By The Numbers: Latest Coaches' Poll & RPI Ratings

By The Numbers: Latest Coaches' Poll & RPI Ratings

We breakdown the third coaches' poll and latest RPI ratings recently published by the NCAA.

Mar 1, 2019 by Andrew Spey
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The NCAA recently released the qualifying allocations per conference for the 2019 NCAA Tournament, as well as the latest coaches' poll and RPI ratings used to determine those allocations. You can read more about those auto bids here. 

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The NCAA recently released the qualifying allocations per conference for the 2019 NCAA Tournament, as well as the latest coaches' poll and RPI ratings used to determine those allocations. You can read more about those auto bids here

Below, we breakdown the coaches' poll and RPI rating separately, assigning hypothetical NCAA placement and advancement points (but ignoring potential bonus points) to the top 24 wrestlers in each ranking. This is the same method we use to determine the team tournament rankings in our NCAA top 20 rankings

Team Points According to the Coaches' Poll

RANKSCHOOLCOACHES PTS
1Penn State129
2Ohio State81.5
3Oklahoma State70.5
4Michigan70
5Iowa67
6Nebraska48.5
7Minnesota48
8Missouri46.5
9Northwestern40
10Cornell38
11NC State35
12Rutgers34
12Lehigh34
14Virginia Tech32.5
15Wisconsin32
16Arizona State29.5
17Princeton29
18Illinois21.5
19UNI19.5
20Iowa State19
21Virginia18
22Pittsburgh16
23Duke14.5
24Oregon State14
25North Carolina13.5
26Lock Haven12.5
27Utah Valley8
28Wyoming7
29Purdue6.5
29Army6.5
31Michigan State6
32Maryland5.5
33Old Dominion4
33ND State4
33Campbell4
36Stanford3.5
37Ohio3
37Fresno State3
37Central Michigan3
37Buffalo3
41Oklahoma2.5
41Navy2.5
41Drexel2.5
44West Virginia2
44Bucknell2
44Brown2
44Binghamton2
48Rider1.5
48Penn1.5
48Northern Illinois1.5
48George Mason1.5
48Clarion1.5
53Indiana1
53CSU-Bakersfield1
55VMI0.5
55The Citadel0.5
55SD State0.5
55N. Colorado0.5
55Kent State0.5
55Edinboro0.5
55Cal Poly0.5
55App State0.5
55American0.5
64SIUE0
64Hofstra0
64Gardner‐Webb0
64Columbia0
64Chattanooga0
64Bloomsburg0
64Air Force0


Not a surprise to see Penn State way out in front. The Nittany Lions have a similar size lead in the FloWrestling team rankings. Four other teams, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Michigan and Iowa, are expected to be in the hunt for the three other team trophies, at least according to the coaches.

The RPI Ratings provide for a few more unexpected results. However, it's important to remember the RPI is a relatively simple metric that only factors in three things: a wrestler's winning percentage, the winning percentage of a wrestler's opponents and the winning percentage of the opponents of a wrestler's opponents.

Team Points According to the RPI

RANKSCHOOLRPI PTS
1Ohio State106.5
2Penn State100
3Iowa61
4Oklahoma State57
5Virginia Tech48.5
5Missouri48.5
7UNI47.5
8Princeton45.5
9Nebraska43.5
10Northwestern41.5
11Michigan40
12Lehigh36.5
13Cornell35
14Minnesota34
15Wisconsin31.5
16Iowa State27.5
17Arizona State26
18Pittsburgh23.5
19North Carolina22.5
20Duke19
21Purdue15.5
22Lock Haven14
23Wyoming13
23Oregon State13
23Central Michigan13
26Rutgers12.5
26Illinois12.5
28Army10.5
29Navy9.5
30Old Dominion9
31Virginia8
31Utah Valley8
31Stanford8
31NC State8
35Michigan State6.5
35Binghamton6.5
37Fresno State5
38Oklahoma4.5
39ND State4
40Campbell3
41West Virginia2.5
41Ohio2.5
41Drexel2.5
41CSU-Bakersfield2.5
41Buffalo2.5
41Bucknell2.5
47Penn2
47Kent State2
47Brown2
50Rider1.5
50Edinboro1.5
50American1.5
53Northern Illinois0.5
53N. Colorado0.5
53Indiana0.5
53Harvard0.5
53George Mason0.5
53Gardner‐Webb0.5
53Columbia0.5
53Clarion0.5
53Chattanooga0.5
53Bloomsburg0.5
53App State0.5
64VMI0
64SIUE0
64SD State0
64Maryland0
64Cal Poly0
64Air Force0


No disrespect to the Buckeyes, but they are still very much underdogs to win an NCAA team title in Pittsburgh, despite what the RPI ratings might have you believe. 

Since the Coaches' Poll appears more accurate, or at least lines up better with conventional wisdom, let's revisit those numbers, but breakdown the hypothetical NCAA Tournament team points by conference as well as weight class. That table is below.

NCAA Team Points By Conference According to the Coaches' Poll


You expect to see the Big Ten with the most team points, although perhaps the magnitude of the conference's lead is surprising. Additionally, the Big Ten is expected to score more team points than any other conference at all 10 weight classes. 

That's pretty impressive dominance. However, these numbers don't quite tell the whole story. The Big Ten conference is also one of the largest conferences in Division 1, with 14 wrestling programs. By contrast, the ACC has only six members with wrestling teams. To account for this discrepancy, we can divide the expected NCAA team points by the number of programs in each conference get new, per school team points. That new table is below. 

NCAA Team Points Per School By Conference According to the Coaches' Poll


The ACC leapfrogs the Big 12 and establishes itself as the second most competitive conference. ACC schools are expected to score more team points on average in the 149- and 184-pound weight classes than Big Ten school. Furthermore, the ACC has distinguished itself by earning the most auto bids per school. Kudos to all the coaches and student-athletes involved in that achievement!