2018-2019 Prospect Rankings
Prospect Rankings By Weight
Prospect rankings are back! Here we handicap the talent and rank them based on what we believe will be their future college weights.
Over the next couple weeks, we'll roll out Prospect Rankings at each of the ten college weights.
A little about these rankings:
The Prospect Rankings are markedly different from the weight class rankings (which are all grades with wrestlers at their current weights and based entirely on results) and the Big Board rankings (which are grade specific and opinion-based).
Prospect Rankings take wrestlers from all grades and project them to their college weights. We then rank them based on what we think (opinion/assessment) their potential is.
A good measure to understand what I'm assessing, is to find a valuation to a senior, and then to take all the other wrestlers and project what level they will be at when they are a senior.
It's certainly an inexact science - one that is ever evolving and full of factors (none more obvious than the difficult in projecting physical growth). But Prospect Rankings just might be the most important one to recruiters, who have to not only target each weight, but have to deliberate on signing that weight this year, or waiting a year or two on someone who might turn out to be better.
The Turnover at 285:
- Seven of the previous Top 20 graduated
- Nine of the Top 20 remained ranked at the same weight
- None of the current Top 20 were ranked at other weights
- Eleven of the current Top 20 are new to the Prospect Rankings
At The Top:
Kerkvliet or Schultz? Schultz or Kerkvliet?
It's pretty much a dead heat, with most pundits looking at Kerkvliet's frame and room to grow to go along with his athleticism as reasons for a higher ceiling. Pick your poison. I wouldn't disagree with you either way.
They are clearly the top two guys and come in a mini-era of a talented prep HWT surge that recently included Gable Steveson, Mason Parris, and Anthony Cassioppi who just graduated.
I have Hutmacher at #3 but there is a real threat that he ends up playing football in college. Birchmeier, the Beast of the East Champ is highly undervalued in my opinion. PA State Champ Catka, who was injured in Fargo, round out the Top 5, although you could include Wolfgram and Luffman in that tier.
As you can see, I'm very high on incoming freshmen Franklin and Pettigrew. They met in Fargo with Pettigrew winning in FS. I like Franklin a touch better in Folk, and overall because he focuses on wrestling whereas Pettigrew has football aspirations.
Overall, the turnover at HWT was less than most other weights. While turnover in general is expected to be high in the first update after graduation, nine returning ranked guys is a high water mark for any weight. I think that can be attributed to 1) more guys separated from the pack at HWT, and 2) more weight 'certainty'. I.E. - you know they are going to be HWT whereas projections often change more in, say, the 149/157 range.
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