Friday night is the dual of the year, the one we’ve been waiting for since last March. There’s no question that the two best teams in the country are Iowa and Penn State, and they’ll finally be meeting in a dual.

If you look at our current team tournament rankings, Iowa is in first with a projected 136.5 points and Penn State in second with 73.5 points. Those are based off the individual rankings, so let’s first take a look at those based off the projected lineups for this match.

Iowa/PSU Probable Starters

125: #1 Spencer Lee (Iowa) vs Brandon Meredith (Penn State)

133: #2 Austin DeSanto (Iowa) vs #4 Roman Bravo-Young (Penn State)

141: Carter Happel (Iowa) vs #2 Nick Lee (Penn State)

149: #3 Pat Lugo (Iowa) vs Jarod Verkleeren/Luke Gardner (Penn State)

157: #4 Kaleb Young (Iowa) vs Bo Pipher/Brady Berge (Penn State)

165: #2 Alex Marinelli (Iowa) vs #1 Vincenzo Joseph (Penn State)

174: #3 Michael Kemerer (Iowa) vs #1 Mark Hall (Penn State)

184: #8 Abe Assad (Iowa) vs #10 Aaron Brooks (Penn State)

197: #4 Jacob Warner (Iowa) vs #15 Shakur Rasheed (Penn State)

285: #3 Tony Cassioppi (Iowa) vs #16 Seth Nevills (Penn State)

I started the year thinking the title was the Nittany Lions’ to lose, and then Iowa’s wrestlers kept winning matches and climbing in the rankings. Not only that, but Penn State lost defending national champ Anthony Cassar for the year, they lost past NCAA third Kyle Conel for the season, and it is still unclear if Brady Berge comes back.

So my viewpoint has shifted that Iowa is now a favorite here in this dual, at Big Tens, and ultimately (and most importantly) at the national tournament in Minneapolis. My friend David Bray is one of the sharpest minds in wrestling, but he’s wrong about Penn State’s chances here. Not only will the Hawkeyes be victorious in front of a soldout Carver-Hawkeye crowd, they’ll win by double digits.

Let’s get into how.

125 Pounds

Spencer has been the king of tech falls this season, but there’s no question he’ll be gunning for a pin to start this dual. And considering he’s wrestling Brandon Meredith, who has grabbed hold of the starting spot for PSU but is not necessarily a guy who can wrangle Spencer Lee, a fall seems imminent.

133 Pounds

Roman Bravo-Young is a major part of the next generation for Penn State and will be huge if they can continue their reign of dominance atop college wrestling. But Austin DeSanto beat RBY twice last year, and I don’t think I’m alone in saying DeSanto, through 13 matches, is wrestling the best we’ve ever seen him wrestle in college. That’s a 9-0 start for the Hawkeyes.

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141 Pounds

Nick Lee has been a buzzsaw this year, and with #3 Max Murin out, the Black & Gold holding it to a decision seems out of the question. Lee will try to push for a tech, but a veteran Carter Happel does his job and holds it to a major.

149 Pounds

Pat Lugo is 0-2 against Penn State in his college career, but one of those losses was to Zain Retherford when Lugo was a true freshman. PSU listed two options, either Jarod Verkleeren or Luke Gardner, both of whom Lugo will be favored over. If this was in Rec Hall, an upset at 149 or another weight is possible, but this is CHA. Decision Iowa, 12-4.

157 Pounds

Even though Brady Berge is listed as a possibility along with Bo Pipher, I don’t see any way they throw Berge out there for just his second match of the year. At this point, the wrestling community is just hoping Berge is healthy for the postseason. So you’ve got All-American Kaleb Young against 8-9 Bo Pipher. Up to 15-4 in favor of Iowa.

165 Pounds

No doubt this is a swing match between #1 Vincenzo Joseph and #2 Alex Marinelli. But if you’re talking about tossups, of which there are maybe four or five, logic would have it Penn State wins a couple and Iowa wins a couple. The Bull is 2-0 against Cenzo, it’s in Carver-Hawkeye, this has a wild decision for Marinelli written all over it. We’re up to 18-4 Hawkeyes, and the Nittany Lions are on the ropes.

174 Pounds

With all due respect to Michael Kemerer, Mark Hall is one of the best of this era. Kemdawg will try to put the team on his back and do everything in his power to keep Hall backpedaling and reeling. But if a man named Zahid Valencia didn’t exist it’s pretty likely Marky joins the hollowed group of four-time champions. He already paid his Carver tax and keeps Penn State’s hopes alive at 18-7.

184 Pounds

It feels strange to call this a tossup when you think about the trajectory of these guys' careers. In 2017, Abe Assad didn't place at Illinois states while Brooks won a Cadet world title. Then in 2018 Assad got his state title, won a Cadet world bronze and then a Super 32 title as Brooks made the Junior world finals. Brooks was rightfully the #2 prospect on the 2018 Big Board as compared to 29th on the 2019 Big Board for Assad, though that was finalized before he took third in Vegas at the Junior Open and beat Dustin Plott for a Fargo title. Assad is a slight favorite based on rankings, and I think he wins based on how the two are wrestling. If he does, it seals the dual at 21-7, but in the very reasonable and possibly likely scenario Brooks overcomes the Carver crowd it's 18-10.

197 Pounds

Shakur Rasheed and Jacob Warner have never wrestled. Warner didn't wrestle against Ohio State, and Rasheed has not appeared to be 100 percent since he came up. This is probably the most clearly defined tossup of the dual, but if they start at 125 Rasheed will have to win this to give PSU an opportunity to win, and probably have to get bonus. Warner is higher-ranked, he's at home, and is theoretically facing a less-than-full-strength Shakur, making it 21-10 (or at worst 18-13) and sealing the dual.

285 Pounds

Two of the weights where the Hawkeyes are most heavily favored are the bookends of the dual: 125 and heavyweight. Cassioppi teched Nevills at the US Open, and although that was freestyle, there's nothing to suggest he won't be able to get to those same attacks again. Additionally, Cassioppi is tough on top and has already beaten two All-Americans this year. Nevills was also a blue-chip coming out of high school, but he's a decided underdog here and it would be a notable upset if he takes out Big Tony here. That makes it 24-10 Iowa, but we'll have to wait till Friday night to see how things shake out.

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