If you go strictly by seeds, Penn State is the clear favorite entering the 2022 NCAA Championships in Detroit. The Nittany Lions have 113 predicted points with Michigan at 96.5 and Iowa at 81.5. 

This is a three-team title race. Period.

The above predictions, however, are only predictions. Bonus points aren’t factored in and there are no upsets. This is a straight line formula — and we all know the NCAA tournament is not a straight line. 

Two weights classes will determine which of these teams takes home the title: 141 and 197 pounds. Let’s take a look a why these brackets are important and how they will affect the outcome.

141 pounds

Michigan’s Stevan Micic enters as the 24-seed, which seems low given he is an eighth-year senior who has placed fourth, second, and third at the national tournament from 2017-19. And, oh yeah, he’s a 202One Olympian for Serbia.

However, Micic was an All-American at 133 pounds and he competed at 57 kilograms (approximately 125 pounds) during the Olympics. Moving up a college weight didn’t work as planned during the regular season for the Wolverine star. He is 10-6 on the season and placed fourth at the B10 Championships last week. 

His path to placing at the conference tournament could provide clues on how he will perform at nationals. Micic lost his opening match to Purdue’s Parker Filius, 7-4 — then won four matches in a row on the backside before losing to match to Jake Bergeland, 10-6, for third. 

Micic’s fourth win was a medical forfeit to Sebastian Rivera of Rutgers who enters as the third seed following an undefeated season. 

The Michigan senior is predicted to score zero points for his team — an unlikely scenario given his success at the NCAA Championships and his draw. Micic will face Missouri’s #9 Allan Hart (15-5) in the first round, which is a winnable match. He would face Oregon State’s #8 Grant Willits (24-5) or Oklahoma State’s #25 Carter Young (12-7) in the second round if he wins — another winnable match.

An appearance in the quarterfinals is a real possibility for Micic. This would garner two team points for Michigan on the first day. Not enough to close the gap on Penn State or Iowa, but it puts him in a position to place. 

If he makes it that far, his quarterfinal match would likely be against Penn State’s #1 Nick Lee (17-0). Micic controls his fate from here. Lee is predicted to win but not giving up bonus points could play a factor if the team race gets tight. 

Should Micic lose in the quarters, he would drop down to the consolation bracket where he is one match away from being an All-American. The fate of Michigan’s tournament could rest in his hands depending on where — or if — he places. 

Should Micic win in the quarters, the brackets just got busted. Michigan would score a minimum of 10 points for placing sixth (seven plus three for advancement) and the Wolverines have a shot at winning in Detroit. 

Should Micic lose in the first or second round, he has the resolve to wrestle well on the backside. Bonus points seem unlikely since all of his matches at the B1G Championship were close — but we’ve seen good wrestlers get on a roll in the consolation bracket to place.

Or, Micic could go 0-2 and score zero team points. 

Iowa’s #2 Jaydin Eierman (16-1) will also influence the final outcome. Eierman is already a four-time All-American with national placings of 5-4-3-2. There’s no reason he can’t add a 1 to his college credentials. Eierman can score points in bunches — and the Hawkeyes will need every bit of what he can provide. 

The Iowa senior should reach the semifinals where he might face #3 Sebastian Rivera of Rutgers. Rivera reached the semifinals at B10s with a fall and a major decision but medical forfeited to sixth place. Eierman medical forfeited in the finals to Lee. An NCAA tournament finals rematch between Lee and Eierman will make things interesting. 

There are a handful of scenarios here that will affect the team race.

197 pounds

Talk about chaotic. This bracket has all kinds of twists and turns that will affect the final outcome. Penn State’s Max Dean (18-1) is #1, Michigan’s Patrick Brucki (20-6) is #4, and Iowa’s Jacob Warner (17-5) is #6.

Dean and Brucki didn’t compete at last year’s NCAA Championships but both will factor into what happens this time around. Dean and Brucki are predicted to meet in the semifinals, which, of course, will affect the final outcome if Michigan and Penn State are close. 

Brucki lost to Dean 6-4 in sudden victory during the dual after controlling the first half of the match. Both lost close matches to Nebraska’s Eric Schultz (16-2) at the B10 Championships so this match is a toss-up if it materializes. 

This is where Michigan and Iowa can gain ground in the team race. Warner finished fourth last year after placing seventh in 2019. He should reach the quarterfinals where he’s predicted to face #3 Schultz. The Cornhusker star holds a 3-2 college career lead over Warner, including the last three.

All the matches were close, though. A win by Warner puts him in the semifinals where he might face #2 Stephen Buchanan of Wyoming, #7 Rocky Elam of Missouri, or someone who pulled off an early upset. 

Then, if it materializes, Warner could face Dean or Brucki in the finals. 

Of all 10 weights, this is the most wide open. All three are solid bets to place, but the order affects the team race. The higher the place for Michigan and Iowa, the better chance they have of taking home the team title.