Ohio State's 6-Point Plan To Beat Penn State

Ohio State's 6-Point Plan To Beat Penn State

Ohio State's got a chance to beat Penn State at St. John Arena tonight, but to do so, the Buckeyes will have to accomplish these six things.

Feb 8, 2019 by Wrestling Nomad
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It's been nearly four full years since Penn State has suffered a loss in a dual meet. The Nittany Lions carry a 55-match win streak into tonight's battle with Ohio State.

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It's been nearly four full years since Penn State has suffered a loss in a dual meet. The Nittany Lions carry a 55-match win streak into tonight's battle with Ohio State.

The Buckeyes have finished runner-up to PSU at the past two national tournaments and have lost three years in a row to them in duals. Even with Shakur Rasheed and Roman Bravo-Young not at 100 percent for this one, I still picked the away team to win.

But this isn't a dual preview. It's a look from the lens of the underdog at what they have to do to win. There's not much intrigue or value in explaining why the favorite is going to win, which has followed the same recipe the entirety of the Cael Sanderson era: bonus from their big dogs, plus a timely upset.

So let's take a look at the six keys to a Buckeye victory, something that is unlikely, but not out of reach. Penn State opened as a -2.5 point favorite.

1) Malik Heinselman Can't Shrink From The Spotlight

The Colorado native was recruited to Columbus because of his experience in big stages. He's wrestled in two Cadet Worlds and one Junior World Championship, plus Fargo finals, Who's #1 and the U.S. Open finals. Every major service doing previews has picked Heinselman, plus computer rating systems like WrestleStat and the Dual Impact Index, have the Buckeye true freshman winning. There is nationwide belief Heinselman can kick off the dual between #1 Penn State and #2 Ohio State with a win.

But Heinselman is less than 10 months removed from graduating high school, is still small for the weight and is making just his second appearance at St. John Arena. Not to mention, he's got a common opponent (Liam Cronin) loss to his Nittany Lion foe in Devin Schnupp. Although it will be the first bout of the night, all the pressure is on Heinselman to win, because Ohio State has to make it a 5-5 split to have a chance. Coming off an Edinboro Open title, he should be riding a confidence high.

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2) Luke Pletcher Has To Find His Offense

For as long as anyone can remember, Luke Pletcher has been a winner. A West Pennsylvania native, Pletcher won three PA state titles and two Super 32 belts while at Greater Latrobe. That's carried over into college, where he went 25-9 as a true freshman up at 141, before going 30-3 and finishing fourth last year.

But being a winner alone is not enough here. Whether he's wrestling a banged up Roman Bravo-Young or his backup Scott Stossel, the junior will have to keep his attack rate high. In 87 career matches, however, he's only picked up 16 bonus point wins, less than one every five bouts. This year in particular, he bonused eight of his first nine foes, but none since then. Pletcher mustering double digits, ending periods on top, getting turns and earning stalls to stretch Ohio State's lead to 7-0 is an absolute must.

3) Joey McKenna Must Wrestle

The two-time All-American is a senior leader for the Buckeyes. He's 35-2 during his time in Columbus and carries a #2 ranking into this dual. Over his past five matches, he's earned a pin, two techs and two majors, including an 18-3 shellacking of #7 Kanen Storr and steamrolling of #8 Tristan Moran 14-2.

But he missed both duals last weekend after being reported as "day-to-day" on Thursday. However, he was listed as the only probable starter in Ohio State's media notes, and posted this to Instagram (see below). Again, tOSU needs a 5-5 split to keep this one in reach, and McKenna barely beat Nick Lee last year. A backup would have difficulty holding Lee to a decision, let alone beating him. So McKenna's health is absolutely crucial.

4) Micah Jordan Puts On A Show

This will be the second-to-last home dual of the Mongoose's college career. We're not sure if he'll face #12 Brady Berge or Jarod Verkleeren, but that can't change his mindset. There's an extremely high chance this dual starts at 125, which means Jordan will be the last Buckeye favored until Myles Martin comes up at 184. So if momentum exists, Jordan will be Ohio State's last opportunity to earn some for about a half hour on Friday night.

Best case scenario for the Scarlet & Gray, they lead 10-0 as Jordan and Verkleeren shake hands. Again looking at the computers, both the Dual Impact Index and WrestleStat predict Jordan to win by major. He's put up bonus in 12 matches against Division I opponents this year that weren't his teammates, including a 14-4 major over Cole Martin who is ranked ahead of Berge. But he "only" beat Requir van der Merwe 10-4, who is ranked behind Berge.

5) Give Up No Bonus Points

Easier said than done, especially entering that three-headed monster of Jason Nolf, Vincenzo Joseph and Mark Hall that will come after 149. That triumvirate has wrestled 27 dual matches between them this season, getting bonus two-thirds of the time (10 pins, two techs and six majors).

Ke-Shawn Hayes has only been bonused four times in his college career, but two have come against Penn State. Te'Shan Campbell was majored by Cenzo last year, but gave a stalling point, a hands to the face and a takedown with less than 15 seconds remaining. Ethan Smith lost to Myles Amine 3-2, the same Amine who a week later Mark Hall only beat 3-2. It's within the realm of possibility they don't give up bonus at these three weights, and the best case scenario for the home team has it 14-9 heading into 184.

6) Myles Martin Slams The Door

With the graduation of Kyle Snyder and Nathan Tomasello last year, that leaves Myles Martin as the only national champ on the Buckeye roster, and their only returning NCAA finalist. He's pushing to be a Hodge finalist with a 77 percent bonus rate, only having decisions against top five opponents. With Bo Nickal now up at 197, there seems to be nothing standing in his way of closing out his career with an undefeated season and a second title.

Even before the season, Shakur Rasheed was viewed as maybe the only realistic threat to Martin. But he missed three straight duals, and looked less than full capacity against Michigan. There's a chance Mason Manville or Franny Bisono is sent out instead of Rasheed tonight. Either way, Martin will have to get Ohio State to 18 or more team points to basically put it out of reach. You don't want to leave open the possibility that Bo Nickal can get a pin to set Anthony Cassar up for the win, which is in play even against #2 ranked and undefeated Bo Nickal.

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A lot has gone right during PSU's winning streak, some of it luck but much of it the team's own doing. It would be virtually impossible to pick Ohio State to win if the Nittany Lions were fully healthy, but they aren't, and they're away from Rec Hall, which no doubt played into their narrow 19-18 win last year.

Every match of tonight's dual on the Big Ten Network is must watch. Starting at 8:30 p.m. ET, the first four bouts will go a long way in determining the victor, as evidenced by points 1-4 above. If the Buckeyes aren't ahead by a score in the teens going into 157, they're in trouble.