One of the most popular questions in the lead-up before NCAAs is "who will be the biggest surprise?"

It's really a no-win proposition. The data points are there for the world to see; we value wrestlers' chances based upon what they have been all season.

It makes picking "sleepers" almost seem silly heading into this week's tournament in Clevelend — there's nothing there to suggest it.

What you can do is look at brackets and the path each wrestler has to identify navigable roads for lower seeds and abnormally difficult roads for top seeds.

So before you have your fantasy draft, check this article out. I'll go weight by weight identifying the potential for 1) lower seeds that could make a run (which I define as making a semi), 2) backdoor All-Americans, and 3) top seeds that may not place. I'll also list my projected blood-round matchups.

125lb

Dark Horse Semifinalists: Moisey (WVU), Bresser (Oregon St.)

Defending champ Darian Cruz doesn't have the easiest path. In the quarters he'll get either Ethan Lizak, whom he beat in finals last year, or Ronnie Bresser, who beat Spencer Lee this year. I'm taking Lizak over Bresser, and Darian over, well, everyone. But Bresser might be a sneaky play. Darian had a 1-0 win over Shakur Laney last year and another 1-0 win over Noah Baughman in the finals of EIWA's last week. You have a puncher's chance here with Bresser, who gave up just four takedowns all season. 

I include Moisey for two reasons: 1) Nick Suriano's health and 2) Moisey's 2015 run in which he beat national champ Nahshon Garrett and then Thomas Gilman. 

Backdoor All-American: Moisey (WVU)

Even if Moisey loses in Round 2 to Suriano, his path back is kind. It would likely include 12 seed Louie Hayes and 10 seed Sebastian Rivera. While Rivera beat Moisey at Midlands this year, it's still as friendly a road as you can hope for Moisey, the 13 seed.

Who Won't AA: No Surprises

I don't see any of the top seeds having a glaringly difficult path. Look at the projected blood-round bouts below. Nick Piccininni will likely have Bresser, but that's about it.

Willie's Projected Blood-Round Matchups

133lb 

Dark Horse Semifinalist: Scotty Parker (Lehigh)

This weight is pretty closed off in terms of title contenders. Seth Gross and Stevan Micic are heavy favorites to reach the finals. Kaid Brock, the four seed, gave Gross a good run in B12 finals last week — so throw him in. But Micic posted two decisive wins over three seed Luke Pletcher recently. 

So gimme Parker as a potential surprise semifinalist. He'll have to go through Dom Forys, who beat him earlier this year, and Pletcher. It's not the easiest path, but he's the only one the conceivably fits the bill.

Backdoor All-Americans: Forys (Pitt), Duncan (Illinois)

You'll have to pick your poison here. I have Parker avenging his lost to Forys on the front side, and as a result, a projected Forys-Duncan R16 bout. The winner will have Bridges in the blood round. That ain't too shabby for Forys, the 11 seed and the unseeded Duncan, who just took third at B1Gs.

Who Won't AA: Austin DeSanto (Drexel)

DeSanto comes in as the seven seed but because Jack Mueller faltered a few times this year, including a loss to Gustafson at ACCs last week, DeSanto has a date with the returning semifinalist in Round 2. The two have met three times this year. Mueller won 4-0 and 7-0 at CKLV. DeSanto was winning at the Scuffle when he had to medical default. Now, I'm taking Mueller here. DeSanto certainly could win, in which case this prediction is a bust. 

The loser of this match drops to a spot where he gets Erneste in the blood round. I'd take Erneste over DeSanto. The winner will get Terao or Renteria. 

Willie's Projected Blood-Round Matchups

141lb

Dark Horse Semifinalists: No Surprises

The top contenders here are too established. My semifinalists are the top four seeds: Meredith and McKenna up top and Yianni and Eierman down below. The only two you can possibly see derailing that are Dean Heil and Kevin Jack, neither of whom would be true "surprises."

Backdoor All-Americans: Tyler Smith (Bucknell)

Draft him as a sleeper. Thank me later. 

I have Tyler as a R1 winner over Brent Moore before losing to Jack. He'll beat Pohlmeyer, then Karam (whom he's 2-0 against this year). That will put him in a blood-round match against Zacherl.

Who Won't AA: Nick Lee (Penn State)

Lee has a tough row to hoe. He'll beat Ryan Diehl in the first round and then have Josh Alber. He's already beaten Alber, but it was a competitive match. I have him winning it again. But the next round (quarters) would present him with top seed Bryce Meredith.

Here are Lee's two likely scenarios: 1) lose to Alber, get Heil in the blood round, 2) lose to Meredith in the quarters and get Mikey Carr in the blood round. Carr just beat Lee handily at B1Gs. 

This becomes moot should Carr get knocked off before he reaches Lee (because I'd take Lee vs. anyone else that would potentially face him in the blood round.) But of the top eight seeds, only Lee and the seventh-seeded Zacherl, who will have Tyler Smith in the blood round, are candidates to not AA. I mean, the six seed is a two-time defending champ.

Willie's Projected Blood-Round Matchups

149

Dark Horse Semifinalists: Kolodzik (Princeton), Tsirtsis (Arizona St.)

Matt Kolodzik moved from 141 to 149 this year, and though he hasn't set the world on fire (he's just a month removed from a loss to Brown's wholly unrankable Zach Krause), he's talented, capable, and has as nice a draw as an 11 seed could hope for. 

In Round 2, he'll see six seed Justin Oliver, who's injured to the extent that he placed fourth at MACs, was pinned by a wrestler with a 2-9 record and needed a wild card. It's a toss-up match if Oliver is healthy. Under the current circumstances, I'm taking Kolo all day.

That will set up a date in the quarters with Grant Leeth. You favor Leeth a tad, but it's certainly a winnable match.

Let's also throw Jason Tsirtsis in there. He has Deakin, who he lost to at Midlands, in Round 2. But Deakin is hurt, medical forfeiting out of B1Gs. 

Get by Deakin and he gets Brandon Sorenson who he's faced six times in his career. One match was a default. Of the other five, Sorenson won three, Tsirtsis won two (including at NCAAs). Four of the five went to overtime, and the winning wrestler never had more than three points. Yep, there's a chance for this 10 seed. 

Backdoor All-Americans: Too Many to Name

This weight is wide open. Consider that the #3 and #4 seeds have never AA'd, and that gives you an indication of the "sure things" after Zain and Sorenson.

Let's start with Boo Lewallen. I know, I know. He's the eight seed and that's already AA territory. The reason I include him is because he held a double-digit rank the entire season. He'll AA. He gets Davion R1, then Thomsen, who he picked apart in B12 finals, in Round 2. He'll lose to Zain but then drop down to a blood round vs. an injured Justin Oliver.

Alfred Bannister had a good B1Gs. Max Thomsen didn't look great at B12. They'll hit for a spot in the blood round vs. Leeth or Kolodzik.

Most 9 to 16 seeds at 149 have a true shot at AA. 

If you're in a fantasy league and want to wait on a weight class, wait on 149.

Who Won't AA: Oliver (Central Michigan), Deakin (Northwestern)

In saying the weight is wide open in terms of who AAs, you're also saying that no one will really be shocked at the backside results.

But I don't suggest picking Oliver or Deakin. Neither is healthy and they draw Kolodzik and Tsirtsis, respectively, in Round 2.

Willie's Projected Blood-Round Matchups

157lb

Dark Horse Semifinalists: No Surprises

Really clear cut at 157. The semifinalists will come from the top seven seeds: Hidlay, Pantaleo, and Shields up top; Nolf, Kemerer, Lavallee, and Micah in the bottom. 

Backdoor All-Americans: Crone (WIS), Finesilver (Duke)

Finesilver and Crone are the 12 and 14 seeds, respectively, and I'm pretty confident both will reach that blood round after early front side losses.

Let's look at their seasons. Finesilver's only real solid win was Kennedy Monday (twice). But he was 27-4 with losses only to Hidlay (twice), Colgan, and Nolf.

Crone has been a little up and down at 26-10, but posted wins this season over Pantaleo and Berger.

Now let's look at their paths. Finesilver will get beat by Pantaleo in Round 2. Then he'll have Coleman Hammond (who he beat this year), the Larry Early-Staudenmayer winner, then Micah in the blood round.

Crone will lose to Nolf in Round 2, with a comeback path of Short (whom he beat last weak), Ream (whom you also might want to target), and then Berger.

While both are far from locks to AA, they could earn significant points on the backside and give themselves a shot to AA in blood round matches.

Who Won't AA: No Surprises

The only top eight seed that will have it difficult is Berger, who gets an Archie Colgan that looked tough at Big 12s last week. Other than that, top seeds look like locks.

Keep an eye on Kemerer, though. He hasn't looked right since injuring his leg. Because of the seeding debacle, he gets Nolf in quarters. He'll fall to a blood-round match against either Colgan or Kennedy Monday. Under normal circumstances, no sweat. But the injury is concerning.

Willie's Projected Blood-Round Matchups

165lb

Dark Horse Semifinalist: Evan Wick (Wisconsin)

Does this even count? Wick was great this year. So it really wouldn't be a surprise. But I had to pick someone and as the 10 seed he fits the definition. 

On one hand, Wick's road is brutal. He'll have to go through Logan Massa and two seed David McFadden. 

On the other hand, Wick is 2-1 vs. Massa this year including a win at B1Gs (remind me again why Wick was seeded 10th!?). 

McFadden did handle Wick with a first-period fall in the finals of CKLV, but a Wick win wouldn't really be a shocker.

Backdoor All-Americans: Isaiah White (Nebraska)

Coming in as the 11 seed, White had some bright spots this year that included wins over Wanzek and Wick. I have him losing in R2 vs. Richie Lewis but stay woke on the upset special there — in the dual, Lewis won 2-1 in rideouts.

But let's work under the assumption White loses there. He drops in a very nice spot. His first wrestleback will be against Jacob Morrissey, whom he's majored twice this year. Then he has Branson Ashworth, whom he's 2-0 against this season. 

To break through to AA, he'll have to beat Chance Marsteller in the blood round. Tough one, but aren't they all at that stage? White offers premium upside for an 11 seed. 

165: Who Won't AA: Chad Walsh (Rider)

This is an ultimate boom-or-bust pick. Perhaps no other wrestler in the field has such a pivotal quarter. Walsh comes in as the four seed and will face Marinelli there. Can he win that match? Sure. But I'm not picking it.

So I have him dropping to a blood round match against the Wick-Massa loser. 

Willie's Projected Blood-Round Matchups

174lb

Dark Horse Semifinalists: No Surprises

I hate saying "no surprises," but the only people picking a semifinalist outside of the top six (Zahid, Hall, Lewis, Kutler, Amine, BoJo) seeds are either your coach or your momma. 

Backdoor All-Americans: Jacobe Smith (OK St.)

18-5 on the year, Smith comes in as just the 13-seed. It will be a long road back as he has Kutler (who beat him 5-4 at Journeymen in November) in Round 2. But his path will be nice — Bullard and then Womack before a B12 finals rematch in the blood round against seven seed Taylor Lujan.

Who Won't AA: Taylor Lujan (N. Iowa)

Read above. The B12 final between him and Smith was awesome, with Jacobe notching several takedowns in upper body positions. It's a really tough blood-round draw for Lujan, and if I have to pick a top eight seed to come up short, this is an easy target.

Willie's Projected Blood-Round Matchups

184lb

Dark Horse Semifinalists: No Surprises

Very similar to 174 where the top six seeds (Taylor Venz is the seventh) have the semis seemingly on lock.

Backdoor All-Americans: Emory Parker (Illinois), Bryce Carr (Chattanooga)

The Venz-Parker Round 2 matchup looms large, more for the assignments on the back side than on the front. 

The two split this year with Venz winning at B1Gs. 

The winner at NCAAs will get Myles Martin and drop to the blood round with, I'm predicting, Carr. The loser will funnel into a potential blood-round match with Abounader.

Carr is an interesting pick. His losses this year: Myles, Zavatsky, Renda, and Drew Foster twice. He also went 2-0 against Nick Reenan.

Carr has a long road, as he probably drops his R2 match to Abounader, but he's sneaky as a 12 seed. 

Who Won't AA: Parker (Illinois) or Taylor Venz (Nebraska)

Now I'm only supposed to take top eight seeds that won't place, and Parker is a 10. But the two are pretty identical in the W-L ledger. 

Parker beat Myles on the front side last year but lost in the blood round to Nate Jackson.

As stated above: Win this match and you get a much easier blood round. Lose and you're staring at the Abounader-Renda loser.

Willie's Projected Blood-Round Matchups

197lb

Dark Horse Semifinalist: Smith (West Virginia), Weigel (OK St.)

Smith is a veteran that will appear in his third NCAAs. Last year at Big 12s he suffered an ugly season-ending injury. And through much of the regular season this year he just didn't look right. But last week at B12s he beat a top 10 Preston Weigel. 

In short, if Smith is back on track, it's one of the worst draws ever for a #2 seed.

I have no idea if that singular win (Smith lost to Rotert in the finals) means he's "back." And even if he is, is the best version of Smith better than Darmstadt? And can he string together three matches to get to the semis?

It's a really weird dynamic and a really weird matchup stylistically. I'm not picking the upset, but he's the clear (and only) dark horse at the weight.

And it's by far the best most interesting match of the first round.

I'm also giving Weigel a shot against Moore. Yeah, I know, Moore majored him in the quarters last year. I still think Weigel can go with him, and it's worth the shot if you pick a 97 late and grab a nine seed.

Backdoor All-Americans: Jeric Kasunic (American) and Danny Chaid (UNC)

This is 197. We've been talking about it all year. I have zero confidence in picking outside shots here. Heck, I have zero confidence in the top seeds. But here we go...

Kasunic (with losses to Weiler and Loiseau) didn't have a great EIWAs. But after losing to Macchiavello in R2 he'll have a nice Seely and then Chaid, whom Kasunic beat earlier this year. Winner gets Mattiace in the blood round. 

Who Won't AA: Nathan Rotert (SDSU)

Hell if I know. I'm predicting chaos at this weight. But I have Rotert losing to Weigel in Round 2 and then going into a tough group with Weiler, Jake Smith, and then Miklus in the blood round.

I also don't recommend Mattiace, who has a scary R2 matchup with Scottie Boykin.

Willie's Projected Blood-Round Matchups

285lb

Dark Horse Semifinalists: No Surprises

I can't imagine a world in which the final four are composed of anything but Snyder, Coon, and two of the other top six seeds.

Backdoor All-Americans: Mike Hughes (Hofstra)

Hughes, the 11 seed, hits Dhesi in Round 2, setting up a blood-round match with the Hall-White winner. While I don't necessarily like his chances against either, he did beat White in November, 1-0. 

Who Won't AA: Tanner Hall (ASU), Derek White (OK St.)

The second-round matchup between #8 Tanner Hall and #9 Derek White is critical. The loser will have Dhesi (or Nevills) in the blood round.

Willie's Projected Blood-Round Matchups

All Projected Blood-Round Matchups