Iowa currently holds a 71-point lead over Penn State based on projected totals from our rankings. Ohio State is currently ranked third, but a number of teams are chasing them in the race for a top-four trophy at NCAAs. A few weights in this dual could help swing the projected point totals for either team.

#6 Sasso Has a Win Over #1 Lugo

Pat Lugo is undefeated and earned the top spot at 149 after he beat then #1 Austin O'Connor in this season's Midlands finals. On Friday night, he's taking on #6 Sammy Sasso in a rematch of the third-place match from the 2018 Midlands Championships.

Lugo led late in that match, but Sasso got a takedown in the last minute of regulation to force overtime. He followed that up by scrambling out of a Lugo shot for a takedown in sudden victory. It does appear that Lugo has improved since last year, so anything feels possible in this matchup.

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Lugo's #1 ranking is good for a projected 20 points while Sasso's #6 ranking only projects him to score 9 at NCAAs. If Sasso is able to get another win over Lugo, Ohio State would distance themselves a bit more from the trophy contenders while Iowa would come back toward Penn State a bit.

#3 Murin Aims for #1 Pletcher

Iowa's Max Murin is coming off a loss to #6 Chad Red, but his body of work has kept him at #3 in the country. He'll have his toughest test of the year this weekend when #1 Luke Pletcher comes to Carver-Hawkeye Arena.

Pletcher has picked up his offensive productivity this year. His 61.11-percent bonus rate is nearly double the 32.35-percent mark he had in 2018-2019, his second-best season. Outside of a sudden victory match against Real Woods, Pletcher has controlled every opponent he's faced.

Murin is also putting together the most solid season of his career with a Midlands title and a win over #4 Tristan Moran. He'll be the underdog against Pletcher, but a win is not out of the question.

If Murin knocks off Pletcher, he'll almost certainly move to #2 in the rankings behind Nick Lee; that move from three to two would be good for a 3.5-point bump in Iowa's projected team score while the drop from 1 to 3 would move Ohio State down by 6.5 and put them in striking distance of a number of squads.

#4 Warner Looks to Avenge Loss to #1 Moore

Kollin Moore, like his teammate Luke Pletcher, has looked nearly untouchable this year. He's undefeated and his bonus point rate of 83.33 percent is one of the best in the country.

Warner, who is 10-3, will have his work cut out for him against Moore. These two met in the Big Ten semifinals last year with Moore coming out on top in a 5-3 decision.

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While Kollin Moore is the heavy favorite, he has been known to take surprising losses from time to time, and Carver-Hawkeye Arena is probably the most hostile wrestling environment in the country.

If Warner is able to pull off the upset, Warner would probably move to the #2 spot while Moore would most likely become the #3. That would mean +3.5 for Iowa and -6.5 for Ohio State.

Less Likely Upsets at 165 and 174

Iowa will be favored in the remaining seven bouts, and while upsets do not appear to be likely in any of those remaining bouts, Ohio State's best opportunities are at 165 and 174.

Ohio State 165-pounder Ethan Smith has put together a solid season that has him sitting at #12 in the rankings. His brightest spot this year came in a dual against Virginia Tech where he beat #3 David McFadden. So while #1 Marinelli has the major edge on Smith, that upset can't be ruled out.

At 174, Kaleb Romero has also been putting together a nice season and is up to #8 in the rankings. He'll have a tough task in #3 Michael Kemerer who is 7-0 with four bonus-point wins. Kemerer is the logical pick here, but Romero's solid and could pick up a win here.

Of course, either of those upsets would lead to big movement in the team score. All of these possibilities make this Friday's Ohio State vs Iowa match one of the most important duals of the weekend.