We could spend weeks coming up with catchy names for this tilt (my current favorite is The Battle to Paint Carver-Hawkeye Green, although the Pot O’ Gold Sweepstakes has a nice WNO tie-in…) but I think we can all agree that our time is better spent breaking down just exactly how these two powerhouses can expect to emerge victorious from this bruising battle. In a card filled top to bottom with tantalizing matchups, Gallagher and O’Toole leap out as the bout most likely to be both insanely exciting, and also ridiculously close.

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Who’s #1 invariably collects together the top talent in the country, so seeing wrestlers take the floor with a potent mix of power, speed, and technique is hardly a surprise, but Gallagher and O’Toole balance that out with hyper levels of all three, paired with top-level mat awareness and wrestling IQs that are off the charts. These two are so mat-savvy, and seemingly five moves ahead at all times, that we might need to make an additional chart for them to still exceed beyond the elite measurements. That they have chosen to meet at 10 paces and then tear into one another under freestyle rules adds another thrilling element to what was already a powder keg ready to explode.

Just looking at the rankings, you know how tightly contested this looks to be. St. Ed’s Junior Paddy Gallagher is currently uncommitted and locked in at 5 on the 2021 Big Board, coming in at 10 on the P4P, and 2nd at 160 just behind Alex Facundo. Arrowhead Senior Keegan O’Toole is a Mizzou commit and also locked in at 5 on the Big Board, this time for the class of 2020. He is also right on Gallagher’s heels at 11 on the P4P, and numero uno at 152.

O’Toole has the added year of high school experience, though each combatant has been thoroughly tested on the biggest stages, and he may be conceding a little weight, though I expect both participants to hit the scale in optimal shape to do optimal damage, so those factors are a wash for me. Gallagher may think choosing freestyle gives him an advantage, but in what may well be the craziest shootout of the night, is that really the case?

Let’s look at where each one of these warriors might find a vital edge...

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Give This Kid A Hand

O’Toole loves to get in close and dig deep with a big underhook or tricky hand fight. Normally this is a massive strength for him, but Gallagher is superman-strong and not easily moved aside. Keegan has on occasion had to adjust his game to patiently work inside due to longer opponents, but brick house Gallagher isn’t a concern in that regard, and won’t shy away from it. In fact, he will be pushing for things to get in tight. 

I am sure that he has seen that the best way to deal with O’Toole is to put him in a front headlock as quickly as you can and dictate his movement. Both Yahya Thomas and Jace Luchau took this path and I expect Gallagher to do the same.

O’Toole doesn’t need to control the ties as much as he needs room to work. That separation will be crucial and forcing Paddy to shoot from space plays right into Keegan’s hand (literally). If we see Gallagher getting to a front headlock early and often, O’Toole will have to re-write the game plan on the fly, and I think Gallagher will be able to do so more than Keegan would prefer.

Advantage: Gallagher

Scrambled Eggs

This is going to potentially be the most fun we have all night. Get ready to watch these two throwing the kitchen sink at each other until one of them finally cracks. Neither one of these guys will ever concede an exchange and you can be certain that as soon as you think someone is on top, the other will snatch an ankle out of nowhere and start things all over again. Add in some of that Askren funk that O’Toole is well-versed in and no position is ever safe. (To be honest, both are so effective on the mat that I vote for a zero stalemate policy for this match and just let them keep exchanging advantages until someone gets pinned.) 

Gallagher may feel confident firing in from all angles, but O’Toole will use that bravado against you and slip right past and suddenly be grabbing a single leg. O’Toole also has jelly knees and a much longer wingspan than one would think, which allows him to hit the splits and pluck those limbs when you least expect it. Keegan is also good for a few crazy cartwheels and dives over the back when needed, essentially doing whatever it takes to get himself out of danger and into position, to the point that you find yourself holding your breath during his matches. The kid brings the funk!

While Keegan is well-equipped to keep things alive on the mat, none of that is to say that Gallagher isn’t the perfect guy to blast through it all. O’Toole might be the more flamboyant of the two on the ground, but Paddy is rock solid and filled with grit and determination and didn’t get to where he is by not winning more than his fair share of scrambles.

Mike Mal marvels at Keegan’s mat intelligence:

Advantage: O’Toole

Pay At The Counter

Gallagher is most likely to be the aggressor if the hand fighting breaks down early, so the real swing might be in how O’Toole counters those shots. He has fantastic defense, particularly when his defense is in trying to direct you into his web of chain wrestling moves that leave him suddenly getting a two raised in his favor. Gallagher is compact and can encounter trouble with long arms getting to his ankles, but he is also tenacious and Keegan will be hard-pressed to keep him from muscling through once he digs in.

You won’t find a kid more comfortable in a quadpod than Keegan O’Toole. In fact, he is so proficient that many would consider that nearly an offensive position for him. When you see Keegan hopping around on one leg in a match, you just start counting the seconds until he suddenly turns it into his advantage. The kid is always ready to break out the toolbox of counter moves, so how does Gallagher counter the counter specialist? He attacks center mass.

Paddy is normally comfortable mixing it up in any position, but he is best served by getting to O’Toole’s waist as quickly as he can. Deal with those legs on the ground and close off any gaps that Keegan looks to create with his range. Should a quick counter come, Gallagher is also adept at making himself very heavy at just the right time and landing on top of any throws. He will also need to wrestle without being too deep in his own head, and that can be difficult knowing that O’Toole can MacGyver himself out of peril at a moment’s notice. 

Everyone’s favorite O’Toole finish:

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Advantage: O’Toole

Par Terre This Joint Up

If things unravel for O’ Toole, this will likely be the spot. We have already covered his ability to defend all over the mat, and par terre is no different, but Gallagher can roll up the best of the best and is a whirling dervish once he gets going. If Keegan is on top, with elite competition he tends to be a methodical worker and low risk in turning his prey, which is to his disadvantage as Gallagher has struggled to stop the points somewhat with top guys once they get him going.

The fascinating aspect of watching a Keegan O’Toole match is that he never really seems vulnerable, no matter how many pretzels he is being twisted in to. However, if Gallagher manages to get him on his belly he will look to maximize his points with a quick transition to a lace. If he works into a position higher up he will turn a fast tilt from the gut. Paddy’s offense puts a lot of energy into getting points at every opportunity in freestyle, and those can add up quickly, and pay huge dividends later.

Here is Gallagher filling up his basket with those extra points on his way to a Fargo title:

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Advantage: Gallagher

Luck O’ The Irish

In almost any matchup you could say an intangible could factor in and create a lucky break, but these two studs create their own luck. Adjusting with lightning quickness and working tirelessly, there isn’t an ounce of quit between them. No lead will be safe and we can expect wild reversals and an incredible display of wrestling, both on their feet and on the mat. Both combatants should be at a hundred percent with more than enough prep time. Luck won’t play a part.

Here is Gallagher showing that no-quit mentality in his Fargo quarter against Cael Valencia:

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Advantage: It’s A Wash

Everything I am writing here hints at the potential for an O’Toole victory, but I think Paddy will pick up just enough points in par terre to allow him to grab the win by the thinnest of margins. 

Foster’s Pick: Gallagher