Coming into this season it was clear this weight was wide open. To the point that there wasn’t even a clear #1 choice to start the year. Heil? Gulibon? Henderson? It was tough to say. Though things have changed tremendously in this weight and Heil emerged as the #1 guy, it is clear this is the most wide open weight at NCAA’s.

Get familiar with the landscape of this weight by taking a look at the NCAA Brackets Here.

I'll outline title contenders, dark horses and my top 12. For me, dark horse is a combination of low-non seeded guys with a combination of underrated talent and an ideal draw to out-perform.

Title Contenders:

Dean Heil, Oklahoma StateJoey McKenna, Stanford
Kevin Jack, North Carolina State
Anthony Ashnault, Rutgers
Micah Jordan, Ohio State
Joey Ward, UNC

Dark Horses:

Jimmy Gulibon, Penn State
15) Brock Zacherl, Clarion
Danny Sabatello, Purdue

For how wide open this weight is, I think there’s a more defined top 8-10 than people realize. It didn’t always appear this way, but as the season has gone on, I think that has become more and more the case.

CP’s Final Predictions:

1. Joey McKenna, Stanford
2. Dean Heil, Oklahoma State
3. Kevin Jack, NC State
4. Anthony Ashnault, Rutgers
5. Micah Jordan, Ohio State
6. Tommy Thorn, Minnesota
7. Solomon Chishko, Virginia Tech
8. Todd Preston, Harvard

Round of 12: Jimmy Gulibon, PSU (Losses to Preston and Ashnault), Joey Ward, UNC (Losses to Heil and Thorn), Steve Bleise, NIU (Losses to Chishko and Ashnault), Rick Durso F & M (Losses to Ward and Jordan)

For a few years now, Todd Preston has been the picture of consistency. Last year he was looking great all season before a nasty injury at EIWA’s cut his season short. Now he’s back and looking ready to place. I think he wins his round 1 match with Everett before falling to Solomon Chishko. Preston would have some work to do at this point but I see him downing Oster, Zacherl and Gulibon to place. His style is such that it really works against a variety of wrestlers. He can play it to the vest, but he also can roll around and scramble well. His upside is limited but I think he’s got a good shot at placing and a very favorable draw out of the 10 spot.

The way I have the bracket playing out has Chishko and Preston hitting twice. It’s tough to beat someone of a similar level twice but I think Chishko can do it. Despite some fears about his effectiveness down at 141 he’s made the weight like a champ all year with no letdowns, having only lost to extremely tough competition. I like Chishko to make the quarters beating Pongracz and PReston before falling to Chishko, who I believe is a very difficult match up for McKenna. That sets up a round of 12 match against Steve Bleise who I have losing to to Ashnault then beating Sabatello and Mecate before falling short in the round of 12. I think Chishko will fare well against Bleise then lose to Micah (for about the 6th time in his college career).

Pretty tough draw for Tommy Thorn hitting Micah in round 2. Micah won handily at Big 10’s. I think Thorn will struggle to open Micah up consistently. So assuming Thorn falls there, he’ll have a borderline diabolical run on the backside. I have Gulibon knocking off Manley, which gives Thorn a match against Manley in his first wrestle back. Then I have him taking out Meredith (who beat him this year) and then Joey Ward, who is the only guy this year to beat Dean Heil! I need to stop typing before I talk myself out of this pick. After his win over Ward, I have him beating Preston then falling to Jack and Micah Jordan for 6th place.

Micah is an interesting guy. If there’s a surprise champ/finalist in this bunch it’s probably Micah. Early in the season through CKLV, he was a dynamo offensively. He was relentlessly attacking and scoring tons of takedowns (He’s not even 10% of his older brother on top) and looked good from underneath. However, I’ve seen that activity level decrease in a number of matches. If he’s not pushing the pace and attacking, and he doesn’t have an elite ride, it makes him tough to pick to go on a very deep run. So I see Micah going through Everett and Thorn before falling to Jack. This certainly is not a prediction I feel especially confident in. Jack is just a cool customer and I think he’s got a few different ways to win a match. In the round of 12 he’ll down Durso who I have losing to Ward on the top side. After beating Chishko we have another toss up match for Micah where he’ll face Anthony Ashnault. I think Ashnault gets it done this time. We’ll see another rematch at this weight and for the 2nd time this tournament I predict Micah will face and defeat Tommy Thorn for 5th place.

Micah at CKLV:

Shnaulty certainly mobbed on the Big 10 field. However, it cannot be overlooked that in his quest for the Big 10 title he didn’t face Micah Jordan or Tommy Thorn. That is far from his fault, but it does lead me to temper expectations a bit. His path to the semi’s looks great, especially with Manley potentially going down early. Last year Heil beat Ashnault pretty decisively at NCAA’s. However, most people accept that Ashnault was a bit banged up for that tournament. Ashnault has a great variety of leg attacks, which is something I look for while evaluating guys, a variety in your arsenal. He’s got a few turns on top as well. However, I don’t see him being able to finish on Heil nor do I think he can ride him. So he falls there. That said, Heil plays with fire wrestling a lot of very close matches. There’s a chance it burns him before Ashnault or in this match. I’m just not ready to predict it. I have Ashnault falling to Jack in the match for third. Another 50/50 type of match. I really, really love this weight.

Ashnault's Big 10 Win:

Mr. Cool Kevin Jack checks in for me in 3rd. Jack is a notoriously smooth operator who admits he doesn’t get rattled. Jack has all the tools to win a national title. He is outstanding on the mat, particularly on top. Jack can counter well with ankle scrambles and is able to finish on a high percentage of his attacks. Jack could take some losses along the way as his draw is less than ideal. I could see him in the blood round, or I could see him in the NCAA finals. After beating Sabatello in round one, Jack will reunite with his former Wolfpack teammate Bryce Meredith. While there’s some familiarity there, there’s a reason Meredith transferred, his name is Kevin Jack. So Jack will have a tough match against Jordan. I just love the variety in his game. Micah off an hour weigh in on Friday Morning could be an issue. If he has a good cut and recovery, the strength of Micah could be an issue for Jack. I think McKenna is a little too fundamental for Jack. As I say that, I recognize that Heil who is a funk master has now beaten McKenna twice, so perhaps that’s a flawed rationale. So I have Jack winning a 50/50 match against Micah before dropping one to McKenna and taking 3rd place over Ashnault.

I’m having a hard time with this weight, I can’t deny. On paper, Heil looks like the most vulnerable 1 seed of any weight. Especially with a match against Joey Ward potentially looming in the quarters. While he’s now lost to Ward twice, I think Heil will find a way this time. He may not win off a scramble, but rather a leg attack of his own. I don’t think he can afford to wait around against Ward again. Match ups do matter, but I think it is very close between those two. Heil figures it out this time. That sets up a match against Ashnault that I think is a decent match up for Heil. Ashnault will attack, and I think Heil can exploit. That sets up a final against McKenna. Much like Ward has had Heil’s number, you could say Heil has had McKenna’s. However it has been by the slimmest conceivable margins. McKenna has been a finish away from winning both matches. Maybe I’m foolish to make this prediction.

So that leads us to McKenna, my pick to win 141. Certainly it could run afoul in the semi’s against Jack (or Micah if he makes it). I just love the safety of his game. He’s so hard to open up and he’s got a great double and single leg. He actually is a great, high percentage finisher. It just doesn’t look like that against Heil. So what I’m essentially predicting is one finish. One shot by McKenna that Heil doesn’t counter. Just one. Freshman McKenna wins a title for Stanford.

Heil/McKenna 1

Heil/McKenna 2:

Ward's win over Heil: