Penn State received its draws and the seeds look favorable for the Nittany Lions to win their ninth championship over the past 11 contested tournaments. Cael Sanderson and his team earned four top seeds with six out of 10 wrestlers seeded in the top four. 

The remaining three wrestlers (Penn State did not qualify a wrestler at 165 pounds) are seeded outside of the top eight, which means they are not predicted to place. Here is a look at what might happen. 

125 pounds: #16 Drew Hildebrandt (9-3) — 1.5 projected team points

Hildebrandt, a transfer from Central Michigan, placed fourth at the 2021 NCAA Championships but is seeded #16 for his senior campaign. The Penn State senior went 0-2 at the B1G Championships, which ultimately led to a lower seeding. 

The road to a spot on the podium won’t be easy. He drew Lock Haven’s Anthony Noto in the first round, which is a winnable match. Noto is 29-1 on the season but he didn’t run the gauntlet of a B10 schedule. Should Hildebrandt win there, he will face top-seeded Nick Suriano of Michigan in the second round. This match is important for both teams since Penn State and Michigan will likely be locked in a tight team race. 

133 pounds: #1 Roman Bravo-Young (17-0) — 20 projected team points

Bravo-Young will face either Domenic Zaccone (Campbell) or Dominic LaJoie (Cornell). It won’t matter who he wrestles since the Nittany Lion star likely won’t get tested until the quarterfinals — maybe the semifinals. 

A potential rematch with Iowa’s Austin DeSanto wouldn’t happen until the semis. Bravo-Young holds a 5-2 edge over DeSanto but both matches this season have been close. The predicted quarterfinal match would be against #8 RayVon Foley of Michigan State or #9 Michael Colaiocco of Penn. RBY hasn’t faced either wrestler this season; however, Foley is a returning All-American at 125 pounds who is 26-4 while Colaiocco is 21-2. 

Hear from RBY after winning the B10 Championships

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141 pounds: #1 Nick Lee (17-0) — 20 projected team points

Lee has a nice path once he finds out who he’s facing after Dylan Cedeno (Virginia) and Josh Mason (Bloomsburg) wrestle their pigtail match. From there, he’ll face Ohio State’s Dylan D’Emilio (21-9) or Rider’s Quinn Kinner (18-6) in the second round. Lee has three college wins over D’Emilio and all were by major decision or better. Kinner gave Lee a 6-3 match on February 20 so, on paper, that’s a tougher match for Lee heading into the quarters.

149 pounds: #13 Beau Bartlett (14-8) — 1.5 projected team points

Bartlett drew Northern Iowa’s Colin Realbuto (16-10) in the first round, which is a winnable match for both wrestlers. Don’t let Realbuto’s 10 losses fool you. He’s faced stiff competition through the season and is coming off an 8-6 win over returning All-American Jarett Degen (Iowa State) during his third-place match at the Big 12 Championships. 

If Bartlett wins his opening match, he will likely face Ohio State’s #4 Sammy Sasso in the second round. Sasso has a 2-0 college career advantage but both were two-point matches. An upset here by Bartlett could go a long way during a tight team race. 

157 pounds: #16 Brady Berge (9-2) — 1.5 projected team points

Berge is back for his final college season after starting the year as an assistant for South Dakota State. His path to the podium will be difficult, though. He drew Oregon State’s Hunter Willits (13-6) in the first round and will likely have returning NCAA champion David Carr (Iowa State) in the second round. 

165 pounds: No qualifier

174 pounds: #1 Carter Starocci (18-0) — 20 projected team points

Starocci will face either Connor O’Neill (Rutgers) or Dominic Solis (Maryland) in the first round followed by a match between Cal Poly’s #16 Adam Kemp (13-4) or Penn’s #17 Nick Incontrera (20-6) in the second round. 

The path to a second NCAA title gets tougher from there. The predicted quarterfinal match is between either #8 Michael O’Malley of Drexel (22-2) or #9 Mikey Labriola of Nebraska (20-4). Labriola took Starocci into sudden victory last season so this could be an intriguing match if it materializes. The Nittany Lion star wouldn’t face Iowa’s Michael Kemerer — one of two wrestlers to notch a win in college over Starocci — until the semifinals. 

Starocci after his win over Michigan's Logan Massa

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184 pounds: #2 Aaron Brooks (16-1) — 16 projected team points

Brooks is the reigning national champion at this weight but is seeded second after a loss in the B1G Championship finals to Michigan’s Myles Amine. A potential second-round match against Iowa’s #18 Abe Assad (13-8) stands out. Assad faces #15 Hunter Bolen (22-5) of Virginia Tech in the first round so either could offer a tough first-day test for Brooks. Assad hung tough with Brooks at times during the dual while Bolen placed seventh at the 2021 NCAA tournament and is a four-time qualifier.

Ohio State’s #7 Kaleb Romero (13-3) is the projected quarterfinal match, which offers another tough test for Brooks. Rocky Jordan replaced Romero in the dual so a Romero-Brooks match never materialized this season. Of Romero’s three losses, two were to Amine — and both were two-point matches. Expect this to be a great match if it happens. 

Aaron Brooks after his win against Myles Amine during the dual

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197 pounds: #1 Max Dean (18-1) — 20 projected team points

Of Penn State’s top seeds, Dean has the toughest road to the finals. He should win his opening match over Matthew Waddell (Chattanooga) or Will Feldkamp (Clarion) but the degree of difficulty goes up from there. Waiting in the second round will either be Virginia’s #17 Jay Aiello (13-3) or Arizona State’s #16 Kordell Norfleet (14-3). If he gets past either of those, he’ll likely face Binghamton’s #8 Lou Deprez (26-3) or Michigan State’s #9 Cameron Caffey (26-7). There’s a reason 197 pounds is the most wide-open weight at this year’s national tournament. 

285 pounds: #4 Greg Kerkvliet (18-2) — 12.5 projected team points 

Kerkvliet is on the same side as Minnesota’s #1 Gable Steveson but they won’t face each other until the semifinals. Getting there seems likely based on his quad of the bracket. His toughest test would be against Wyatt Hendrickson (24-0) of Air Force in the quarterfinals. Hendrickson is undefeated but, unlike Kerkvliet, he hasn’t faced any of the top wrestlers in the bracket. Kerkvliet and Steveson are both Minnesota natives who faced off during a super match (won by Steveson, 3-2) in high school. Steveson won again, 9-4, during the quarterfinals of the 2021 NCAA Championships.