I would like to start off this article by saying that I hope Team USA goes 10 for 10 at Worlds and dominates the entire way and that USA Wrestling has become so good in the past handful of years that just making the team automatically makes you a medal threat at the World Championships. Look at how many medalists are sitting home this year. That being said, I’m trying to provide information to help fans set realistic expectations. At weights where I did not predict a gold medal, I’m not saying that wrestler isn’t capable, just looking at data including past results and international fields.

I’m also operating under the assumption that Russia and Belarus will not be in attendance. While there have been some mixed signals from the IOC and several months for things to change, I do not expect them to compete at the Senior World Championships at this time. And if they do, it obviously becomes much more difficult to win a medal.

57 kg: Zane Richards

Likelihood of medaling: 50/50

Top International Guys

Zelimkhan Abakarov, ALB

Rei Higuchi, JPN

Stevan Micic, SRB

Gulomjon Abdullaev, UZB

Ravi Kumar, IND

Aliabbas Rzazade, AZE

Suleyman Atli, TUR

If you would have asked me this question two months ago, I would have said no way Zane Richards medals at the World Championships. For one, I would have said there was no way he was going to make the World Team. A lot can change in two months, however. 

Now six years removed from his college career, all of the time and trust Richards has put into the Illinois coaching staff has paid off and he’s hot at the right time. If you beat Thomas Gilman, you are no doubt a threat to bring home a medal. However, I can’t get Richard’s complete body of work out of my head. Earlier this year in February Richards lost to who I expect to be both the Japanese and Indian backups at the Zagreb Ranking Series.

As an Olympic weight the year before the Olympics, 57 kg is going to be stacked with talent that would sometimes be up at 61 kg or not competing at all. It's a different ballgame when you aren't just game planning for one individual like at Final X but an entire field. Richards is going to have a fight in every match.

Prediction: 5th place

61 kg: Vito Arujau

Likelihood of medaling: pretty good

Top International Guys

Taiyrbek Zhumashbek Uulu, KGZ

Arsen Harutyunyan, ARM

Reza Atri, IRI

Narankhuu Narmandakh, MGL

Nobody is hotter in the US right now than Vito Arujua. An OW performance at NCAAs in March, a US Open title in April, and his first Senior World Team in June. Vito has shown flashes of excellence, but this year up at 133 lbs/61 kg, he appears to have finally found consistency. It’s something he touched on in his post Final X interview.

Watch Vito talk about finding consistency in 2023 below.

That being said, Vito’s wrestling style makes me nervous. The way Vito is wrestling, I’m putting him right up there with the best in the world at 61 kg in a two-match series, but he gave up 15 points in his two Final X matches. At the end of the day you can give up as many points as you want as long as you score more, but the shootout game is a dangerous game to play when you have to win every match to earn gold.

As hot as Vito has been domestically, Taiyrbek Zhumashbek Uulu has been just as hot internationally. The Kyrgyzstani wrestler has wins over Harutyunyan (world medalist), Markovych, Lomtadze (world champ), Nick Lee, Anthony Ashnault, and Matt Kolodzik to name a few.

Prediction: Silver

65 kg: Nick Lee

Likelihood of medaling: unlikely

Top International Guys

Takuto Otoguro, JPN

Rahman Amouzad, IRI

Tulga Tumur-Ochir, MGL

Haji Aliyev, AZE

Abdulmazhid Kudiev, TJK

Ismail Musukaev, HUN

Bajrang Punia, IND

Vazgen Tevanyan, ARM

Alejandro Valdes, CUB

I understand that Yianni Diakomihalis won a silver medal last year and that Nick Lee just beat Yianni two matches to none, but 65 kg is the toughest weight in the world and is going to be close to its peak form in a pre-Olympic year. Lee and the NLWC staff had weeks to gameplan for just Yianni, but it's a different ball game when you have to prepare for an entire field.

Look how easily Ismail Musukaev tech falled Nick Lee earlier this year at the Zagreb Ranking Series tournament. And remember that Musukaev has barely been able to win two bronze medals in his very long career.

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65 kg is just too deep and Nick Lee gives up too many points.

Prediction: 1-1

70 kg: Zain Retherford

Likelihood of medaling: likely

Top International Guys

Syrbaz Talgat, KAZ

Ernazar Akmatalie, KGZ

Ramazan Ramazanov, BUL

Amir Yazdani, IRI

Zain Retherford proved himself by bringing home silver from Worlds last year. That was no fluke, and if you take into consideration the news from Kozak below, expectations on Retherford have never been higher.

Taishi Narikuni, the 70kg 2022 world champ is competing in Greco at 67kg in Japan's upcoming Emperor's Cup.

That means he will not be at this year's Worlds in freestyle making Zain Retherford the gold medal favorite.

— Jon Kozak (@KozakJon) June 13, 2023

Retherford is going to be in some tight matches and I expect a scare or two. He isn’t a lock for a medal like some of his World Team teammates. He has to be consistent for a while longer before he gets that tag, but this could be his year.

Prediction: Gold

74 kg: Kyle Dake

Likelihood of medaling: lock

Top International Guys

Tajmuraz Salkazanov, SVK

Frank Chamizo, ITA

Younes Emami, IRI

Avtandil Kentchadze, GEO

Barring injury or some unforeseen freak accident, Kyle Dake is going to bring home a medal. It would be surprising if he didn’t win gold, but shocking if he didn’t medal. He only has one international loss in the past five years, and even then, he brought home bronze. The guys just beat Jason Nolf in two-straight matches without giving up a point. He has shown no signs of regression and has beaten the top guys he will see in Serbia.

Prediction: Gold

79 kg: Chance Marsteller

Likelihood of medaling: high

Top International Guys

Ali Savadkouhi, IRI

Vasyl Mykhailov, UKR

Daulet Yergesh, KAZ

I have a great amount of confidence in Chance Marsteller bringing home a medal from Belgrade. “He can’t do it on the World stage.” “He’s just a bad matchup for Burroughs.” “He’s too one-dimensional.” Nope. Forget all that talk. If beating Burroughs at Final X didn’t convince you, he’s already beaten who I expect to be the best wrestler in the field at Worlds - Ali Savadkouhi of Iran. That’s the Iranian that beat Burroughs at the World Cup. Marsteller beat him in July of last year.

Watch Chance Marsteller beat Ali Savadkouhi below.

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That being said, Savadkouhi isn’t even a lock to make the Iranian team. Also, Marsteller hasn't gone unblemished recently either. Since beating Savadkouhi, Marsteller has lost to both Amirhossein Kavousi, who is either 2nd or 3rd on the Iranian 79 kg ladder. He also lost to Avtendil Kentchadze of Georgia at the same event he lost to Kavousi, but he’ll go back down to 74 kg for Worlds.

It helps Marsteller that outside of Iran, 79 kg isn’t a very deep weight.

Prediction: Silver

86 kg: David Taylor

Likelihood of medaling: lock

Top International Guys

Hassan Yazdani, IRI

Dauren Kurugliev, GRE

Hayato Ishiguro, JPN

David Taylor is as much a lock to medal as anyone on the team. He looked the best he ever has at Worlds last year when he beat Iranian rival Hassan Yazdani 7-1 and showed no signs of regression against Aaron Brooks at Final X. Yazdani did beat Taylor at the 2021 World Championships, but as long as the 2022 Worlds/2023 Final X version of Taylor shows up, I don’t see that happening again.

Prediction: Gold

92 kg: Zahid Valencia

Likelihood of medaling: pretty high

Top International Guys

Kamran Ghasempour, IRI

Feyzullah Akturk, Akturk

Osman Nurmagomedov, AZE

Arash Yoshida, JPN

Zahid Valencia is interesting because we’ve only seen him at 92 kg twice, and never seen him compete there internationally. The way he dominated at the World Team Trials Challenge Tournament and Final X, combined with the fact he has three more months to acclimate to the weight, and I’m feeling good about Zahid’s chances in Belgrade.

The top couple guys at 92 kg are pretty solid. I like Zahid, but would give him little chance against Iran’s 2X World champ Kamran Ghasempour. However, I would be surprised if Valencia doesn’t pick up a couple of wins at this non Olympic weight.

Prediction: bronze

97 kg: Kyle Snyder

Likelihood of medaling: lock

Top International Guys

Mohammad Mohammadian, IRI

Givi Matcharashvili, GEO

Magomedkhan Magomedov, AZE

Akhmed Tazhudinov, BRN

Magomed Ibragimov, UZB

Kyle Snyder has been the staple of consistency for Team USA. He has never gone to the World/Olympic Championships and not medaled. Probably Snyder’s top competition will be Mohammad Mohammadian of Iran. And while Mohammadian did beat Snyder once in 2020, Kyle beat him 4-1 at Worlds last year. And with Mohammadian losing in the bronze match, there is a small chance Iran goes with Mojtaba Goleij or Amirali Azarpira     as their rep.

Kyle Snyder not winning would be surprising - him not medaling is unfathomable.

Prediction: Gold

125 kg: Gable Steveson

Likelihood of medaling: extremely high

Top International Guys

Taha Akgul, TUR

Amir Zare, IRI

Geno Petriashvili, GEO

Giorgi Meshvilidishvili, AZE

Fair or not, the only reason I didn’t put Gable Steveson as a lock to medal at the World Championships is that his par terre defense makes me nervous and 125 kg has some heavy hitters at the top (pun intended). Unlike guys like Dake, Taylor, and Snyder, Steveson has only gone on one World/Olympic run. And don’t forget, Petriashvili gutted Gable twice and it took one of the most iconic comebacks in Olympic wrestling history for Gable to win. That being said, I’m sure Gable is still one of the greatest wrestlers I’ve been blessed to watch compete in person.

Prediction: Gold