In 2020 five NCAA champions are expected to return to defend their crowns. Spencer Lee, Nick Suriano, Yianni Diakomihalis, Mekhi Lewis, and Zahid Valencia are all eligible to return and seek another title in Minneapolis. If I set an over-under line at 3 champions out of that group where would you lay your money? Two decades of history would tell you to put it on the under. 

During the last five years returning champions have repeated right at 61%, 20 repeat champions out of 33 returning champions. That seemed like a low percentage to me, but that five-year span was by far the best percentage in the last two decades.

The percentage at the beginning of the millennium was a stunning 33%. It’s hard to believe that only one in three returning champions was able to successfully repeat. In the timespan between 2000-2004 a lot of champions ultimately won a second or third title, but the took a loss in between championships. Travis Lee, Greg Jones, Jake Rosholt, Teyon Ware, Ryan Bertin, and Tommy Rowlands all fell into this scenario in the early 2000s.

Some of you might be thinking: “What about Mark Hall, Vincenzo Joseph, and Seth Gross? They are champions that could return next year.” That is true, but I kept the data to only returning champions, and did not include former champions. A strange scenario played out at 184lbs between 2007 and 2009. Jake Herbert won the title in 2007 and 2009 with Mike Pucillo winning in 2008. Herbert took a redshirt during 2008 so he was not counted in the returning data for 2008. When Herbert defeated Pucillo for the 2009 title he skewed the data just a bit. This also happened with Mocco in 2004, and Burroughs in 2010 due to injury as they missed seasons just after their title. 

Many people believe high school wrestlers are coming into college more prepared than ever before. The data here supports that notion as the number of underclassmen champions has skyrocketed. There were 17 underclassman champions between 2000-2009. That number more than doubled this past decade to 35. 

I keep flip-flopping in my head when trying to predict the future trend for returning champions. On one side, I think there will be more opportunities with the underclassmen being more prepared and winning more titles. That also plays into the counterpoint that it will continue to get more difficult to repeat as a champion with the new talent reloading every single year.