Hodge Rankings Entering First Weekend In February
Hodge Rankings Entering First Weekend In February
FloWrestling's third official Hodge rankings: Jason Nolf or Bo Nickal at the top?
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As we enter February, we're in the home stretch of the college wrestling season. Which means everyone is ramping up for NCAAs, and the Hodge discussions are in full effect.
Unsurprisingly, Penn State is still dominating the Hodge rankings, but the only real question is who the voters prefer: Bo Nickal or Jason Nolf. Before we go any further, here once again are the criteria for wrestling’s version of the Heisman Trophy:
- Record
- Number of pins
- Dominance
- Past credentials
- Quality of competition
- Sportsmanship/citizenship
- Heart
In my writing here and going forward, I'm going to tell you how I'm looking at these criteria. They both have 11 pins, with Nickal having wrestled one fewer match. Their dominance scores are nearly identical, with Nickal at 5.29 and Nolf at 5.28. Dominance score treats each match like a dual meet, so six for a pin, five for a tech, etc. However, Nickal has a decided lead in average time spent on the mat, ending matches in 3:42 on average while Nolf goes to 4:27.
We'll get into the advanced stats later, courtesy of the man they know as LemonPie. Below are the basic stats of dominance score and bonus rate.
Rank | Name | School | Bonus | Dominance |
1 | Bo Nickal | Penn State | 94.12% | 5.29 |
2 | Jason Nolf | Penn State | 94.44% | 5.28 |
3 | Vincenzo Joseph | Penn State | 81.25% | 5.13 |
4 | Mark Hall | Penn State | 50% | 4 |
5 | Myles Martin | Ohio State | 81.82% | 4.45 |
6 | Yianni Diakomihalis | Cornell | 84.62% | 4.85 |
7 | Stevan Micic | Michigan | 77.78% | 4.44 |
8 | Anthony Ashnault | Rutgers | 70.59% | 4.71 |
9 | Sebastian Rivera | Northwestern | 66.67% | 4.44 |
10 | Gable Steveson | Minnesota | 58.33% | 4.23 |
1) Bo Nickal, Penn State: 17-0, 11 Pins
Last time out, I basically implied the Hodge was Nickal's to lose. I still believe that, but he and Nolf are now neck-and-neck. LemonPie put out this great tweet breaking down Nickal vs Nolf stats against ranked guys. Nickal holds the lead in average time spent on the mat against ranked guys (4:20 vs 6:05) and has a better takedown efficiency score, which basically rates how well you hold opponents down and turn them when you get a takedown.
Nickal holds an overall advantage in point differential per seven minutes and takedown efficiency score, but Nolf has a better point differential and dominance score against ranked opponents. Nickal has only given up one takedown/reversal this year, while Nolf has given up six. However, Nickal's closest match was two points against #11 Eric Schultz, while Nolf's closest was six points against #2 Tyler Berger.
Loiseau removed pic.twitter.com/exjKzl4gar
— Brian Jones (@LemonsAndPie) January 30, 2019
2) Jason Nolf, Penn State: 18-0, 11 Pins
Nolf, next topic. One of the great things about this Hodge race is that there is a certain level of preference to the styles each of the top two candidates wrestle. Nickal is more partial to trying to take you down and pin you right away, while Nolf prefers to play around a bit, playing catch and release, equally as pleased with a tech or a pin.
That's backed up in the stats, as Nolf has almost 50% more takedowns than Nickal this season (89 to 60), averaging 7.77 takedowns per seven minutes of wrestling and a takedown every 28 second of neutral wrestling. He also averages 2.41 nearfall points for every minute of riding time. He's beaten #2 Berger, majored #3 Ryan Deakin, and wrestles #5 Alec Pantaleo this weekend.
3) Vincenzo Joseph, Penn State: 16-0, 10 Pins
The two-time NCAA champ will probably end up being a Hodge finalist once it's all said and done. He's the only other guy on this list besides Nolf and Nical with a dominance score above five, but that's knocked down a peg perception wise since he did not wrestle Evan Wick. However, he did pick up a major over #4 Josh Shields, as well as wins over #5 Chance Marsteller and #6 Isaiah White, with a match against #7 Logan Massa this weekend.
4) Mark Hall, Penn State: 18-0, 3 Pins
Hall's faced an excellent schedule this year, with wins over numbers 2, 5, and 6, along with a match against #3 Myles Amine coming up this weekend. However, with only a 50% bonus rate, he's well behind the pace of his teammates.
5) Myles Martin, Ohio State: 11-0, 2 Pins
If you want to argue Myles Martin above Mark Hall, I wouldn't put up too much of a fight. He's got a higher dominance score, better bonus rate, and is one of the most dynamic neutral wrestlers in the country. But he's got two falls, one less than Mark Hall. With the #2 criteria being pins, it's difficult to see either of them making a big push to crack the top three.
6) Yianni Diakomihalis, Cornell: 13-0, 5 Pins
The sophomore's Hodge case takes a hit since he did not wrestle in CKLV. He will get a chance at #2 and currently undefeated Joey McKenna in the last dual of the year. He will end up with a good dominance score and bonus rate, but his quality of competition will be hurt from the EIWA. He's ahead of everyone below him in large part due to the national title.
7) Stevan Micic, Michigan: 9-0, 2 Pins
There is no weight class in more turmoil this year than 133. That leaves Micic as the only undefeated one, with a match against Nick Suriano plus the Big Ten tournament looming. Going undefeated and winning the toughest weight could push Micic up into Hodge finalist status. His status as a returning NCAA finalist helps him right now put him over Ashnault, Rivera, and Steveson.
8) Anthony Ashnault Rutgers: 17-0, 7 Pins
His battle with #1 Matt Kolodzik this weekend could go a long way towards determining his legitimacy as a Hodge candidate. He's got double the bonus rate of Kolodzik and has seven pins to the Tiger junior's zero, so that's why he's in at 149. That could of course change this weekend.
Watch Princeton at Rutgers | Sunday Noon Eastern
9) Sebastian Rivera, Northwestern: 18-0, 2 Pins
Rivera lost out on another opportunity to beat defending national champ Spencer Lee, though he also avoided a potential loss when he faced Perez Perez. Rivera's not much of a pinner, but if he can go undefeated with multiple wins over the defending NCAA champ, it will be a major feather in his cap to be a Hodge finalist.
10) Gable Steveson, Minnesota: 24-0, 4 Pins
With no prior accomplishments, plus being in a weight that is traditionally held in less regard than the lower weights, hurts Gable. He's also only getting a pin every six matches, but he can become the first true freshman since 1947 to end the year undefeated.
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