This weight has had 2 big dogs coming into the year that looked to be significant favorites coming into the season.  Nothing really has changed on that front as rivals J’Den Cox of Missouri and Morgan McIntosh from PSU have been unblemished throughout (Save J’Den’s DQ against Wellington).  There’s real separation of talent in this weight which could potentially yield some surprise All American’s.

Title Contenders:

J’Den Cox, Missouri
Morgan McIntosh, Penn State

Dark Horses:

Pat Downey, Iowa StatePreston Weigel, Ok State
Michael Boykin, NC State
Scottie Boykin, UTC

CP’s Final Predictions:

1. J’Den Cox, Missouri
2. Morgan McIntosh, Penn State
3. Conner Hartmann, Duke
4. Brett Pfarr, Minnesota
5. Nathan Burak, Iowa
6. Jared Haught, Virginia Tech
7. Michael Boykin, NC State
8. Aaron Studebaker, Nebraska

Round of 12: Max Huntley, Michigan (Losses to Burak and Harner), Pat Downey, Iowa State (Losses to Studebaker and Haught), Brett Harner, Princeton (Losses to Michael Boykin and J’Den Cox), Scottie Boykin, UTC (Losses to Haught and Rotert)

Nebraska’s Studebaker has had a nice run for himself this season.  He’s like a lot of Nebraska’s guys this year.  Very tough, but could easily fall off the podium.  I think Studebaker takes out Sprenkle and Franklin before falling to McIntosh.  In the round of 12 he’ll have his hands full against Downey, but I think his pace gives him the edge over Downey who hasn’t been in the mix all season for Iowa State.  Afterwards, I think he’ll fall to Burak and Michael Boykin for 8th place.

Boykin is likely my biggest wildcard for this bracket.  He’ll have to pull more than a few upsets to earn a 7th place finish.  Boykin will have a long road after falling to Hartmann in round 2.  I have Michael going through Wellington, Weigel and then Brett Harner.  Harner is a very interesting guy to look at.  You see his 33-3 record and think ironclad stud who is unlikely to be defeated.  However a deeper dive shows just one win over a top 10 seed (Studebaker, who he split with) and losses to Ryan Wolfe and Michael Woulfe.  So you can say he’s been solid, and you could say he’s just is intimidated by wolves in general.  No wolves, no problem?  Perhaps. I think Boykin downs him in the round of 12 before falling to Haught.  This sends Boykin to a very winnable match against Studebaker.  He had Studebaker beaten before giving up a takedown as time expired.  

Jared Haught has gone from a borderline NCAA qualifier a year ago to a top 6 seed.  Having watched a lot of Haught through the years, I’m not terribly surprised.  Frankly, if he pulled the trigger more on his leg attacks, I think he’d be all the more dangerous.  Haught’s draw is no cakewalk, but I think he navigates through Wheeler and Downey before dropping a match to Pfarr.  He was right in the match with Pfarr last time around but he didn’t give himself many opportunities to score.  After dropping his match to Pfarr, I think he beats Scottie Boykin and Michael Boykin (no relation) back to back.  He’ll face an old nemesis in Hartmann who sends Jared to the 5th place match where I think he loses once more to Nathan Burak of Iowa.

I believe there’s a strong top 5 in this weight.  The 3-5 spots could fall in a variety of different combinations.  Pfarr and Burak have split, Hartmann lost to Pfarr, but we’ve seen Hartmann can go with the best before as he’s taken out McIntosh previously.  I settled with Burak coming in the 5 spot.  I think he falls to both Hartmann in the quarters and Pfarr in the consolation semi’s.  I could see him notching a win in either one of those bouts, especially the Pfarr match. Hartmann I believe presents a match up problem with his ridiculous athleticism and scrambling.  So Burak caps off a great career with another All American performances for the Hawkeyes, his 3rd straight.

Pfarr has looked fantastic up at 197.  He knocked off Hartmann and has been racking up bonus points along the way.  I see him running to the semi’s before being dropped by J’Den, who is not a good match up at all for Pfarr.  Then we’ll have the Burak/Pfarr coin flip and the Pfarr/Hartmann coin flip for 3rd.  I think Brett drops this one this time around.  Last time they hit it was 1 shot apiece.  Pfarr finished (controversially) and Hartmann didn’t.  I think we could see it go the other way this time.  Obviously it’s with a low degree of certainty I make this pick.

Duke’s Conner Hartmann jumped onto the scene almost exactly two years ago when he made a run to an All American finish from out of nowhere.  The Washington native has a great style to watch.  He can attack legs, scramble and ride extremely tough.  He took out Morgan McIntosh last year at NCAA’s and it’s for that reason that I think he will place third here again.  He’s as complete as anyone outside of the J’Den/McIntosh tier.  While he’ll drop matches that others won’t, I think we’ve seen he puts it together in March.  That’s what we’ll see one last time as Hartmann finishes 3rd to cap off his career.


Morgan McIntosh can do it. He really can.  I just don’t think he will.  I’m practically certain this will be our final.  We can all at least agree they’ve been the two best all year long.  McIntosh has been among the leaders in the country for bonus point victories.  I think he gets by Wolfe, Conel and then hits the rematch against the Hartmann/Burak winner.  McIntosh will hope for Burak as that’s been a better match up for the Californian than Hartmann.  Either way, I give him that win and a trip to the finals.  The problem is he’ll be facing J’Den who is a brutal match up for him.  J’Den is 3-1 against McIntosh during their college careers.  Cox has been a handful from the top position, riding like a blanket and threatening a cradle at all times.  From neutral, McIntosh has struggled to find openings apart from his lone win last year at NCAA’s.  J’Den was also coming of the gutting semi final loss to Kyle Snyder.  We’ve seen guys have the “Drop down blues” time and time again.  I’m not saying that’s what happened, but it should at least be considered. I look for J’Den to go unchallenged to the finals.  I don’t see anyone pressing him outside of McIntosh.  Once there, I’ve outlined the reasons I like J’Den to win.  I think that’s how it plays out and J’Den wins his 2nd NCAA title.

J'Den v. McIntosh: