For the eighth time in nine years, Penn State will be the last team on the raised mat on Saturday night, hoisting the NCAA championship trophy. The team race is all but over before it starts, however, just like there are eight All-Americans, four programs go home with team trophies (or five if there's a tie like last year).

Based solely on the seeds and without factoring in bonus, Ohio State and Oklahoma State are neck-and-neck for second place. Joe Smith is a pretty big X-factor for the Cowboys, as I doubt there are many in the wrestling community who think he will score zero team points from his 33rd seed. But the Buckeyes also have major bonus point threats in Myles Martin and Micah Jordan, not to mention Joey McKenna and Kollin Moore.

Iowa is right behind Michigan for the final team trophy, but they're set up very well to overachieve. They have a defending champ as the 3 seed at 125 and a 7 seed at 133 whose quarterfinal opponent may be severely injured. Then there is Pat Lugo, who has already beaten Kaden Gfeller and gets him in the second round, as well as Sam Stoll, who has a win over Jordan Wood and sees him first round.

Meanwhile, Michigan has a five seed that just finished seventh at his conference tournament, and the aforementioned severely injured potential QF opponent of Austin DeSanto. They'll be relying on Kanen Storr and Alec Pantaleo to exceed their seeds, as well as Myles Amine and Logan Massa picking up bonus wins throughout the tournament.

A little bit of info on team scoring. Each win in the championship on Thursday is worth one advancement point, plus bonus. A major is worth another point, a tech is worth 1.5 points, and a pinfall will net you two points. On Friday, a quarterfinal and semifinal win are worth seven each, plus bonus. On the backside, a win is worth a half point. Each win in the finals is worth four points.

We'll be tracking the team trophy race throughout the tournament, and here's what a sample of that matrix looks like heading into the weekend. A perfect tournament means pinning your way through, which amounts to 30 points. Subtract 30 for every weight you didn't qualify, and voila!

Team Scores vs Max Possible Points

Now let's identify the most important wrestler for some teams in their attempt to claim a team trophy and finish as high as possible.

Oklahoma State: Kaden Gfeller, 149

The redshirt freshman scraped his knees a bit down the stretch, losing to Brock Mauller and Pat Lugo in the final two duals of the year but rebounding to win Big 12s. The scuttlebutt is that he's been working through some injuries, but he's wrestling, so it doesn't matter much at this point. He'll get a chance to avenge the Lugo loss on Thursday night, and beat the three seed Mitch Finesilver in the Southern Scuffle finals. By the time Gfeller sees Finesilver though, he'll likely have already placed.

Ohio State: Chase Singletary, 285

For a 16 seed, Singletary has a pretty phenomenal draw. He beat David Jensen at Big Tens and will get him in the second round. A loss to Derek White puts him against Joey Goodhart, a winnable match. Then he could hit Matt Stencel, who he pinned at CKLV. That could set up a potentially fascinating matchup with Thomas Haines, who was originally supposed to be a Buckeye. Haines committed to OSU in August of 2013, and announced he was transferring in January of 2016. A win there pits him against Mason Parris, who he's split with this year! Some stuff needs to happen, but him being in the consi semis is less outrageous than just about any other 16 seed I've ever seen.

Michigan: Stevan Micic, 133

Perhaps a peculiar choice given that Micic is the two seed, but he also represented the Wolverines' best shot at a national champ since Kellen Russel. That is, until he forfeited out of Big Tens and had a huge brace on his knee. If Micic fails to place, or even worse goes 0-2 because his knee isn't right, it puts a huge dent in Michigan's shot at their second straight team trophy.

Iowa: Austin DeSanto, 133

DeSanto and Micic are clearly destined to be intertwined forever. The major on the backside at CKLV is what slingshotted DeSanto into the Top-5 of last December's rankings, and then of course the infamous kimura incident when Micic majored DeSanto at NCAAs. Now their pending quarterfinal on Friday morning (I don't really think Micic will go 0-2, but knee injuries can be tricky in this sport) looms large as their teams will be fighting tooth and nail for the final trophy spot. 

While we've spent the better of this season wondering if Spencer Lee can be the same destructive force that scored 27 points (from the same 3 seed position) in Cleveland, it is DeSanto who is most fascinating. He walked into Big Tens ranked third, but then losses to Nick Suriano and Ethan Lizak dropped him all the way to the seven seed. His Big Ten schedule prepared him well for his path: Roman Bravo-Young in the second round, Micic in the quarters, and Suriano in the semis. He's already beaten RBY and Suriano, so a finals run is not out of the question, but so is finishing below his seed and not placing, just like he did last year from the seven spot.