2019 US Open Wrestling Championships

How Valuable Is It Winning The U.S. Open And Earning The Bye To Final X?

How Valuable Is It Winning The U.S. Open And Earning The Bye To Final X?

Examining how likely it is to make a world team after earning a bye to Final X by winning the U.S. Open in men's freestyle.

Apr 7, 2019 by Wrestling Nomad
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The U.S. Open is one of the most anticipated events on the wrestling calendar each year, and part of that is because of just how important it can be to win this tournament.

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The U.S. Open is one of the most anticipated events on the wrestling calendar each year, and part of that is because of just how important it can be to win this tournament.

Back in 2017, I ran some numbers on the value of earning a bye to the World Team Trials finals in men's freestyle. The article ran before the U.S. Open that year, when there were six weights where the winner would get a bye to the finals of the WTT that June.

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A change was introduced in 2018 called Final X, but the premise was still the same. Instead of sitting in the Trials finals, Open winners and returning world medalists were granted a bye to one of the three Final X locations. This year, Final X is back but there are only two legs: Rutgers on June 8 and Lincoln on June 15.

The exact number of Final X byes is not yet known, with Joe Colon at 61kg and Kyle Dake at 79kg being the primary questions since they won their world medals at non-Olympic weights. But we can still look at the past two years worth of data, and update the totals as they stand since 2009.

Final X: Rutgers | Final X: Lincoln

First, a quick refresher on how the numbers looked entering the 2017 Open. From 2009-16, a total of 48 wrestlers earned byes to that year's Trials finals, with 43 of them coming via the U.S. Open. Those wrestlers went 35-13 in the best-of-three series to determine the world or Olympic teamer, with the Open winners going 30-13 overall.

Since then, there have 18 best-of-three series to determine world team spots: eight at the 2017 World Team Trials and 10 spread across three different Final X locations last year. The major difference between 2017 and 2018 is that the winner of the WTT challenge tournament in 2017 had to wrestle the person with the bye on the same day that they went through the challenge tournament. But in 2018, Final X meant that each wrestler was theoretically "fresh" as the challenge tournament was several weeks earlier.

Yet the results were relatively consistent with the previous eight years of data. Wrestlers who earned their bye via the Open went 6-4 at the Trials and Final X, with two asterisks. In 2017, Jordan Oliver won the Open but was barred from competing in the Trials, so Frank Molinaro, who was second to Oliver at that year's Open, was given the bye instead; he lost to Zain Retherford in three matches in Lincoln. In 2018, Joe Colon won the Open but lost in three matches to Nahshon Garrett at Final X: Lehigh. However, Garrett suffered an injury before the world championships and Colon was sent in his place, where he won a bronze medal.

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Over that same time period, wrestlers who won medals went 8-0 in their best-of-three series, with the winners going 16-1 overall across all the matches. The only wrestler without a bye to take a match was David Taylor in the first bout of the 2017 Trials finals against J'den Cox, and Taylor would of course go on to win the world title in 2018 and now has a bye of his own to Final X: Rutgers this year.

Interestingly, of the four losses from wrestlers who earned byes by winning the Open (which includes Molinaro for the sake of consistency), all of them were in the first three weight classes. Those went as follows:

  • 57kg: Thomas Gilman 2-0 Tony Ramos (2017)
  • 65kg: Zain Retherford 2-1 Frank Molinaro (2017)
  • 61kg: Nahshon Garrett 2-1 Joe Colon (2018)
  • 65kg: Logan Stieber 2-0 Joey McKenna (2018)

So, to update the overall data since 2009, wrestlers who won world medals and stay at the same weight the next year are 13-0 in series to make the world team. Those numbers bode well for the likes of Jordan Burroughs, Taylor, Cox, Kyle Snyder, and Nick Gwiazdowski. In that same time frame, byes won at the Open resulted in a 36-17 record when it came time to make the world team.

Looking at wrestlers who won the Trials (or Final X) despite not having the bye, five have now wrestled for a medal, which now includes Thomas Gilman's silver in Paris, upping the total to three medals won by those without the bye. 

With at least three, and potentially as many as five, byes available to Final X coming for the U.S. Open winners at the end of this month, expect those weights to be at full capacity. That means 57kg, 65kg, and 70kg should see jam packed brackets eager to get to Final X without having to go wrestle in the WTT challenge tournament in Raleigh.

If you're betting on Final X, make sure you keep this stat handy. Since 2009, wrestlers with byes are 49-17 in their series to make the world team, or a 74.2% rate. So, who's going to be the one to get the bye and lose? We'll just have to wait till after the Open to find out.