2019 NCAA Championships

2019 NCAA Tournament Preview + Predictions: 197 Pounds

2019 NCAA Tournament Preview + Predictions: 197 Pounds

Previewing the 2019 NCAA tournament at 197 pounds, predicting all eight All-American finishes in Bo Nickal's final NCAA tournament.

Mar 18, 2019 by Wrestling Nomad
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The light heavyweights close out our previews for the 2019 NCAA Tournament. A weight that routinely produces surprises has been reduced to the Bo Nickal show this year.

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The light heavyweights close out our previews for the 2019 NCAA Tournament. A weight that routinely produces surprises has been reduced to the Bo Nickal show this year.

I made the case early on: the Hodge is Nickal's to lose. I also don't have a Hodge vote, but it seems pretty obvious to me he is the most dominant wrestler in the country this season. The Hodge stats will come in another article, so let's just focus on the tournament for now.

NCAA Brackets in FloArena

He's pinned the two seed, but hasn't faced anyone else in the top seven. That doesn't bother me one bit, I've got him scoring 27.5 team points in his final collegiate tournament. This will be the springboard to his senior level carer, where fellow three-time champs J'den Cox and Kyle Snyder await.

Kollin Moore has been No. 2 all season and has career finishes of third and fourth, with 32 career team points. He's on pace to be the next four-time All-American for Ohio State, which if things go to plan will be their fifth in a three-year span. Moore is set up to be the bridge from the Snyder/Jordan/Tomasello/McKenna era to the Sasso/Kerkvliet/Decatur/Hoffman era.

Weight Class Previews: 125 | 133 | 141 | 149 | 157 | 165 | 174 | 184

Preston Weigel has just eight matches against Division I opponents who aren't his teammates, but half of those are qualifiers, and he has big wins over AA threats Jacob Warner and Willie Miklus. I still think he should be the No. 4 seed behind Pat Brucki, but this preview is about how the bracket was actually drawn. Brucki avenged his only loss in the EIWA finals and appears to be on an upward trajectory since coming out of Carl Sandburg in Illinois.

Title Contenders

#1 Bo Nickal, Penn State

All-American Threats

#2 Kollin Moore, Ohio State

#3 Preston Weigel, Oklahoma State

#4 Pat Brucki, Princeton

#5 Jacob Warner, Iowa

#6 Willie Miklus, Iowa State

#7 Jay Aiello, Virginia

#8 Nathan Traxler, Stanford

#9 Ben Honis, Cornell

#10 Tom Sleigh, Virginia Tech

#13 Malik McDonald, NC State

#14 Eric Schultz, Nebraska

I'm ready for all your "disrespect" talk. Bring it, please. I'm sleeping on all of you. And you know what, if I'm the reason you place or win a national title, because I put you in a different tier in a preview, you're welcome.

If there is any weight in which the whole of the Top-16 seeds could be in consideration to place, it's this weight.

Session I

Matches to watch

Stephen Loiseau vs. Josh Hokit

Ben Honis vs. Jake Jakobsen

Rocco Caywood vs. Thomas Lane

Tanner Orndorff vs. Eric Schultz

Randall Diabe vs. Jake Woodley

Starting off with a good one between the 16 seed Hokit and the 17 seed Loiseau. They've never met in college, and should be a fun style clash. Loiseau is generally a scrambler who can get reversals and put guys in awkward situations, while Hokit doubles as a Fresno State football player with almost 1,000 career rushing yards.

I think Honis is going to outperform his seed and be an All-American, but this will be his third meeting with Jakobsen this season. A rivalry match between schools like Lehigh and Cornell is always worth mentioning in my book, though Jakobsen was not able to take Honis down in either match this season.

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Caywood is coming off a seventh-place finish at EIWAs and needed an at-large bid, but still wound up getting the No. 12 seed because of how ridiculous this weight is. Lane was the Pac-12 finalist and this is the second year in a row he's qualified for the big show. Caywood can just as easily get the same place he did at EIWAs in Pittsburgh, but he might also just be ripe for an upset.

Eric Schultz beat Tanner Orndorff in the Journeymen Classic to start the season, and teched him at University Nationals in 2017. Orndorff will have trouble fighting off Schultz's leg attacks, but the Husker is a classic hit-or-miss 197. He's held Nickal, Warner and Moore to two-point matches, but also has double-digit losses this season.

Randall Diabe beat Jake Woodley 5-3 in a dual in December, with both surrendering a takedown to each other. Diabe led 3-0 entering the third before Woodley tied it up with an escape and takedown of his own. But Diabe got out and also earned riding time. That was a different Woodley though, he was 13-8 and on the outside looking in for NCAA qualifying. Then he won eight of his last nine matches, finishing third at Big 12s to qualify outright.

Session II

The heartbreak round. Not quite as gut-wrenching as Friday night, but this is where cute first-round upsets turn into legitimate bracket busters and seniors on their last legs either bow out or continue the long slog through the backside to place.

Keeping with Honis, he's got Pac-12 champ and Southern Scuffle finalist Nathan Traxler in round two. They would have met on the backside at CKLV, but Honis med forfeited out of the tournament. Traxler is more comfortable in shootouts, while Honis prefers more controlled, lower-scoring matches.

Jay Aiello and Tom Sleigh are meant to wrestle a third time. Aiello took round one with a 9-1 major at CKLV, then Sleigh bounced back with a 7-3 win in the dual. Somehow they did not meet at the ACC tournament, so winner take all here.

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Based on his performance at Big 12s, and Schultz propensity to take losses, Preston Weigel and Oklahoma State fans should not sweat the second-round match too heavily. But Weigel has a history of keeping guys in matches and Schultz has shown this season to be able to hang with the best in the country. Every once in a while those types of matches are a recipe for upsets.

Session III

Nickal over Honis

Brucki over Warner

Weigel over Miklus

Moore over Sleigh

The good people over at 3D Wrestler Stats put out an Instagram post that broke my brain the other day. According to their stats, which I put a good deal of trust in, Bo Nickal has been in neutral 96 different times this season, the start of matches, after escapes, etc. He's taken his opponent down 90 of those times. Which not only means he ends basically every period on top, you also know with 100 percent certainty that he's always working for a pin. I think he techs Honis.

Brucki and Warner renew a longstanding rivalry from their days as preps in Illinois at the same time. Those frequently went the way of the Hawkeye, but that changed at Midlands last season. Aside from that match, I have general concerns about Warner because of how he's done at Midlands the past two years. Perhaps not a good way of judging someone, as his only other college tournament was Big Tens where he got third, but it's a worry for me. I also just saw Brucki control matches at EIWAs and didn't get to watch Warner live.

Preston Weigel, originally the master of the 6-0 win (escape, four-point nearfall, riding time) turned Willie Miklus four separate times in the Big 12 finals. This is not the guy who went 0-2 at NCAAs last year and missed more than half of this season. Weigel is at or close to 100 percent and turning at a rate that puts him among the best in the country at any weight. If anyone can beat Kollin Moore for the right to face Bo Nickal, it's the Cowboy.

Moore and Sleigh did not cross paths in two separate CKLVs, but there's not much reason for Buckeye fans to be concerned here. Sleigh is very much an AA threat, and could very well wind up rebounding in his blood-round match, but he has never shown himself to be on Moore's level. It would also be absurd poetic justice if this ridiculous weight went chalk into the semis.

Session IV

Nickal 11-2 over Brucki

Weigel 5-3 over Moore

When I was at the Dave Schultz in January, the NJRTC guys were saying Brucki is everyone's least favorite guy to wrestle at RTC practice, which is to say senior-level athletes are complimenting Brucki's talent and work ethic. They mentioned his size and that they feel he can create some matchup problems for Nickal. I do not share those sentiments, but he's being trained to believe he can beat someone of Nickal's caliber. I still think Bo majors him.

The first three times I looked at this bracket, I just picked Moore and didn't give it a second thought. And picking against multiple Buckeyes who head into NCAAs ranked No. 2 isn't really fun, considering they have clearly been the second-best program in the country these past four years. Consider who Moore has lost to though: guys who he can't overpower, who won't fall prey to his barrel roll, plus Weigel has the ability to get riding time. The 197 final has been all seniors two years in a row, and the trend continues on Saturday.

Session V

A truly fascinating consi quarter to me is Ben Honis against Jacob Warner. As I mentioned above, Warner has had some issues at Midlands that made me pause and think about how he will perform on the backside. I've also been pretty clear that this is the year he would take some lumps, which still means he places as a freshman, and then next year is when he makes the jump to title contender. Willie Miklus takes out ACC champ Malik McDonald on the other side.

Moore and Honis have wrestled four times in their careers, with two majors for Moore sandwiched around a couple decisions. I'm not sure Moore gets the major, but I think the eight-point wins are closer to their respective talent levels than the two-point ones.

Brucki versus Miklus is one I'm going to apply a cliche to: who wants it more? The Cyclone will have locked up four-time AA status by then, and is a sixth-year senior who has battled injuries his whole career. Does he have two more matches in him? I think he wins one of his last two—just not sure it's this one.

On to the placing matches. McDonald exceeds expectations with his conference title and podium finish to close out his career, but loses out to Honis. Miklus avenges his extremely goofy loss to Warner from the dual, and this time does not try to cradle the Hawkeye while he has a lead late. Moore majored Brucki twice last season, once in the dual and once at NCAAs. There's not much evidence to think Brucki will win this one, but will close the gap slightly.

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Session VI

Nickal 14-3 over Weigel

Since Cael Sanderson took over at Penn State, the Nittany Lions have had some of the most dominant wrestlers of not just this generation, but of all time. Nickal is right at the top in terms of being a "sure thing," perhaps only second to Zain last year and David Taylor's Hodge-winning sophomore and senior seasons.

Considering he pinned the guy who's been ranked second all year, it stands to reason he can major Weigel. Bratke said on a previous FRL Weigel's probably a little too much to be pinned and I agree. Nickal gets to 14 off a couple takedowns, two turns, an escape and riding time. Then, in a few days he will be awarded the Hodge, completing the prophecy.


Nomad's AA Picks

  1. Nickal
  2. Weigel
  3. Moore
  4. Brucki
  5. Miklus
  6. Warner
  7. Honis
  8. McDonald