Why Nick Suriano Won't Get The 2 Seed

Tony Rotundo
125 Round of 16 - Joey Dance, Virginia Tech vs Devin Brown, West Virginia
There are always myriad seeding questions entering the NCAA Championships, with the latest FRL in particular focusing heavily on 184 pounds.

I wanted to examine 125lbs after I saw this tweet giving the criteria. The question for the No. 2 seed at NCAAs on March 16-18 in St. Louis comes down to three guys: Penn State's Nick Suriano, Virginia Tech's Joey Dance, and Lehigh's Darian Cruz.

Prior to the Oklahoma State match, it seemed pretty clear that Suriano was the heavy favorite to be seeded second behind Iowa's Thomas Gilman. Then Suriano suffered what we believe to be a high ankle sprain (not confirmed but it was clearly an ankle injury of some kind) and injury defaulted out of Big Tens. This gave Suriano the biggest hit in seeding criteria, as he would receive a "0" for conference placement, while Cruz and Dance won EIWAs and ACCs, respectively. Theoretically, having to receive an at-large bid would put him behind 28 other wrestlers in the matrix in the conference-finish department.

Rough comparison of how all three stack up based on the seeding criteria
null

Now, conference placement is only 10 percent of the seven criteria. Another 10 percent of the criteria is RPI, which favors Dance (2), ahead of Suriano (3) and Cruz (5). As for coaches rank, which is 15 percent, Suriano (2) leads here, followed by Dance (3) and Cruz (4). Coaches rank is one of Suriano's strongest allies in his bid for the two seed and is done by the group found here.

Winning percentage is another criteria which counts for 10%, and we once again have Dance coming out on top. His record is 25-1, followed by Cruz at 26-2, and Suriano at 16-3 (as listed by the NCAA). Whether you agree with Suriano's last two counting or not, they are deemed as official Division I losses. Dance only trails Gilman at this weight, with Cruz in third, and then Josh Rodriguez in fourth. Suriano is tied for fifth among qualifiers with Sean Russell.

Per Jason Borrelli on FRL 18 (see below), a quality win is defined as one in which you beat an opponent who earned an auto-qualifier allocation prior to his conference tournament (gold/silver standard) AND then qualified by placing at that conference tournament. By that criteria, Suriano has four quality wins this year. Dance has 10 such wins (over eight opponents), and Cruz has eight quality wins against six opponents. To put Suriano in perspective, he has fewer quality wins than Ethan Lizak (though Suriano has a H2H over Lizak) and the same number as Josh Rodriguez and Tim Lambert.

Now we're really getting into the weeds: head-to-head matchups and common opponents. Suriano's strongest case for the two seed comes from his 7-0 win over Cruz, who in turn owns a 4-2 victory over Dance. But Suriano did not wrestle Dance, and the common-opponent win must also be factored in with matches against guys like Jose Rodriguez, Russell, and Lizak (who beat Cruz but lost to Suriano).

If this were, say, a high school conference tournament, it would seem rather straightforward how Suriano, Cruz, and Dance would be seeded. The seeding committee is comprised of:
  • ​Brian Smith, Missouri head coach
  • Tom Ryan, Ohio St head coach
  • Valerie Richardson, Virginia associate AD 
  • Brian Hill, Air Force vice director of athletics
  • Bob Patnesky, Davidson head coach
  • William Walker, American AD
Had Suriano wrestled to second at Big Tens, there wouldn't be a question here. But given that he had to receive an at-large bid, had just four quality wins and is below Josh Rodriguez in win percentage, it appears both Dance and Cruz have arguments to be seeded ahead of Suriano.

Hopefully this will shed some light on the seeding process and perhaps force the NCAA to publicly release the seeding info to the community, beyond what can be found here on pages 12 and 13.

A Decade of Recruiting

Ten Year's of Recruiting Class Rankings

Join PRO Now to Get Unlimited Access to FloWrestling!

Join Now

Already a PRO Member? Log In

FRL 291 - Is Burroughs Right To Be Upset? BTS + WTT Mega Show

Josh Conklin
FRL 291 - Beat The Streets and World Team Trials

FRL 291 discusses Jordan Burroughs complaints about Frank Chamizo training in America, Snyder’s epic comeback and Nike shade plus WTT’s biggest storylines.

Jason Renteria Granted Release From Nebraska

Richard Immel
133 m, Jason Renteria, Nebrask vs Logan Griffin, MSU

Jason Renteria is looking for a new home after one season at Nebraska.

Edinboro Sees 2 Starters Transfer: Russell To Minnesota, Geer To OK State

Richard Immel
125 lbs Nick Piccininni, Oklahoma State vs Sean Russell, Edinboro

Two Edinboro starters will be wrestling for different teams this fall. Sean Russell, an All-American at 125 pounds, is going to Minnesota to use his final year of eligibility as a Golden Gopher, and 184-pounder Dakota Geer will transfer to Oklahoma State with sophomore eligibility.

Final X Matchups Set!

Tony Rotundo
Final X Is Coming

All 20 of the Final X matchups have been set. The three different Final X locations will determine who will represent the United States in men's and women's freestyle at the World Championships in Budapest, Hungary, this October.

125kg World Team Trials Preview: It's Coon's Year

Tony Rotundo
125 kg Rnd Of 16 - Ben Durbin, TMWC vs Adam Coon, NYAC/MWC

With the World Team Trials challenge tournament finally upon us, all eyes are on 125kg. The deepest and most interesting weight at the U.S. Open in Las Vegas carries over to Rochester, Minnesota this weekend.

2018 UWW Junior World Team Trials Bracket Reactions

Richard Immel

We've got the brackets. All that's left to do is weigh in. The 2018 UWW Junior World Team Trials brackets are live in FloArena, and as expected, the fields for this weekend's challenge tournament in Rochester, MN, are much smaller than the ones at the U.S. Open in Las Vegas last month. 

By The Numbers: Senior World Team Trials

Tony Rotundo
World Team Trials, Last Stop Before Final X

The best wrestlers in the U.S. are looking to get one step closer to claiming a spot on the 2018 senior world team as they clash this weekend at the World Team Trials challenge tournament in Rochester, MN.

97kg World Team Trials Preview: Revenge Is Coming

Tony Rotundo
97 kg Quarterfinal - Ty Walz, TMWC vs Austin Schafer, Nyac/flwc

For some, any 97kg bracket in America that doesn't feature Kyle Snyder is glossed over. If that was you, then you missed the Cinderella story that came out of Las Vegas last month.

2018 UWW Junior World Team Trials: An Overview

Austin Bernard

This weekend in Rochester, Minnesota, 10 young men's freestyler's will earn the right to represent America at the Junior world championships. Starting on Friday, May 18th, and culminating with the finals on Saturday, May 19th, the UWW Junior world team trials will be used to determine who gets to go to Trnava, Slovakia this September.