The 149 pound weight class started this year with a big 3 of sorts with Jason Tsirtsis, Zain Retherford and Brandon Sorensen.  As the year progressed, a much more defined pecking order began to form, starting with Zain Retherford cementing his spot as a clear #1.  Apart from Zain, Sorensen has been the most consistent 149 pounder this year.  Even #3 Lavion Mayes fell late to Michael DePalma.  Sorensen’s lone blemish came at the hands of Retherford.

Title Contenders:

Zain Retherford, Penn State
Lavion Mayes, Missouri
Brandon Sorensen, Iowa

Dark Horses:

Anthony Collica, Oklahoma State
BJ Clagon, Rider
Matt Kraus, Arizona State

CP’s Final Predictions:

1. Zain Retherford, Penn State2. Brandon Sorensen, Iowa
3. Lavion Mayes, Missouri
4. Anthony Collica, Oklahoma State
5. Alec Pantaleo, Michigan
6. Jason Tsirtsis, Northwestern
7.Jake Sueflohn, Nebraska
8. BJ Clagon, Rider

Round of 12: Matt Kraus, Arizona State (Losses to Clagon and Pantaleo), Evan Henderson, UNC (Losses to Tsirtsis and Retherford), Matt Cimato, Drexel (Losses to Kraus and Sueflohn), Justin Oliver, CMU (Losses to Collica and Henderson)

I’m certainly ignoring most of the relevant information here with Clagon.  I have him dropping his round 1 match against Henderson (though I admit, it’s winnable).  A year ago, Clagon came in with a similar regular season (though he beat Habat at conferences), and wound up placing 5th.  You watch BJ go and he’s got all the tools to be not just an All American, but an NCAA Champion.  That said, he’s been shaky and drops matches that you wouldn’t expect.  A year ago I watched him look like a dynamo at NCAA’d and was like, “CP, you knew he was for real, and didn’t pick him.”  So now, I’m going with talent over results.  Clagon goes through Ream, DePalma, Neff and Kraus  on the backside to ensure AA status.  Then he’ll fall to Tsirtsis and Sueflohn for 8th.  

Clagon always wrestles Tsirtsis tough:

It’s high time Jake Sueflohn got on the podium and I think this is the year he does it.  He’s been good enough to place every year, to be honest.  He’s got a great motor, can get to legs wall and is a great scrambler.  He certainly has had trouble finishing at times and that limits how high I believe he can climb.  Look for Sueflohn to take out Galasso (that’s a pretty tough match up actually) then DePalma (another tough one against a better athlete) before dropping one to Sorensen.  In the round of 12 I have him taking out Matt Cimato who I believe could fall to Kraus in round 2.  If Sueflohn makes the quarters, I like his round of 12 match.  It will be someone like Cimato, Kraus, Geo Martinez  or Davion Jefferies.  Sueflohn >. After that, I think he’ll fall to Collica then beat Clagon for 7th.

Coming in 6th I like Jason Tsirtsis to finish a very tumultuous season on the podium.  He’s never quite been able to hit his stride this season, but he’s still been fairly tough.  Between the coaching change and other circumstances, I’m surprised Tsirtsis has been able to have such a solid season.  Certainly a 'clicking on all cylinders' Tsirtsis is a title threat, but that guy hasn’t been around all year.  I have Tsirtsis falling in round 2 to Collica.  This is certainly a winnable match and an upset pick, but I love Collica’s game (I’ve been perhaps TOO high on AC this year). After dropping to Collica I like him to take out Short (who he lost to this year), Finesilver and Henderson.  It’s really a tough draw.  If he could get by Collica and drop to Mayes in the quarter he has a far more manageable round of 12 bout.  As it stands, I have him beating Henderson in the round of 12 (brutal draw for Henderson having Zain in the quarters then likely facing Tsirtsis or Collica (who beat him this year) in the round of 12. So Tsirtsis will then beat Clagon (who always wrestles him tough) then falls to Mayes and Pantaleo for 6th.

Alec Pantaleo surged from fringe top 15 guy a year ago to a very tough, legitimate top 5 guy.  Two wins over Tsirtsis at Big 10’s caught many people’s attention.  Outside of two losses to Davion Jeffries, he’s only lost to Retherford and Tsirtsis.  He’s difficult to score on and has improving attacks.  I see him making the semi’s over Short, Martinez, Kraus and then losing to Zain and then Collica before beating Tsirtsis for a solid 5th place.

Anthony Collica is someone I claimed at the start of the year would have a great season.  Through some down performances, injuries and more, it wasn’t looking like that prediction would be coming true.  However, I’ve been quite encouraged lately.  Since the Scuffle in early January he has only lost to the 1 and 3 seeds Retherford and Mayes.  In that time he has looked fantastic and pinned 2 time All American Evan Henderson.  I trust not only Collica’s talent but Oklahoma State’s ability to peak their athletes. I have Collica beating Delgado and Tsirtsis before falling to Mayes again. In the round of 12 I believe he’ll have Justin Oliver then I think he beats Sueflohn and Pantaleo before falling to Mayes again for 4th.  I’m getting a little gutsier than normal picking both Clagon and Collica to place, but I feel good about it.


I listed Mayes as a title contender and I believe he may be a more likely choice to take out Retherford than Sorensen is.  That said, I find it extremely unlikely that he’d successful against Retherford, but his ability to not just get to legs, but blow through on his finishes gives me some thought that he could at least make things difficult for Zain.  If he hadn’t dropped his match to DePalma at MAC’s I may have predicted Mayes to make the finals.  A lapse like that suggests that Sorensen will be a significant challenge.  So I think he makes the semi’s, falls to Sorensen and beats Tsirtsis and Collica for 3rd. If Sorensen can’t get his hands on Mayes, it could be a long match for the Tiger.  Mayes takes 3rd.

It’s with a small amount of confidence I take Sorensen to make the finals.  Sorensen is having an amazing regular season is not an unfamiliar story.  A year ago he took out Kindig, Tsirtsis and others for an amazing regular season.  It’s not that he disappointed majorly at NCAA’s but his loss to Cobb last year causes me to wonder if he’ll have a letdown match.  That could be in the semi’s against Mayes who is incredibly dangerous. As it stands I have Sorensen getting by Barber, Neff, Sueflohn and Mayes to make the finals.  In the finals I don’t see a path to victory for Brandon.  Zain won’t be taken down or ridden.  Runner up finish for the excellent Sophomore from Iowa.

There’s really little to discuss here. Zain, by every measurement is significantly ahead of this field.  The question for me isn’t “if” he’ll win, it’s “by how much?” Zain could be poised to go “Full Dake” this year.  Going unscored upon in the NCAA tournament in 2011 (No, I’m not counting that lame penalty point in the finals against Molinaro.  My article, my rules).  If Retherford doesn’t want to give up an escape, they will not be issued in my opinion.  He could reasonably bonus his way to the finals before likely beating Sorensen by a similar score that we saw last week at Big 10’s.  Zain puts the finishing touches of a potential Hodge Trophy winning year.