Here we go. Yes, NCAAs will be a little different this year, but the wrestling is still going to be awesome and you’re still going to watch. So, like we always do at this time, the content will be coming in fast and furious for the signature event of the college wrestling calendar. Today starts the sprint of previews, kicking off with 125 pounds.

NCAA Brackets on FloArena

This weight was a little more interesting at the beginning of the season before we knew Sebastian Rivera would be wrestling at 133 lbs, but 125 is looking like a one-horse race after a dominant season from Spencer Lee.

Title Contenders

#1 Spencer Lee

All-American Threats

#2 Pat Glory

#3 Nicholas Piccininni

#4 Jack Mueller

#5 Devin Schroder

#6 Drew Hildebrandt

#7 Brandon Paetzell

#8 Michael DeAugustino

#9 Brandon Courtney

#10 Jacob Camancho

#11 Michael Colaiocco

#12 Alex Mackall

Yes, I am aware that Nick Piccininni once pinned Spencer Lee. Spencer’s also beaten him four times. Once by 10-5 decision, once by pin, once by 11-4 decision, and this season by 12-3 major decision. It’s clear to me that Picc pinning Spencer was an outlier of a result and is very unlikely to happen again. 

Spencer is having an unbelievable year. He’s undefeated and his one non-bonus point victory is an 8-1 decision over Jack Medley. In addition to being in a tier of his own this season, Spencer is notorious for wrestling his best at the NCAA Tournament.

Prior to conference weekend, I would have said the man with the best shot at defeating Spencer Lee would have been Jack Mueller, who he met in the NCAA finals last year. However, after losing to Jakob Camacho 11-4 in the ACC finals, I just can’t say that anyone else is a legitimate title contender. 

As for the AA threats, it’s pretty clear. This weight was fairly easy to seed and played out nicely. 

Now, let’s break this down by session.

Session I

Matches To Watch

Jacob Schwarm vs Nic Aguilar

Michael Colaiocco vs Liam Cronin

Malik Heinselman vs Drew Hildebrandt

Obviously so many of these matches are going to be awesome, but if I’m narrowing it down to ones here in the first round that are really going to be great, closely contested, and between two good wrestlers, it’s these three.

Schwarm vs Aguilar could be a close match, but Schwarm is also a pinner. When he gets on top he’s going to do everything in his power to stick his head in his opponent’s side, crunch him up, lock up a cradle, and pin him. So far this year, it’s got him 17 falls. That fact alone, meaning Schwarm is never truly out of a match, makes him so much fun to watch. 

After getting out to a bit of a rough start the season, Liam Cronin has come on strong in the second half. In his last 13 matches, he’s 11-2 with a 3-2 loss to Michael DeAugustino and a wild 17-12 loss to Alex Thomsen at Big Tens that he later avenged by pin. This could mean trouble for 11 seed Michael Colaiocco, who went just 1-2 at EIWAs.

Not a great first-round draw if you’re 6 seed Drew Hildebrandt. Malik Heinselman took him to overtime at the MSU Open early this season, where Hildebrandt did end up winning 7-5. Hildebrandt might have the best chance of any top-six seed to lose in the opening round.

Session II

Potential Matches To Watch

Brandon Courtney vs Michael DeAugustino

Devin Schroder vs Alex Mackall

Brandon Paetzell vs Jakob Camacho

This session will be jam-packed with good wrestling. In the second match from the top, we could get a rubber match and quite the clash of styles between Brandon Courtney and Michael DeAugustino. Courtney won 10-3 at Midlands last season, but DeAugustino won 6-3 at CKLV this season.

Alex Mackall received the 12th seed, but Schroder vs Mackall is a top 10 rankings matchup. Schroder will rightfully be the favorite as he won earlier this season, but don’t count Mackall out of this CKLV semifinal rematch.

Jakob Camacho’s stock shot up after he soundly beat Jack Mueller in the ACC finals whereas Brandon Paetzell's loss to Joe Manchio in the EIWA quarterfinals slightly dropped his. This makes this second-round match even more intriguing. If Jakob Camacho stays red hot, he can make a run at this tournament.

Session III

Quarterfinal Picks

Lee over DeAugustino

Mueller over Schroder

Piccininni over Colaiocco

Glory over Paetzell

Spencer Lee is going to Spencer Lee. Expect a single leg or two and a tilt or four.

Mueller vs Schroder is a rematch of the CKLV finals, where Mueller won 6-2.

Unlock this video, live events, and more with a subscription!

Sign Up

Already a subscriber? Log In

Although Schroder is peaking at the right time and Mueller has sat out part of the season with an injury and just took a loss, I still expect a similar match to the CKLV final. Remember when Mueller beat Sebastian Rivera 8-2 at last year’s NCAAs? Yeah, he’s really good.

Michael Colaiocco is having a solid true freshman year, but this isn’t Piccininni’s first rodeo. I don’t see Colaiocco getting past the fifth-year senior.

Glory has made some big improvements and really looks like a man on a mission this year. This match went to overtime in the dual, but I think Glory is able to get things done over Paetzell in regulation this time.\

Session IV

Semifinal Predictions

Lee over Mueller

Glory over Piccininni

Unlock this video, live events, and more with a subscription!

Sign Up

Already a subscriber? Log In

Is there a chance Mueller beats Lee? Absolutely. Mueller’s 5-0 finals loss is much closer than any match Spencer has had this year. He’ll have to game plan and then execute extremely well, however. A game plan that looks something along the lines of going into the 2nd period tied at 0 or up 2-0, ride Spencer out in the second, and avoid getting taken down in the third. I just don’t see it happening. Lee by 8-1 decision.

Like I said above Glory is wrestling great this season. After losing to Picc three times last year, he beat him soundly in the dual this season. To me it also feels like Picc is keeping matches a little closer this year than he has in the past. Picc always seems to wrestle great at NCAAs, but I still think Glory gets it done. 7-5 Glory by decision.

Session V

Backside Predictions

Don’t forget about the backside! After losing a heartbreaker in the semis to Glory, Picc is able to rebound in the consi semis in a hard-fought battle over Schroder. In the bottom consi semi, Mueller out scrambles Paetzell and then uses that mean top game to make his way into the third-place match.

For seventh, Michael DeAugustino finishes on the right side of the podium as a freshman by beating Brandon Courtney, just like he did at CKLV.

For fifth, Schroder outlasts Paetzell to win 5-4.

Third place should be a lot of fun with Picc and Mueller. Mueller once again uses a two-on-one, scrambling abilities, and top game to come out victorious. Picc finishes his college career in fourth place, just like he did as a freshman. 

Session VI

Remember when Lee tech falled Glory but so many people were still coming away from the match impressed with Lee? Well, here it is just in case you forgot.

Unlock this video, live events, and more with a subscription!

Sign Up

Already a subscriber? Log In

Glory was able to close the gap to a 12-6 regular decision at Midlands and the two haven’t wrestled since. Similar to Mueller, am I saying there’s absolutely no chance Pat Glory beats Spencer Lee? No. Would I be absolutely shocked if it happened? Yes. When it’s all said and done Spencer Lee will be one of the best college wrestlers of all time.

Rader’s AA Pics

1. Lee

2. Glory

3. Mueller

4. Piccininni

5. Schroder

6. Paetzell

7. DeAugustino

8. Courtney