Looking for a sleeper finalist? We all need that guy one guy in our fantasy draft or pick’em contest to blow it open for us by making the finals from a low seed. If you like to follow historical trends you should be able to pinpoint your guy after reading.

This data set tracks the lowest seeded finalist for the past 20 NCAA Championships. If anyone made the finals from a seed of ten or higher they were also included in the table, but not the competition data that tracked the path to the finals for the lowest seeded guy each year to make the finals. The extra finalists that were a ten seed or higher also were not included in the table that tracked the frequency of each seed making the finals as it only looked at the highest seed for each year. The 8th and 11th seeds hit with the most frequency when you included the extra guys in the data set.

When I thought this article through in my head, I pictured several surprise finalists in my head and the bracket had always blown up on that side. Often the finalist didn’t have to get through the top seeds on their side as other guys did the heavy lifting for them. This didn’t turn out to be the case in the majority of the brackets. Just over half of the time (11/20) the low seeded finalist defeated the number one or two seed en route to the finals. 

Let’s take a look at each wrestlers story, maybe you can make a connection or two to someone in the field this year.

1999

Tony Davis, Northern Iowa, 149, 6th Seed, 2nd

Path:

(US) Stan Spoor, Clarion, dec 5-4

(11) Ryan Bernholz, Lehigh, md 11-2

(US) Marc Hoffer, American, dec 11-5

(7) Adam Tirapelle, Illinois, dec 8-3

(1) TJ Williams, Iowa, loss dec 5-3

Average Opponent Seed En Route To The Finals: 14.5

Tony Davis is one of the higher seeds to earn the distinction “lowest seed to make the finals” in a given year. Davis had the second highest path average in the last 20 years. This is a bit expected as Davis wrestled in the 12-seed era and earned such a high seed himself. The average seed Davis wrestled en route to the final was 14.5. A few upsets cleared the path for Davis to hit such low seeds as he made his way through the bottom bracket. Adam Tirapelle (Illinois) knocked off the second seed, Reggie Wright (OK ST.), in th bottom quarterfinal to set up the match with Davis in the semifinal. Tirapelle proved this to be no fluke as he defeated Wright a second time for third place. Marc Hoffer (American) was unseed, but advanced out to the quarterfinal when he defeated third seeded Oscar Wood. An interesting note about Davis’ tournament is that he wrestled high school teammate, TJ Williams, in the finals.

Stan Greene (Fresno State) was a twelfth seed that was a near miss at 133 pounds. Greene made his way to the semifinals where he was stopped by three-time champion Eric Guerrero (OK ST) 1-0.

2000

Steve Garland, Virginia, 125, 8th Seed, 2nd

Carl Perry, Illinois, 141, 8th Seed, 1st

Path:

(US) Adrian Tramutola, Tennessee-Chattanooga, md 8-0

(9) Michael Kawamura, Arizona State, dec 7-3

(1) Jody Strittmatter, Iowa, dec 9-7 OT

(US) TJ Hill, Cal State-Fullerton, dec 6-5 TB

(2) Jeremy Hunter, Penn State, loss dec 7-3

Average Opponent Seed En Route To The Finals: 12.5

(US) PJ Bory, Virginia, tf 18-2

(US) Jeremy Hart, Appalachian State, dec 9-7

(1) Doug Schwab, Iowa, dec 7-5

(4) Mark Angle, Clarion, dec 2-0

(2) Michael Lightner, Oklahoma, dec 5-3

Average Opponent Seed En Route To The Finals: 11.25

Both Perry and Garland advanced to the NCAA finals out of the number eight seed at the 2000 Championships. Garland took a slightly easier path according to seed, but don’t be fooled by Garland’s unseeded semifinal opponent TJ Hill (Cal-State Fullerton). Hill was the real deal as he pressed Garland to overtime tie breaker and ultimately finished fourth. If you followed wrestling closely at that time, you know how well respected Hill was as a wrestler at the time. The signature win for Garland was a quarterfinal win over number one seed, Jody Strittmatter. Strittmatter was coming off a breakthrough performance at Big Ten’s where he defeated eventual National Champion Jeremy Hunter (Penn State). Garland would drop the title bout to Hunter, 7-3

Carl Perry made an improbable run to an NCAA Championship as he knocked off the returning 1st, 2nd, and 3rd place finishers from 1999 out of the eight seed. The only “break” Perry got in his path was the first round upset of ninth seed Sean Gray (Virginia Tech). To consecutively take out Schwab, Angle, and Lightner was amazing.

2001

Pat Quirk, Illinois, 197, 8th Seed, 2nd

Path:

(US) Dave Shunamon, Edinboro, dec 5-2

(US) Jason Payne, Northern Iowa, md 14-6

(2) Brad Vering, Nebraska, dec 8-4

(11) Mike Fickell, Pennsylvania, dec 8-4

(1) Mark Munoz, Oklahoma State, loss dec 5-3

Average Opponent Seed En Route To The Finals: 13.25

Pat Quirk did some of the heavy lifting himself and had some help. The major win for Quirk was over second seed, Brad Vering (Nebraska), in the quarterfinals. It was an 8-4 decision for Quirk to place him in the semi. An almost equally impressive win that doesn’t register when you look at seeds, is the opening round victory over Dave Shunamon (Edinboro). Shunamon ran off five straight wins to all-american and finish sixth. Zach Thompson (Iowa State) was the third seed at 197 pounds. Rick Romero (Rutgers) took out Thompson first round, which led to a semifinal appearance by Mike Fickell (Pennsylvania) when he upended Romero in the quarterfinal.

2002

Rob Rohn, Lehigh, 184, 8th Seed, 1st

Path:

(US) Blake Kaplan, Ohio State, dec 8-4

(US) Josh Millard, Lock Haven, fall 0:25

(US) Ralph DeNisco, Wisconsin, fall 3:19

(4) Jessman Smith, Iowa, fall 2:57

(6) Josh Lambrecht, Oklahoma, fall 6:47

Average Opponent Seed En Route To The Finals: 16

Rob Rohn will always be remembered for the konkrete special he used to pin Josh Lambrecht while trailing by an insurmountable amount of points in the third period. It is worth noting if you watch the final today you will be left wondering how Lambrecht earned so many sets of nearfall off the same cross-wrist without changing holds. Anyway, what no one remembers is how the bracket opened up for Rohn as he seized his moment. Scott Justus (Virginia Tech) earned the number one seed via an early season win over Damion Hahn in a dual. Justus dropped his first round match before finishing 1-2. The early round loss cleared the way for Rohn to run to the semifinals without hitting a seeded wrestler. Rohn’s average opponent seed was the second highest total in the twenty year data set.

2003

Carl Fronhofer, Pitt, 174, Unseeded, 2nd 

Path:

(9) Blake Kaplan, Ohio State, fall 4:46

(US) Curtis Yeager, Millersville, md 11-3

(8) Brian Glynn, Illinois, dec 3-2tb

(US) Ralph Everett, Hofstra, dec 4-1

(12) Shane Webster, Oregon, dec 3-2

(3) Robbie Waller, Oklahoma, loss dec 7-2

Average Opponent Seed En Route To The Finals: 15.125

For the second year in a row an eight seed was the highest seed to make the finals. The similarities don’t stop there. Blake Kaplan (Ohio State) fell in the opening round to both Rob Rohn and Carl Fronhofer. We’re not done….. The number one seed from the EWL again fell in the first round as Greg Jones was knocked off by Ralph Everett (Hofstra). This time is was Carl Fronhofer seizing the moment and riding his hot hand to the finals.

2004

Ryan Fulsaas, Iowa, 197, 10th Seed, 2nd

Path:

Bye

(7) Chris Jones, Drexel, dec 3-1

(2) Chris Skretkowicz, Hofstra, dec 7-6

(3) Sean Stender, Northern Iowa, dec 8-7

(1) Damion Hahn, Minnesota, loss dec 6-2

Average Opponent Seed En Route To The Finals: 8

Ryan Fulsaas had the statistically toughest path to the finals that he could of possibly had from the tenth seed. Fulsaas competed under the old conference wild card system that led to unbalanced brackets as the 330 wrestlers were distributed unevenly and received an opening round bye. His side of the bracket went to chalk around him in the bracket. That force him to beat the 7th, 2nd, and 3rd seed to make the final. His cinderella run was extinguished by Damion Hahn in the finals, but what a tournament for Fulsaas.

2005

Joe Johnston, Iowa, 157, 8th Seed, 2nd

Path:

(US) Kevin Ward, Oklahoma State, md 18-8

(US) CP Schlatter, Minnesota, dec 5-3

(1) Alex Tirapelle, Illinois, dec 6-5

(5) Jake Percival, Ohio, dec 9-8

(2) Ryan Bertin, Michigan, loss dec 8-5

Average Opponent Seed En Route To The Finals: 11.5

Joe Johnston had a tough path to the finals in 2005 having to beat the number one seed and the number five seed. Here is where the path shows to be tougher than the numbers. The two victories over unseeded wrestlers could be ho-hum until you read the names. Kevin Ward (OK ST) and CP Schlatter (Minnesota) were those unseeded wrestlers that Johnston took out in the round of 32 and round of 16.  When you add in the wins over Tirapelle and Percival, Johnston had an incredible tournament that ended in a runner-up finish.

2006

Brian Stith, Arizona State, 157, 10th Seed, 2nd

Path:

(US) Jacob Yost, Tennessee-Chattanooga, dec 7-1 

(US) Tony Hook, Oregon State, dec 2-1TB

(US) Andrew Flanagan, Harvard, md 8-0

(11) Derek Zinck, Lehigh, dec 5-3

(5) Ben Cherrington, Boise State, loss dec 7-3

Average Opponent Seed En Route To The Finals: 17.75

Ryan Fulsaas had one of the statistically toughest runs to the finals out of the ten seed just two years prior. The 157 pound bracket around ten seed Brian Stith fell apart and he had the statistically easiest path to the final of anyone in the last twenty years. Big names fell just a round short of meeting up with Stith as seventh seed Dustin Manotti (Cornell), second seed CP Schlatter (Minnesota), and third seed Alex Tirapelle (Illinois) fell in consecutive rounds to clear the path for Stith. Joe Johnston (Iowa) almost pulled the trick again out of the ninth seed this time, but fell to the eventual champion Ben Cherrington (Boise State) in the semifinals.

2007

Kurt Backes, Iowa State, 197, 9th Seed, 2nd

Path:

(US) Jacob Bryce, North Dakota State, md 16-4

(8) Joel Flaggert, Oklahoma, dec 3-1OT

(US) Nick Roy, Rutgers, dec 5-3

(4) Phil Davis, Penn State, dec 5-4

(2) Josh Glenn, American, loss dec 6-4

Average Opponent Seed En Route To The Finals: 13

Kurt Backes could have been in the mix for toughest statistical road to the finals for the finalist in the 20-year data set. Instead, he fell into the middle of the pack as freshman, number one seed, Max Askren (Missouri) was defeated in the opening round clearing a path for Backes in the top quarter. The seeded wrestlers Backes defeated were conference rival Joel Flaggert (Oklahoma) and future national champion Phil Davis (Penn State).

2008

Jordan Leen, Cornell, 157, 8th Seed, 1st

Path:

(US) Ryan Hluschak, Drexel, dec 4-3

(US) Brian Letters, Maryland, dec 4-1

(1) Gregor Gillespie, Edinboro, dec 8-6

(12) Josh Zupancic, Stanford, dec 9-2

(2) Michael Poeta, Illinois, dec 5-4

Average Opponent Seed En Route To The Finals: 13.25

Jordan Leen entered the 2007 tournament as the fourth seed at 149 pounds. He was upended by the fifth seed that went on to win the national championship. That fifth seed was Gregor Gillespie (Edinboro). Leen turned the tables up a weight class as he defeated the number one seed, Gillespie, en route to the finals. 

2009

Jarrod King, Edinboro, 165, 12th Seed, 1st 

Path:

(US) Rex Kendle, Michigan State, fall 1:04

(US) Nick Amuchastegui, Stanford, dec 5-1

(4) Moza Fay, Northern Iowa, dec 12-5

(8) Jonathan Reeder, Iowa State, 6-6TB

(2) Andrew Howe, Wisconsin, dec 3-2

Average Opponent Seed En Route To The Finals: 13

Jarrod King was the last guy to get seeded at 165 pounds in the old system that went away in 2014. That didn’t stop him from winning a national title. While it looks like the path cleared for King the future credentials are impressive for King’s opponents. Nick Amuchastegui (Stanford) was unseed in 2009, but would make back to back finals in 2011 and 2012. Mack Lewnes was the top seed, but was upset in round one. The eight seed that capitalized there was Jon Reeder (Iowa State). He defeated Amuchastegui in the 2011 final. While King’s path statistically looks middle of the road, it was pretty tough.

2010

Chase Pami, Cal Poly, 157, 7th Seed, 2nd

Path:

(US) Kurt Kinser, Indiana, dec 3-2

(10) Shane Vernon, Oklahoma, dec 7-5

(2) Adam Hall, Boise State, dec 5-2

(US) Justin Lister, Binghamton, md 13-5

(1) JP O’Connor, Harvard, loss dec 6-4 

Average Opponent Seed En Route To The Finals: 13

Chase Pami had a difficult draw as the seven seed at 157 pounds. The path often lays out with the tenth seed, second seed and third seed all standing in the way. Pami had to get through the first two hurdles before knocking off bracket buster Justin Lister (Binghamton) in the semifinal. Pami’s quarterfinal was a special one as he avenged a PAC-10 conference loss when he defeated Adam Hall (Boise State) 5-2.

2011

Quentin Wright, Penn State, 184, 9th Seed, 1st

Path:

(US) Jon Fausey, Virginia, dec 8-4

(8) Kevin Steinhaus, Minnesota, dec 8-4

(1) Chris Honeycutt, Edinboro, dec 7-3

(12) Grant Gambrall, Iowa, fall 3:53

(2) Robert Hamlin, Lehigh, dec 5-2

Average Opponent Seed En Route To The Finals: 10.25

Quentin Wright entered the NCAA Championships with a ton of question marks surrounding him and no one in his path was happy to see him placed as the ninth seed. Wright had been injured in December and hadn’t quite returned to form before the NCAA Championships. Wright took the top quarter defeating both the eight and one seeds before his semifinal led to a signature moment for the Nittany Lions. While it didn’t clinch the team title for the Nittany Lions, Wright’s fall over Grant Gambrall (Iowa) is the moment from Philadelphia that many Penn State fans associate with the team championship.

2012

Brandon Hatchett, Lehigh, 165, 11th Seed, 2nd

Path:

(US) James Brundage, Rider, md 10-0

(US) Dallas Bailey, Oklahoma State, dec 4-2

(3) Andrew Sorenson, Iowa State, dec 7-3

(7) Josh Asper, Maryland, dec 5-4

(1) David Taylor, Penn State, loss tf 22-7

Average Opponent Seed En Route To The Finals: 12.5

The battle to face David Taylor was won by Lehigh’s Brandon Hatchett. It is a position everyone wants to be in, and at the same time no one wants to be in. Hatchett earned the right by knocking off two seeded wrestlers en route to the final. Hatchett took out number three seed Andrew Sorenson (Iowa State) in the quarterfinal, but didn’t have to worry about the second seed. Josh Asper (Maryland) took care of Shane Onufer (Wyoming) in the quarterfinal. Onufer had defeated Asper in 2011 for fifth place. Hatchett outlasted the Asperator, 5-4, to earn the unenviable task of taking on Taylor in the final.

2013

Michael McMullen, Northwestern, 285, 5th Seed, 2nd

Path:

(US) Dan Scherer, Stanford, dec 6-2

(12) Adam Chalfant, Indiana, dec 7-5

(4) Chad Hanke, Oregon State, dec 5-3

(1) Dom Bradley, Missouri, dec 3-1OT

(2) Anthony Nelson, Minnesota, loss dec 6-2

Average Opponent Seed En Route To The Finals: 9.25

Michael McMullen couldn’t have had a tough route to the finals from the five seed. His half of the bracket went to chalk and he had to defeat the 12th, 4th and 1st seeded wrestlers to reach the final opposite of 2nd seed Tony Nelson. McMullen Needed overtime to knock off top seeded Dom Bradley to become the highest seeded wrestler in the finals. 2013 was a strange year without many top-end upsets. Six championship bouts had the top two seeds battling for the title.

2014

Joshua Kindig, Oklahoma State, 149, 11th Seed, 2nd

Path:

(US) Ian Paddock, Ohio State, dec 9-4

(6) Jake Sueflohn, Nebraska, dec 7-5

(14) Scott Sakaguchi, Oregon State, dec 7-5

(15) Mitch Minotti, Lehigh, dec 5-2

(5) Jason Tsirtsis, Northwestern, loss dec 3-1OT

Average Opponent Seed En Route To The Finals: 13.75

The bottom bracket at 149 pounds blew up early in Oklahoma City. Nick Dardanes was the second seed and dropped his first round match to Matthew Frisch (Citadel) 8-5. The very next round third seed, Chris Villalonga (Cornell) was pinned by Scott Sakaguchi (Oregon State). Once Kindig cleared his round of 16 bout against Jake Sueflohn (Nebraska), he was the odds-on favorite on the bottom half.  Kindig made good on those odds and moved to the finals from the eleventh seed.

2015

Zeke Moisey, West Virginia, 125, Unseeded, 2nd

Path:

(15) Chasen Tolbert, Utah Valley, md 14-6

(2) Nahshon Garrett, Cornell, dec 5-2

(7) Edward Klimara, Oklahoma State, dec 5-2

(6) Thomas Gilman, Iowa, fall 0:52

(4) Nathan Tomasello, Ohio State, loss dec 9-5

Average Opponent Seed En Route To The Finals: 7.5

In 2014 the seeding committee expanded the seeds to 16 wrestlers from 12. Zeke Moisey still wasn’t able to earn a seed heading into the 2015 Championships. His resume was deemed to be bottom half of the field. He didn’t let that bother him as he ran through the statistically toughest path of anyone in the last twenty years. The early upset of Chasen Tolbert (Utah Valley) didn’t garner too much attention, but the win over Nahshon Garrett (Cornell) the next round did. Even with the weight class on notice no one could stop Moisey. Moisey’s fall in the semifinals over Thomas Gilman (Iowa) sent the Scottrade Center into a frenzy that produced the loudest crowd noise I’ve ever heard in my life. Moisey came up just short in the final, but as many people today talk about Moisey’s run as they do about Tomasello’s championship.

2016

Bryce Meredith, Wyoming, 141, 14th, 2nd

Path:

(US) Robert Mathers, Arizona State, md 16-3

(3) Kevin Jack, NC State, dec 5-4

(6) Micah Jordan, Ohio State, dec 5-2

(2) Joey McKenna, Stanford, dec 5-3

(1) Dean Heil, Oklahoma State, loss dec 3-2

Average Opponent Seed En Route To The Finals: 7.75

Meredith checked in with the second best score in the past twenty years when averaging the opponents seed. Storylines in the Meredith run were plentiful too. The most intriguing was his round of 16 matchup with returning all-american and three seed, Kevin Jack (NC ST). Meredith had just transferred to Wyoming from NC State and the foes were plenty familiar with each other. This would grow into one of the best rivalries in college wrestling in the coming years. The next year Meredith narrowly missed the recognition two years in a row as he was upended in the semifinals as the number 10 seed.

2017

Ethan Lizak, Minnesota, 125, 6th, 2nd

George DiCamillo, Virginia, 141, 6th, 2nd

Path:

(US) Christian Moody, Oklahoma, dec 10-8

(11) Josh Terao, American, md 15-6

(14) Freddie Rodriguez, SIUE, tf 15-0

(10) Jack Mueller, Virginia, dec 7-0

(4) Darian Cruz, Lehigh, loss dec 6-3

Average Opponent Seed En Route To The Finals: 13.75

(US) Christopher Carton, Iowa, md 13-4

(11) Randy Cruz, Lehigh, fall 4:36

(14) Thomas Thorn, Minnesota, dec 5-2

(10) Bryce Meredith, Wyoming, dec 10-7

(1) Dean Heil, Oklahoma State, loss dec 6-3

Average Opponent Seed En Route To The Finals: 13.75

In 2017 there were very few top-end upsets. Both Ethan Lizak and George DiCamillo were the lowest seeds to reach the final from the six seed. The strange anomaly here was the path that both Lizak and DiCamillo went through to reach the final. Big upsets happen to lay the weird path of 11, 14, 10 in front of the number six seed. 

2018

Ronnie Perry, Lock Haven, 149, 15th, 2nd

Path:

(US) Cortlandt Schuyler, Lehigh, md 11-3

(2) Brandon Sorensen, Iowa, dec 3-2

(10) Jason Tsirtsis, Arizona State, dec 7-4

(11) Matthew Kolodzik, Princeton, dec 5-3

(1) Zain Retherford, Penn State, loss dec 6-2

Average Opponent Seed En Route To The Finals: 10.75

Ronnie Perry was favored in one match according to the seeds at the 2018 Championships. That didn’t stop him from reaching the final opposite of Zain Retherford (Penn State). The signature win for Perry was over the second seed Brandon Sorensen (Iowa) that garnered a lot of press coming into the championships. Many felt Sorensen could cement his name  as the best guy to never win a title if he made the finals and again lost to Zain Retherford. 

With the 8th and 11th seeds showing up slightly more often you might want to look there for your surprise finalist. I think two good candidates are available at the first two weight classes. Vitali Arujau (Cornell) is the 8th seed at 125 pounds. The path isn’t ideal, but I don’t think there are too many people willing to completely dismiss Arujau as a finalist.

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Tariq Wilson (NC ST) finished third last year and pressed eventual champion Seth Gross (SD ST) into overtime in the semifinals. If he is healthy he could contend to be in the finals in a wild bracket at 133 pounds. 

Andrew Spey like the thought of Wilson being a finalist from the 11th seed.“Wilson needs to be in March 2018 form and get past Lizak, Suriano, and Micic, which isn’t likely, but is possible, especially if Micic is not 100%”

When pressed to find a long shot finalist Willie Saylor through out another wrestler that sits in the 11 seed, Louis Deprez (Binghamton). “Foster-Zavatsky-Rasheed is his path, and though he’s an underdog to all, it ain’t by much.”