2019 NCAA Championships

NCAA Tournament Team Scoring Based On Seeds

NCAA Tournament Team Scoring Based On Seeds

We run the 2019 NCAA Wrestling Championship seeds through a scoring rubric to see what the team race would look like if chalk prevailed.

Mar 18, 2019 by Andrew Spey
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How would the NCAA Tournament team race go if every match went according to seed? That's a good question, and luckily for us, we can answer it, as the NCAA seeding committee has, for the first time in tournament history, seeded all 33 entries per weight class. 

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How would the NCAA Tournament team race go if every match went according to seed? That's a good question, and luckily for us, we can answer it, as the NCAA seeding committee has, for the first time in tournament history, seeded all 33 entries per weight class. 

Applying the same method we use to calculate the FloWrestling Team Tournament Top 20, we can reveal what the team scores would be if every bracket went 100% chalk and there were no bonus points or penalty deductions. Those scores are in the table below.

RANKTEAMPOINTS
1Penn State125.5
2Oklahoma State84
3Ohio State82.5
4Michigan66
5Iowa63.5
6Missouri49
7Minnesota42.5
8Cornell41.5
9Rutgers35.5
9Northwestern35.5
9Lehigh35.5
12Virginia Tech33
13Northern Iowa31
13Arizona State31
15Nebraska30.5
16Princeton29
17NC State27
18Illinois25
19Wisconsin23.5
20Pittsburgh22
21Oregon State21.5
22Iowa State20
23Virginia16.5
24Duke16
25Lock Haven15.5
26North Carolina12.5
27Old Dominion9
28Stanford7.5
29Utah Valley6.5
29Purdue6.5
31Wyoming6
32Oklahoma4.5
32North Dakota State4.5
34Fresno State4
34Central Michigan4
36Navy3.5
36Army3.5
38Ohio3
38Drexel3
38Campbell3
41West Virginia2.5
41Michigan State2.5
43Penn2
43Maryland2
43Indiana2
43Binghamton2
47Rider1.5
47Northern Illinois1.5
47George Mason1.5
47Bucknell1.5
47Appalachian State1.5
52Buffalo1
52American1
54VMI0.5
54The Citadel0.5
54South Dakota State0.5
54Kent State0.5
54Gardner-Webb0.5
54CSU Bakersfield0.5
54Cal Poly0.5
54Brown0.5
62SIU Edwardsville0
62Northern Colorado0
62Franklin & Marshall0
62Edinboro0
62Columbia0
62Clarion0
62Chattanooga0
62Bloomsburg0
62Air Force0


With seven wrestlers seeded in the top three, it's no surprise to see Penn State up top. They are the favored to run away with their fourth straight team title, and head coach Cael Sanderson's eighth overall, a double four-peat. 

Oklahoma State, despite netting zero points in our projection from #33 seed Joe Smith at 165 and #26 seed Dakota Geer at 184, is favored to battle it out with Ohio State for the runner-up trophy. The final fourth-place team trophy should come down to either Michigan or Iowa. 

We can also see how many All-Americans each team would have if everyone wrestled to seed. That table is below.

TEAM1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8thTOTAL
Penn State331




7
Oklahoma State211


2
6
Michigan
1
211
16
Ohio State13

1


5
Iowa1
1
111
5
Missouri
1
11

14
Minnesota

1

21
4
Lehigh


11

24
Virginia Tech

1

1
13
Princeton


11
1
3
Northern Iowa


1
1
13
Cornell1


1

13
Wisconsin


1

1
2
Virginia



1
1
2
Rutgers1
1




2
Pittsburgh


1


12
Oregon State


1
1

2
Northwestern1
1




2
Nebraska
1



1
2
NC State



1
1
2
Iowa State




1
12
Illinois


1
1

2
Arizona State

2




2
Stanford






11
Old Dominion





1
1
North Carolina




1

1
Lock Haven



1


1
Duke

1




1


But, as explained, that's if literally everything goes according to chalk and there are no bonus points or penalty deductions, and the chances of that happening are precisely nil. 

So what will happen in Pittsburgh? That's what we all get to find out together over the next week. How delightful for us all.