Starting this year, this weight was looking to be more about the coronation of a legend.  Nick Gwiazdowski would be going for his third title against a field he had already bested, and frankly dominated a year before.  Many of Nick’s biggest potential opponents graduated last year. Everything changed on New Years day when Ohio State changed their plans and brought Kyle Snyder out of his Olympic Redshirt.  The Buckeye’s plot twist added a wrinkle in this weight class that few ever considered.  Gwiazdowski was trying to make history, now standing in his way the youngest World Champion in US history.  

Title Contenders:

Nick Gwiazdowski, NC State
Kyle Snyder, Ohio State

Dark Horses:

Tanner Hall, ASUBlaize Cabell, UNI

CP’s Final Predictions:

1. Kyle Snyder, Ohio State
2. Nick Gwiazdowski, NC State
3. Ty Walz, Virginia Tech
4. Austin Marsden, Ok State
5. Adam Coon, Michigan
6. Amar Dhesi, Oregon State
7. Max Wessell, Lehigh
8. Denzel Dejournette, App State

Round of 12: Joe Stolfi, Bucknell (Losses to Coon and Dhesi), Sam Stoll, Iowa (Losses to Wessell and Dejournette), Tanner Hall, ASU (Losses to Dhesi and Walz), Mike Kroells, App State (Losses to Dejournette and Wessell)

For starters, let me say that my Stoll prediction is 100% rooted in his current state of health.  He didn’t look to be the same guy at Big 10’s and that’s what I’m basing this off of.  If he was right, I think he makes the quarters no problem, beats Kroells in the round of 12 and maybe Dhesi in the next round.  If Sam comes out and looks good, he could place 6th very reasonably.  Just don’t think that’s what we’ll see.

I’ve gone back and forth on this 8 spot between Kroells and Dejournette.  Re-watching their Scuffle semi, I think I favor Dejournette in the rematch as well.  I felt he took ground and pressured Kroells very well.  Also, he did a great job effectively defending a nice single leg from Kroells.  So I have Denzel beating Black and Stoll before falling to Walz then beating Kroells in the round of 12.  This could very well be Max Wessell, which should be a tougher match up, but equally winnable.  I think Dejournette falls to Dhesi and Wessell for 8th place.

The Lehigh coaching staff has done a great job with Wessell keeping him healthy and clicking throughout the year.  His durability has often been an issue but he looked great at EIWA’s.  His physique is really the elephant in the room when he takes the mat.  He’s as put together as anyone in this weight.  He has incredible agility along with a great feel in upper body ties.  I think he beats Kroells in round 2, though that’s been a back and forth affair historically.  He’ll fall to Gwiaz but beat Stoll in the round of 12.  Afterwards I think he falls to Coon who is a bad match up stylistically for Wessell.  Then I believe Max will take care of business against Dejournette for 7th place.

Amar Dhesi came in this year as maybe the one guy people speculated could give Gwiazdowski some trouble.  His athleticism and leg attacks made him at least an interesting discussion point.  Since then Kyle Snyder has come back and we have seen Dhesi fall to Fagiano, Hall and Coon.  It quickly ceased all discussion that Dhesi could be the guy to stop history.  Still, Dhesi has had a strong year and won a very tough Pac 12.  His draw is tailor-made til he hits Snyder.  Stolfi is not going to be at 100% against Dhesi.  Even if he were, it’d be a difficult match up (though Dhesi’s bottom issues combined with Stolfi’s tendency to turn just about everyone is intriguing).  I have Dhesi getting it done since he’s more healthy.  In the round of 12 he’ll have another match against Hall that I think he wins (though Hall snuck one on him at Midlands) as well as a win over Dejournette.  He’ll run into trouble against Austin Marsden and Coon and settle for 6th.  Coon has struggled with him in Freestyle, yet in folk it was Coon who dominated Dhesi last time around.

Coon checks in at the 5 spot after another strong year.  Coon spent time training and competing at Greco as he looks to make the 2016 Olympic team.  I think Coon is stuck in the 5.  Watching him against Marsden last year and Walz through 3 matches, it seems like those match ups will continue to be difficult for him to win.  Likewise, there’s really nobody behind him that I view as a threat to Coon.  He has yet to develop a strong, go to leg attack.  That has hurt him.  Guys who can clear his hooks and attack his legs have success.  I think he makes the quarter before falling to Coon.  Coon will then run through Stolfi, Wessell and then fall to Walz and beat Dhesi for 5th.  I’m not indulging the Dhesi > Coon conversation at this point.  Freestyle and Folkstyle are different.  

2 years ago Marsden had a pretty poor regular season, yet placed.  Last year he had a great regular season, yet found himself off the podium.  I think he puts it all together this year with a top 4 showing, his best to date.  Marsden was nearly surgical in his domination of Coon a year ago.  I don’t see anything having changed between either guy to suggest a different outcome.  I think he hits the semi against Gwiazdowski where he will at least make Nick work, but won’t be able to threaten.  Gwiaz will ultimately triumph sending Marsden to a match against Dhesi, that I think he wins.  The Walz/Marsden bout will be interesting and is toss-up material.  I’m siding with Walz, who knocked Marsden off last year at NCAA’s. Marsden closes out his career with a 4th place finish.

Walz has continued to evolve in year 3 at Virginia Tech.  I’ve mentioned elsewhere that his draw is suboptimal.  Hall really pushed him at VA duals, and Cabell is 2-1 against him historically.  Things get no better/worse in that quarter against Dejournette.  All in all we have 3 difficult matches, but matches where Walz should be the winner all the same.  

I don’t give him much of a shot against Snyder, but there are some important things to observe in this semi.  Walz has some similarities to Gwiaz in terms of style.  He likes to operate from space and utilize fakes/motion to get to legs.  Gwiaz is a superior version of this, obviously, but Snyder’s ability to deal with Ty will tell us a lot about how he will do with Gwiaz.  If Walz avoids ties against Snyder effectively and Snyder can’t get to legs frequently, I may consider changing my pick.  If Snyder is slapping collar ties and getting heavy steps from Walz, I’m continuing to feel comfortable in my Snyder > Gwiazdowski prediction.


Back to Walz, I think Ty takes out Coon for the 4th time in the consolation semi’s then Marsden for 3rd.  Walz has proven to be extremely difficult to takedown and has been able to get to his low single and high crotch against just about anybody. Additionally, his agility makes him difficult to take down.  3rd is the spot for Ty, but it won’t be easy.

I’ll be honest, this match up has kept me up at night.  Trying to use film, results and other means to figure this out and I still am not sure.  My initial gut, gun to my head reaction was Snyder would win.  Then I reflected on Snyder’s last year wrestling Folk.  You can say “Snyder was a completely different guy when he won World’s.”  That may be (and likely is) true. However, I think the timeframe we look at here is important.  It’s not the leaps from March to September that I am considering.  It’s from March to early April.  Snyder went from an NCAA runner up with losses to Nathan Burak, Morgan McIntosh and Kyven Gadson to beating Jake Varner decisively.  Now, can we truly believe that Snyder just made jumps of that magnitude in just a few weeks.  Or, is Snyder a completely different wrestler when he’s wrestling freestyle.  Snyder has built his game around freestyle tactics and made it work in folkstyle, not the other way around. It’s an important distinction to make, in my opinion.  

Re-attacks may be the way to go for Gwiaz:

The point I’m getting at is while Snyder has made leaps in his wrestling and is a Senior level World champion,  the problems that he faced against Burak, McIntosh and Gadson cannot be merely sloughed off as “oh, he’s a different guy now.”

Another point I’ll make, is that I’m not swayed by Snyder’s clinic-esque matches.  Scoring takedowns at will against Brooks Black, Jan Johnson or even Adam Coon don’t tell me much about the potential Gwiazdowski match up.  For one, Gwiazdowski similarly lit up Coon in the NCAA finals last year.  Secondly, Gwiaz is such a superior athlete from a mobility, positioning, motion standpoint, that you cannot even compare the ease in which Snyder gets to legs on the plodders.  Gwiaz is a thoroughbred who will not be a victim to near this degree.  Another point that is too often discounted for Gwiazdowski is his leg attack defense.  He has been able to give up great position on leg attacks and has been able to defend well.  From a high crotch he is great at getting to a crackdown position, chest locking and getting his leg out.  He also has incredible re-attacks bolstered by his great agility to get to angles.  Gwiazdowski may be among the best finishers on leg attacks in the country as well.  In the past, Snyder’s leg attack defense once you’re in on his leg can be considered one of the more suspect areas of his wrestling (as much of a hole as you can find in a guy who is so unbelievably complete).  

I know, it sounds like all I’m doing is building the case for Gwiazdowski.  In fact, I can do more to build the case FOR Gwiazdowski than I can against it.  Hence the stress this has caused me.  For me, as I mentioned before, I see this coming down to Snyder getting to his ties.  Both guys are fantastic on bottom, and neither will be ridden.  Get that out of your mind Gwiazdowski fans, as good as Gwiaz is on top, he ain’t riding Snyder.  So we are left with a takedown contest between two living legends.  I see Kyle Snyder having a slight edge on his feet.  I believe he’ll get to his collar tie and be able to create the reactions he needs to get to legs and finish.  It will take multiple attempts to put Gwiazdowski down.  I think he’ll get them, and I think Gwiazdowski will struggle to get to his legs. Gwiazdowski has wrestled every match this year in the exact positions he prefers.  This will be the first time that dynamic shifts.  Snyder will take it to the positions he wants to be in and score the key takedown. Gwiazdowski falls just short of obtaining D1 285 GOAT status.

This has been on my mind constantly. I’ve reached out to as many sharp wrestling minds that I can (a perk of this job, for sure).  Many believe that Snyder is the guy.  So I side with my initial gut, and the opinions of those whom I trust more than the mountain of evidence that may suggest Gwiazdowski is the choice.

In the end we are left with the greatest college heavyweight match in history.  We are left with two guys who make wrestling the most incredible sport to spectate.  Dynamic athletes who attack and wrestle hard.  It will be a fitting end to the 2016 NCAA’s.  Two guys who many think could be Olympic teammates as early as 2016.  If that happens, it just adds to the legend of this bout.  Don’t miss it.