Randy Meneweather II26Air ForceBig 12
165Nick Kiussis30West VirginiaBig 12
165Brett Donner32RutgersBig Ten
165Dazjon Casto33The CitadelSoCon
174Sage Heller33HofstraEIWA
184Colt Doyle32Oregon St.Pac 12
184George Walton33RiderMAC
197Tanner Orndorff21Utah ValleyBig 12
197Jacob Koser28NavyEIWA
197Joel Shapiro30Iowa St.Big 12
197Jaron Smith33MarylandBig Ten
285Seth Nevills16Penn St.Big Ten
285Colton McKiernan29SIUEMAC


That's all for now. Brackets will be out soon, then, even more analysis!