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2025 NCAA Wrestling Championship Preview & Predictions - 149 Pounds

2025 NCAA Wrestling Championship Preview & Predictions - 149 Pounds

A full preview, with predictions, for the 149-pound weight class at the 2025 NCAA Wrestling Championships.

Mar 15, 2025 by Jon Kozak
2025 NCAA Wrestling Championship Preview & Predictions - 149 Pounds

The 2025 NCAA Tournament is set to go down March 20-22 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The 149 pound bracket features the returning national champion Caleb Henson along with a host of challengers capable of winning the NCAA title this year. 149 pounds is one of the deepest weights in the country and will be incredibly exciting to watch unfold in Philadelphia. Check out the below article for a full preview with predictions for this outstanding weight.

NCAA Rankings

Championship Team Scores Based on Seeds

Individual weight class previews: 125 | 133 | 141 | 149 | 157 | 165 | 174 | 184 | 197 | 285

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2025 149-Pound NCAA Bracket

2025 Top Eight Seeds (Name, School, Season Record)

1. Caleb Henson, Virginia Tech, 18-0

2. Ridge Lovett, Nebraska, 20-2

3. Shayne Van Ness, Penn State, 20-2

4. Paniro Johnson, Iowa State, 25-4

5. Kyle Parco, Iowa, 20-3

6. Lachlan McNeil, North Carolina, 20-5

7. Kannon Webster, Illinois, 14-6

8. Jordan Williams, Little Rock, 24-4

2024 Place Winners

1. Caleb Henson, Virginia Tech

2. Austin Gomez, Michigan

3. Tyler Kasak, Penn State

4. Ty Watters, West Virginia

5. Kyle Parco, Arizona State

6. Ridge Lovett, Nebraska

7. Casey Swiderski, Iowa State

8. Quinn Kinner, Rider

Last 10 149-pound NCAA champions

2024: Caleb Henson, Virginia Tech

2023: Yianni Diakomihalis, Cornell

2022: Yianni Diakomihalis, Cornell

2021: Austin O’Connor, North Carolina

2020: Canceled

2019: Anthony Ashnault, Rutgers

2018: Zain Retherford, Penn State

2017: Zain Retherford, Penn State

2016: Zain Retherford, Penn State

2015: Drake Houdashelt, Missouri

2014: Jason Tsirtsis, Northwestern

The Favorites

  • #1/1 Caleb Henson, Virginia Tech
  • #2/2 Ridge Lovett, Nebraska
  • #3/3 Shayne Van Ness, Penn State

*Rank/Seed

149 is an incredibly deep weight class, but the three wrestlers above have slightly separated themselves from the pack. Caleb Henson is the returning national champion and is undefeated this year with an 18-0 record and 13 bonus point wins - 3 pins, 6 techs, and 4 majors. The highlight of Henson’s year was at the CKLV where he won the title with an overtime victory over Ridge Lovett. It is worth noting that Henson missed almost all of January with an apparent injury and has only wrestled 6 matches in the past 6 weeks. Despite the layoff, Henson is coming off an ACC title with an overtime win over two-time All-American Lachlan McNeil. If Henson is back to 100%, he’s fully capable of winning another national title this year.

Henson's win over Lovett at the CKLV:

Ridge Lovett is fresh off a Big Ten title and is the only wrestler in the field who has career victories over Caleb Henson and Shayne Van Ness. Despite losses to Parco and Henson this year, Lovett is having a phenomenal season with a 20-2 record and 14 bonus point wins - 5 pins, 5 techs, and 4 majors. Lovett is one of the best top wrestlers in the country and looks to be wrestling as good as he ever has. As a runner-up (2022) and 6th place finisher (2024), Lovett hasn’t been able to put together a full NCAA tournament yet but he’ll be looking to end his college career on top in Philadelphia. 

Lovett's win over Shayne Van Ness (8:36 in the below video):

Unlike Lovett and Henson, Shayne Van Ness isn’t riding the same kind of momentum coming into the NCAA Tournament. Van Ness suffered a surprising loss to Illinois’ Kannon Webster and had to battle back for third place at Big Ten’s. Despite that loss, Van Ness has some of the best offense in the country, and when he’s wrestling his best, he’s capable of putting up big points against any wrestler in this bracket. With an over 77% bonus point rate, Van Ness has the highest bonus percentage of any wrestler in the country at 149 pounds (5 pins, 5 techs, 8 majors). Van Ness also has a past victory over Caleb Henson but will likely need to avenge his loss Ridge Lovett if he hopes to make the finals.

Van Ness' win over Kyle Parco:

The Contenders

  • #4/5 Kyle Parco, Iowa
  • #5/8 Jordan Williams, Little Rock
  • #6/12 Ethan Stiles, Oregon State
  • #7/6 Lachlan McNeil, North Carolina
  • #8/7 Kannon Webster, Illinois
  • #9/13 Dylan D'Emilio, Ohio State
  • #10/4 Paniro Johnson, Iowa State
  • #11/10 Colin Realbuto, UNI

*Rank/Seed

The above group of eight wrestlers highlight the depth of the 149 pound field. The wrestlers in this tier are all legitimate All-American contenders but it’d be a surprise to see any win the title or even make a run to the finals. Four-time All-American Kyle Parco highlights this group and he does have a case to be considered in tier 1 considering he’s 3-1 in his career against Ridge Lovett. However, Parco has never defeated Van Ness or Henson and is coming off major decision losses to Ridge Lovett and Shayne Van Ness. Parco is still a solid pick to finish in the top 4 but he’ll need to pull off an upset or two to end his college career with a national title. 

Parco's win over Lovett: 

Jordan Williams, Ethan Stiles, and Kannon Webster are all slightly surprising additions to this group of contenders. To start the year, Ethan Stiles was unranked but went on an incredible run late in the season with wins over Jordan Williams, Jaden Abas, Chance Lamer, and Lachlan McNeil. Williams was ranked #22 at the beginning of February but had a great end to his season winning PAC 12s and recording significant wins over Gavin Drexler, Chance Lamer and Ethan Stiles.

Jordan Williams' win over Ethan Stiles in the Pac 12 Finals:

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Then there’s Kannon Webster who entered the year ranked #11 but fell to #18 after he lost to Sam Cartella. Like Williams and Stiles, Webster had a fantastic finish to his season highlighted by the Big Ten’s where he defeated Dylan D’Emilio and Shayne Van Ness on his way to a second place finish. If Webster, Stiles, and Williams all wrestle to potential, they’ll find the podium and could be dark horses to make a run to the semifinals or beyond.

Webster's win over Van Ness:

Lachlan McNeil and Dylan D’Emilio are both former All-Americans who haven’t quite been able to break into the top tier at 149 pounds. McNeil finished 4th (2023) and 6th (2024) at 141 pounds and has been solid all year at his new weight class. He has significant wins over Kannon Webster, Dylan D’Emilio, and Jaden Abas (X2) but has lost to Caleb Henson, Ethan Stiles, Kyle Parco, Ridge Lovett, and Ty Watters. Because of those results, McNeil should be firmly in the mix to reach the podium but it’d be a surprise to see him in the semis or finals.

Similarly, D’Emilio has been good all year but has lost every time he’s wrestled someone in the top 5. At the #13 seed, D’Emilio has a path to the quarters. He’ll wrestle #20 seed Koy Buesgens in round 1 and then #4 seed Paniro Johnson in round 2. D’Emilio hasn’t wrestled either in his college career, but he’ll be a big favorite against Buesgens, and D’Emilio matches up well against Johnson. Even if D’Emilio loses that match, he will be right in the mix to make a deep run in the consis.

Finally, Paniro Johnson and Colin Realbuto are two wrestlers who have never earned All-American honors but have consistently been in the top 10 throughout their college careers. Paniro Johnson started his year at 157 before dropping to 149 in January. Since the drop, Johnson has put together a 17-1 record with his only loss coming against the aforementioned Realbuto. Outside of that loss, Johnson recently won Big 12s by defeating Realbuto in the finals (5-4) and also has significant wins over Sammy Alvarez, Willie McDougald, Carter Young, Jesse Vasquez, and Teague Travis. Two years ago, Johnson showed just how dangerous he can be when he defeated both Austin Gomez and Shayne Van Ness. At the #4 seed, Johnson will likely have to go through Kyle Parco and Caleb Henson to make the finals. He’ll be an underdog in both of those matches but if he’s wrestling his best, he’s capable of defeating anyone in the country.

Hear from Paniro Johnson after his Big 12 title:

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At the #10 seed, Colin Realbuto will be a favorite against Carson DesRosier in round 1 but will have a tough matchup with Kannon Webster in round 2. Realbuto and Webster have never wrestled but prior to conference weekend, Realbuto would have been considered a favorite in that matchup. If Realbuto gets by Webster, he’ll wrestle Ridge Lovett in the quarter finals. Lovett and Realbuto wrestled in early January where Lovett came out on top of a wild 12-9 decision. Lovett will be the favorite to win again, but Realbuto will be in this match and it wouldn’t be too surprising to see him make the semis. 

Sleepers & Landmines

  • #14/11 Sammy Alvarez, Rider
  • #32/25 Malyke Hines, Lehigh

*Rank/Seed

As mentioned above, 149 is incredibly deep and there are several wrestlers that are seeded outside the top 10 that could make a run to the podium. No one should be surprised if wrestlers like Chance Lamer, Jaden Abas, Cross Wasilewski, Ty Whalen, or Koy Buesgens pull off upsets to finish in the top 8. However, Sammy Alvarez and Malyke Hines are two wrestlers that best fit the description of a “sleeper” or a “landmine”. 

Rider’s Sammy Alvarez has quietly put together a 20-5 record on his way to winning a MAC title and finishing the year on an 11 match winning streak. Outside of a tech fall loss to Ty Watters in his opening match of the season, Alvarez's largest margin of defeat was a 4-1 loss to Carter Young. His only other losses on the year were Paniro Johnson (2-1), Ridge Lovett (2-0), and Jaden Abas (4-2). Beyond the losses, Alvarez has solid wins over Ty Whalen, Mason Shrader, Finn Solomon, Kal Miller, Koy Buesgens, Ethan Fernandez, and Gabe Willochell. Alvarez will face a tough second round match against Lachlan McNeil but I expect that match to be competitive. Even if Alvarez loses, he has the potential to make a good run on the consolation rounds. 

Malyke Hines drew the #25 seed but shouldn’t be underestimated in Philly. Hines is a veteran and this will be his fifth time competing at the NCAA Tournament. Just two years ago, Hines finished one match shy of All-American honors and he’s in a great spot in the bracket to make a run to the quarters. Hines will wrestle Jordan Williams first, and though Williams is having a fantastic year, Hines matches up well against Williams. Both wrestlers are great on their feet and Hines is a strong top wrestler that could make things tough for Williams on the mat. If Hines does pull off the first round upset, he’ll likely wrestle #9 seed Cross Wasilewski. Hines and Wasilewski wrestled a month ago with Wasilewski winning in overtime, 10-7. Hines won’t be the favorite but if you’re looking for a low seed to make a run to the quarters, Hines might be the guy to pick in this bracket.

149 Pound Predictions

Going into conference weekend, Shayne Van Ness was my pick to win the NCAA Tournament. Van Ness is an incredible athlete and when his neutral offense is clicking, I don’t think anyone in the country can stop him. However, his loss to Webster at Big Ten’s gives me a little hesitation to stay with Van Ness. Still, if Van Ness wrestles his best in Philadelphia, I think he’ll come out on top of this incredible 149-pound bracket.

1. Shayne Van Ness, Penn State

2. Caleb Henson, Virginia Tech

3. Ridge Lovett, Nebraska

4. Kyle Parco, Iowa

5. Lachlan McNeil, North Carolina

6. Kannon Webster, Illinois

7. Colin Realbuto, UNI

8. Jordan Williams, Little Rock

Rd of 12: Dylan D`Emilio, Ohio State

Rd of 12: Sammy Alvarez, Rider

Rd of 12: Paniro Johnson, Iowa State

Rd of 12: Jaden Abas, Stanford