Vegas, baby. The U.S. Open is coming up at the end of this month as some of the best senior level wrestlers in this country converge on Las Vegas.

While the World Team Trials format has changed slightly with the introduction of Final X, the end goal is still the same: win the Open and earn a bye so making the world team is easier. The United States had seven medalists in men's freestyle at last year's world championships, so there will be at least three byes to Final X on the line in Nevada.

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Now, if any one of those medalists decide to change weights, they will forfeit their bye to Final X. For example, if Kyle Dake drops down to 74kg, it means he will decline his berth to automatically appear in Final X: Rutgers as the defending 79kg world champ. So, who should wrestle in the Open?

What we're taking into account here is the ability to get a bye to Final X and avoid having to wrestle in World Team Trials, as well as guys who aren't qualified for the Trials already. Just because we think they should wrestle in Vegas doesn't mean they will. Registration is publicly available in FloArena.

57kg

Thomas Gilman

Daton Fix

Spencer Lee

All three of those guys are already qualified for WTT in Raleigh, so none are required to compete in a couple weeks. However, with no one sitting in Final X, the U.S. Open will automatically earn a trip to Final X - Lincoln. Lee has not wrestled any freestyle the past two summers, so it's possible we don't see him again.

Gilman hasn't wrestled in the Open since he was a junior in 2013, having skipped it in 2017 and made the run all the way through the challenge tournament to earn his world team spot. Then last year as a world silver he had the bye to Final X. For Gilman, the math is simple: would you rather have two tries at making Final X (the Open and Trials) but potentially wrestle more matches and face more weigh-ins? Or do you trust that you can make it to Final X: Lincoln by only wrestling in the Trials, but risking a loss to one of those young upstarts?

Knowing Daton, it'd be pretty surprising if he didn't show up in Vegas, even though he's already qualified for Raleigh because he was on the Junior world team last year. He lost in two straight matches to Gilman in last year's Final X: Lincoln, so I'm sure he'd like another crack at the Hawkeye.

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61kg

Nathan Tomasello

We're still not sure on a couple things at 61kg. First, will Joe Colon accept his berth to Final X: Lincoln? That would mean he's not going up or down to an Olympic weight this year. Second, since Nahshon Garrett actually won the world team spot but could not compete in Budapest due to an injury, is he automatically qualified for the Trials?

The third pertains to the man we listed, NaTo. Is he going 57kg or 61kg? Sounds like he's healthy again and isn't qualified for WTT, so to make a world team he's going to have to wrestle in Vegas. I have him listed at 61, but he hasn't registered so there's a possibility he ends up going 57.

65kg

Jordan Oliver

Zain Retherford

Yianni Diakomihalis

Joey McKenna

Jaydin Eierman

Talk about a crowded weight. No one is sitting at Final X, so there's good reason to believe guys like Logan Stieber and Frank Molinaro, who are already qualified for WTT, will be wrestling at the Open. Yianni is also qualified, but since he has another year of Junior eligibility remaining, it makes the most sense to see how he does at the Open, then decide to focus on just Juniors in Raleigh or perhaps split duties like Gable Steveson did last year.

The other four though aren't qualified and will have to go to the Open (or the Northeast Regional) to get a shot at Final X and the Trials. The Oliver saga is well documented: winning the Open in 2017, which was later vacated, and resulted in him having to miss the entire 2018 Trials and Final X process. Since then though, he's beaten Olympic gold medalist Togrul Asgarov, 2017 world team member Zain Retherford, and made the finals of the Dan Kolov ranking series event.

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Retherford took last summer off after graduating from Penn State. He was 0-1 at the Yarygin, losing to two-time world silver Gadzhimurad Rashidov, and then went 4-0 at the World Cup, but didn't pick up any super high profile wins there. McKenna won the Open last year, getting the bye to Final X, but could he take the spring off similar to Zain last year?

McKenna beat Jaydin Eierman in the Open finals last year, with Eierman ultimately finishing third on the ladder to make his first national team. Having already committed to taking an Olympic Redshirt, it would be very odd if the Missouri Tiger didn't show up to wrestle in Vegas.

70kg

James Green

Jason Chamberlain

Just like Gilman, Green made the world finals in 2017, affording him a direct spot in last year's version of Final X: Lincoln. This past year though, he did not earn a medal, so although he is qualified for the Trials, it would make sense for him to wrestle in Vegas to try to get the bye.

Two guy who are slated to wrestle 65kg in Vegas but may decide to stay up at 70kg are Oliver and Molinaro. I think it makes sense for both to be at the lower Olympic weight, but there's always a chance they don't make the cut. Molinaro was on the national team last year at 70kg and has not made 65 flat on a same day weigh-in yet.

Chamberlain was last year's Open champ at this weight and beat Molinaro three out of four matches a year ago. He lost to Green in two matches at Final X, and is not yet qualified for Raleigh.

74kg

Kyle Dake

Probably wishful thinking. Jordan Burroughs is already in Final X, we're just waiting on official word that he's accepted the spot. Dake's already qualified for WTT and has only wrestled in the Open one time at 74kg: in 2017, when Burroughs wasn't sitting in the Trials finals after failing to win a medal at the Olympics.

In 2013, he went straight to the Trials after winning NCAAs. He didn't wrestle in 2014, and in 2015 he qualified for the Trials by winning the Northeast Regional. Dake did wrestle in the pseudo-Open they did in December of 2015, but that one did not afford a direct bye to the Olympic Trials finals and was his first domestic competition up at 86kg, so that's a bit of an outlier. Last year he beat Alex Dieringer in the Open finals to earn his spot to Final X: State College.

There's little incentive for Dake to wrestle, other than to test his body out back down at 74 ahead of the Trials. But he might just opt for fewer matches and fewer weigh-ins and take his chances in May.

79kg

Zahid Valencia

Alex Dieringer

Mark Hall

The 79kg guys are in a bit of a pickle. First, they have to figure out if Dake is dropping down this year or next year. Then, regardless of what Dake is doing, they need to do their own calculations of what weight they'd like to be in the Olympic year. Valencia and Hall are both qualified for Olympic Redshirts, so they could take this spring and summer off to bulk up or slim down while weighing whether or not to wrestle next college season.

Dieringer is almost definitely too big for 74 at this point and is a power wrestler, so will probably fare better not having to cut weight anyway. If Dake drops, the opportunity to make a world team and win a medal is extremely tempting, both in terms of what it can do for your career monetarily as well as the potential of non-Olympic medalists getting a boost in next year's Trials process. Alli Ragan posted on twitter that, for the girls next year, non-Olympic weight medalists sit in the challenge tournament finals, meaning they would only have to beat one person to get in the OTT finals. If the men follow suit, it makes it far easier for Ringer to stay at 79 this year.

That would make it a bit more palatable for Valencia and Hall to stay at 79, a well. Honestly it would for Dake too, but he's probably got to do everything he can to try to keep Burroughs out of the Olympic Trials finals. Ringer and Hall aren't qualified for Trials, so they'd have to go to the Open, but Penn State may opt for Hall to do the Dake in 15 route and wrestle close to home at the Northeast Regional. No matter what though, if Dake drops a spot in Final X will be at stake.

86kg

Nick Heflin

With J'den Cox staying up at 92 this year, the list of challengers for David Taylor is rather thin. It was nearly two years ago at this point, but Nick Heflin was up 8-4 in Taylor at the break at the 2017 Trials. After that though, it seemed unlikely Heflin would be able to make 86 same day, and Taylor has obviously turned in the most dominating 2+ year stretch in the world.

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92kg

Hayden Zillmer

The last three weights all have the same rationale: the wrestler who lost in Final X is not yet qualified for the Trials. Zillmer had three close matches with Cox last year, so he'll likely be the one once again pushing the world champ this June.

97kg

Kyven Gadson

Similar to Tyler Berger's win over Jason Nolf in FloNationals, we are legally obligated to mention Gadson's pin of Kyle Snyder in the 2015 NCAA finals. He also had that sweet double last year where he literally shot Snyder off the stage in Lincoln. In all seriousness though, Kyven's a pro and we should all be thankful he's in this for the long haul, pushing the starter and trying to win world titles of his own. Whether Gadson ever beats Snyder again or not, the only way America is going to catch and surpass Russia is by having depth at every single weight.

125kg

Adam Coon

With the addition of Greco to Final X this year, Coon becomes immensely intriguing. USA Wrestling wisely split up the heavyweight divisions, so Coon can try to make the team in both styles if he so chooses. As a world silver in Greco, he can have a bye directly to Final X: Lincoln if he accepts the berth, but would need to go to the Open and wrestle freestyle to give him another shot at Nick Gwiazdowki's 125kg spot in Rutgers.