On February 13th, the Oklahoma State Cowboys will take on the Iowa Hawkeyes at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas. The Cowboys will be underdogs entering the bout, but there is certainly a path to victory over the Hawkeyes. Take a look below at the probable starters for each team along with what the Oklahoma State wrestlers will need to do to secure the upset.

Probable Lineups:

125: #12 Trevor Mastrogiovanni (OK State) vs #10 Drake Ayala/Jesse Ybarra (Iowa)

133: #2 Daton Fix (OK State) vs #3 Austin DeSanto (Iowa)

141: #17 Carter Young (OK State) vs #2 Jaydin Eierman (Iowa)

149: #18 Kaden Gfeller (OK State) vs #10 Max Murin (Iowa)

157: #14 Wyatt Sheets (OK State) vs #13 Kaleb Young (Iowa)

165: #7 Travis Wittlake (OK State) vs #5 Alex Marinelli (Iowa)

174: #10 Dustin Plott (OK State) vs #2 Michael Kemerer (Iowa)

184: #9 Dakota Geer (OK State) vs #16 Abe Assad (Iowa)

197: Gavin Stika (OK State) vs #3 Jacob Warner (Iowa)

285: Luke Surber (OK State) vs #2 Tony Cassioppi (Iowa)

Avoid The Upsets

Of the ten matches, Oklahoma State is only favored at 2 weights - 133 and 184. At 133, Daton Fix is 2-0 in his collegiate career against #3 Austin DeSanto - including a 3-2 win in the semi-finals of the 2021 NCAA Tournament. The Cowboys need another win out of Fix to keep them on track. Should DeSanto secure the upset, the path to victory for the Cowboys becomes almost impossible. 

At 184, #9 Dakota Geer is a slight favorite over #16 Abe Assad. The two have never met in competition and have had similar seasons this year. Geer is coming off losses to Marcus Coleman and Parker Keckeisen but has ranked wins on the season over #16 Tate Samuelson, #22 Isaiah Salazar, and HM Darrien Roberts. On top of that, Geer is a two-time All-American, while Assad has yet to earn AA honors. The 184-pound bout isn’t the most highly anticipated bout, but it’s crucial to the final result of the dual.

Highlights from Fix’s win over DeSanto at the 2021 NCAA Tournament:

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Win The Toss-Ups

There are three matches in this dual where Iowa is a slight favorite, but it’s not unrealistic for Oklahoma State to get the win in those bouts. When it comes to winning the dual, the Cowboys NEED wins at 125, 149, and 157. At 125, Trevor Mastrogiovanni is the most likely to pull the upset against Drake Ayala. Mastrogiovanni is 11-1 on the year and even has a win over #8 Patrick McKee (who has 3 wins over Ayala). Mastro could start the Cowboys off with a bang should he pull off the upset.

After 125, Wyatt Sheets at 157 is the next most likely to secure the upset against Kaleb Young. The two have met three times in their collegiate careers with Young holding the lead in the series, 2-1. They last met in the 7-8th place match at the 2021 NCAA tournament with Young winning a narrow, 3-2 victory. Sheets’ win came in the 2020 season during the Iowa and Oklahoma State dual - he won 9-4 in that meeting. The Cowboys need a repeat of that performance from Sheets to help them win the dual in Arlington.

The third and final “toss-up” match the Cowboys need is at 149-pounds - #18 Kaden Gfeller vs #10 Max Murin. The two haven’t met in competition but are having similar seasons. Gfeller is 10-1 on the year and has ranked wins over HM Jarrett Degen and #23 Michael Blockhus. Murin is currently 7-2 with ranked wins over #15 Beau Bartlett, #11 Yahya Thomas, and #23 Michael Blockhus. Gfeller is no stranger to big matches and often wrestles his best when the "lights are brightest." The Cowboys will need the best version of Gfeller to take this dual.

Remember when Gfeller pinned Nick Lee?

One Big Upset

The above matches put the Cowboys at 5 wins for the dual. Because Iowa will likely secure bonus-point wins at multiple weights, Oklahoma State will likely need one more win to propel them to victory over the Hawkeyes. Of the remaining wrestlers for Oklahoma State, Travis Wittlake and Dustin Plott are the highest ranked and most likely to come through with the “big upset”. The problem is Wittlake and Plott are up against two of the best Hawkeyes - #5 Alex Marinelli and #2 Michael Kemerer. Of those two match-ups, I like Wittlake because of his last meeting with Marinelli. Wittlake and Marinelli wrestled during the 2020 dual meet where Marinelli won a close, 3-2 decision. In that match, the score was tied at 1 in the third period before Marinelli scored a takedown off a high-crotch with just under a minute remaining in the match. Despite the loss, Wittlake proved this will be a competitive match and one he’s in until the end. An upset for Wittlake here wouldn’t be the craziest thing to happen this college wrestling season.

Marinelli's win over Wittlake:

There you have it! While the path to victory is slim for Oklahoma State, it’s certainly not an impossible feat for the Cowboys to achieve. In case you weren’t keeping score along the way, take at how the complete scenario looks below.

Mock Dual Recap:

125: Mastrogiovanni (OK State) dec Ayala (Iowa) - OK State 3, Iowa 0

133: Fix (OK State) dec DeSanto (Iowa) - OK State 6, Iowa 0

141: Eierman (Iowa) major dec Young (OK State) - OK State 6, Iowa 4

149: Gfeller (OK State) dec Murin (Iowa) - OK State 9, Iowa 4

157: Sheets (OK State) dec Young (Iowa) - OK State 12, Iowa 4

165: Wittlake (OK State) dec Marinelli (Iowa) - OK State 15, Iowa 4

174: Kemerer (Iowa) dec Plott (OK State) - OK State 15, Iowa 7

184: Geer (OK State) dec Assad (Iowa) - OK State 18, Iowa 7

197: Warner (Iowa) major dec Stika (OK State) - OK State 18, Iowa 11

285: Cassioppi (Iowa) major dec Surber (OK State) - OK State 18, Iowa 15

Mock final score - Oklahoma State 18, Iowa 15