Blair v. Graham for #1
St. Paris-Graham and Blair Academy. Perhaps no two programs have produced as many studs over the last decade or two than these two teams. Their annual dual is a collection of future college stars.
But this year is even more special.
Blair came in as the #1 team in the country, with SPG checking in at #4. But the Falcons left little doubt at Ironman when they blitzed the field that also included #2-Oak Park and #3-Wyoming Seminary.
Now we’re here: #1-Graham vs. #2-Blair for the lead in the National Title race.
The Graham youngsters (Mitch Moore, who won Ironman; Rocky Jordan, who beat Chaz Tucker; and Kyle Lawson) who have proven their legit sooner rather than later, has helped propel them to this status.
But what about their balance? And what bout their upper weights? The last four Graham upper weights combined to go just 2-8 at Ironman.
I was on record as saying Blair would undoubtedly win the dual with Graham.
But then this happened...
Mason Manville, one of the best high school wrestlers on planet earth, left Blair last week to train international styles.
And so that’s that, right? Graham certainly wins now?
Not so fast. While Manville’s services sure would have made it easier on the Buccaneers, I still have Blair as the winner here.
Below is a match-by-match analysis. It’s gonna come down to the wire.
And of course, you can catch it all live on FLO as #1 in the Nation is decided.
106: Jr. Justin Stickley, Graham vs. Fr. Matt Vinci, Blair
Ironman Result: Stickley placed 7th and his only losses were to two nationally ranked talents (Madrigal, Woods). Vinci went 1-2 and didn’t place.
Outlook: Stickley went on to win a solid Miami Valley tournament while Vinci went 1-2 at Beast. Graham will be looking for bonus in the opening weight classes and Stickley should start them off in the right direction.
Prediction: Stickley md. Vinci
Team Score: Graham 4-0
113: #3-So. Mitch Moore, Graham vs. #17-So. Zach Sherman
Ironman Result: Moore was the Champ, while Sherman was 8th.
Outlook: A month ago, this might have been considered a toss-up. But Moore went bananas at Ironman in one of the tournament’s most impressive performances that included two wins over Top 5 guys. Sherman went on to place 4th at the Beast. Although a Sherman win wouldn’t be earth-shattering, Moore goes in to the bout as the clear favorite.
Prediction: Moore dec. Sherman
Team Score: Graham 7-0
120: #7-Sr. Eli Stickley, Graham vs. Jr. Requir Van Der Merwe, Blair
Ironman Result: Stickley was the runner-up to Spencer Lee and beat two nationally ranked opponents (Mackall and Mueller). Van Der Merwe didn’t place losing to Mackall and Jake Newhouse.
Outlook: While Stickley is a clear pre-match/on-paper favorite, he took a loss to unranked Gage Branson at Miami. Van Der Merwe meanwhile, took 5th at the Beat where both losses (to state champ Jake Reigel and state 3rd Tyshawn White) were by a single point. Figure Stickley for a win, but it could be close. And remember, Van Der Merwe did knock off Stickley in last year’s dual.
Prediction: Stickley dec. Van Der Merwe
Team Score: Graham 10-0
126: #14-Sr. Eli Seipel, Graham vs. Fr. Andrew Monohan or Fr. Andrew Merola, Blair
Ironman Result: Seipel pinned Merola in the first round before beating two ranked opponents for the title. Merola went 2-2. Monohan wrestled at the Beast and went 2-2 with those losses coming to elite competition: 6-0 to Luke Karam, who went on to win the title, and Sammy Sasso, 6-2.
Outlook: Seipel also took a loss to an unranked opponent after Ironman. That being said, it’s more of an outlier. Seipel will be expected to get bonus here.
Prediction: Seipel md. Merola
Team Score: Graham 14-0
132: #14-Fr. Rocky Jordan, Graham vs. #6-Sr. Chaz Tucker, Blair
Ironman Result: In one of the biggest matches at Ironman, Jordan shocked Tucker 6-4. Jordan would end up 2nd, Tucker 3rd.
Outlook: Jordan got out to a 4-0 lead and kind of coasted after that. Tucker was constantly threatening to make a comeback. Which lead to two perspectives: 1. That Tucker was the better wrestler and would have won if he didn’t dig himself an early hole, and 2. That Jordan went out there, made things happen, and did what he had to do to win the match. While I can see both sides of the argument, I just can’t pick against the Senior Tucker, who will be hungry for redemption.
Prediction: Tucker dec. Jordan
Team Score: Graham 14-3
138: Fr. Ryan Thomas, Graham vs. #3-Sr. Matt Kolodzik, Blair
Ironman Result: Kolodzik made the finals for the 4th time and lost in OT. Thomas went 2-2 with losses to Will Verallis and David Carr.
Outlook: While Thomas is a Top 50 Freshmen talent, Kolodzik is one of America’s truly elite wrestlers. Kolodzik may or may not dominate on his feet, but I expect him to get in some serious top work.
Prediction: Kolodzik md. Thomas
Team Score: Graham 14-7
145: #10-Jr. Brent Moore, Graham vs. Sr. Michael Monica, Blair
Ironman Result: Moore beat Monica in the first round and ended up 4th. Monica went 3-2 and was a bout from placing.
Outlook: Moore had to rally to beat Monica, which shows the ability level of Monica, who also placed 6th at the Beast this year. But while I think it will be close, I don’t think Moore will be surprised this time. And, you gotta go with Moore based on longevity and consistency.
Prediction: Moore dec. Monica
Team Score: Graham 17-7
152: #20-So. Kyle Lawson, Graham vs. #3-Sr. Jordan Kutler, Blair
Ironman Result: Kutler’s only loss was to Vincenzo Joseph in placing 3rd. Lawson placed 7th.
Outlook: Lawson is among the best in the Sophomore class and has some fine wins in his career. But he’s a bit inconsistent at the moment, and Jordan Kutler has emerged as a juggernaut. His pressure and motor are impressive. Look for a 7-3-ish type win for him.
Prediction: Kutler dec. Lawson
Team Score: Graham 17-10
160: #2-Jr. Alex Marinelli, Graham vs. Fr. Ryan Karoly, Blair
Ironman Result: Marinelli shocked Manville in the finals and also beat the ranked Weiler and Schram prior to that. Karoly did not wrestle.
Outlook: Manville’s absent certainly throws a monkey wrench into the dual. While a Manville will here would be a net +6 for Blair, a Marinelli fall would be (if he lost to Manville) a +9 flip for the Falcons. Karoly is a fine FR prospect, but he’ll be ungunned and outsized here as Blair sacrifices this weight for better match-ups up the line.
Prediction: Marinelli fall Karoly
Team Score: Graham 23-10
170: Jr. Garrett Jordan, Graham vs. Sr. Peter Bearse or #8-Jr. Brandon Dallavia, Blair
Ironman Result: Dallavia didn’t look quite himself, but a Dallavia at 75% is still better than most in the country, and he still placed 3rd. Jordan was one of the more pleasant surprises of the tournament as he won five straight backside matches after losing in the first round. One of those wins was over double Fargo All-American Jacob Warner.
Outlook: This is a dilemma for Blair. Bearse placed 6th at the Beast, and is a rather capable wrestler, but that was at 160, and his road was otherwise fortuitous. Blair will want to figure out a way to take both 170 and 182. So who do they go with? That’s for them to decide. In my opinion, Bearse is a better wrestler than Bronne at 182, but will he be too undersized?
In the end, I think we’ll see Bearse here.
Prediction: Jordan dec. Bearse
Team Score: Graham 26-10
182: Sr. Hayden Bronne, Graham vs. Sr. Peter Bearse or #8-Jr. Brandon Dallavia, Blair
Ironman Result: Bronne went 0-2 and was teched and pinned. But it should be noted that both opponents were of significant quality. Chase Singletary was the entry for Blair at 182 for Ironman, but the Bucs will undoubtedly be bumping the rest of their line-up up.
Outlook: As stated above, it could be Bearse or Dallavia here. In this scenario, I’m going with Dallavia at 182. However, thinking it through, it’s probably a wash. On paper Blair loses one and gets bonus in the other. The only real question is: can Bearse pull out a win against either one, giving Blair a little kick.
Prediction: Dallavia md. Bronne
Team Score: Graham 26-14
195: So. Kavan Sarver, Graham vs. #12-So. Chase Singletary, Blair
Ironman Result: Sarver went 1-2 at Ironman and just DNP’d at Miami. Singletary placed 8th at Ironman, but that was in a weight where every placer was nationally ranked. He took 3rd at the Beast, losing only to Dylan Wisman.
Outlook: This is the start of the run where Blair will look to close out the dual with bonus points. Good chance it happens here.
Prediction: Singletary md. Sarver
Team Score: Graham 26-18
220: Jr. Brandon Hays, Graham vs. Jr. Neil Putman, Blair
Ironman Results: Hays went 0-2 getting majored and pinned. Putnam placed 7th (at 195) where both losses were to nationally ranked (Dylan Reynolds/Austin Flores) competition.
Outlook: Hays went on to go 1-2 at Miami Valley where he was pinned twice. Putnam placed 6th at the Beast, also at 195. Putnam is a solid wrestler even against national competition and I think he gets the fall here. It should be noted that Graham is without Josh Couchman. However, I don’t think that would matter much. If Couchman were in the line-up, Blair would but Showunmi on him and the net points of the final two bouts would, in all likelihood, be similar.
Prediction: Putnam fall Hays
Team Score: Graham 26-24
HWT: Jr. Dylan Nave, Graham vs. #15-Sr. David Showunmi, Blair
Ironman Result: Showunmi won the title at 220 while Nave went 1-2 getting pinned in his last two bouts.
Outlook: It’s a mismatch. Showunmi has turned in to an elite wrestler. He also took 3rd at the Beast at 220 where his only loss was in rideouts to Super 32 Champ Grayson. It’s 6 for the taking for Showunmi and Blair. The only caveat is that Showunmi is often slow-paced and passive. If the dual goes in such a way that he needs a pin for the dual win, he’ll have to do what he often doesn’t and push the pace to force a mistake.
Prediction: Showunmi fall Nave
Final Team Score: Blair 30-26
Final Thoughts -
For Graham: It’s almost a given that they’ll give up a boatload of bonus in the back half. For them to win, they’ll need to maximize bonus down low and through the middle. They’ll also probably need Rocky to beat Tucker again. The dual could hinge on it.
For Blair: It’s pretty clear. For Blair to win, they’ll need to weather the storm down low. How much have the lightweights progressed in the last month? In the Blair room, they typically do. Limit bonus through the first four weights and take care of business up top. The decision on who goes at 70 and 82 also looms. And, of course, Jordan-Tucker is equally pivotal to the Bucs, too.
St. Paris-Graham and Blair Academy. Perhaps no two programs have produced as many studs over the last decade or two than these two teams. Their annual dual is a collection of future college stars.
But this year is even more special.
Blair came in as the #1 team in the country, with SPG checking in at #4. But the Falcons left little doubt at Ironman when they blitzed the field that also included #2-Oak Park and #3-Wyoming Seminary.
Now we’re here: #1-Graham vs. #2-Blair for the lead in the National Title race.
The Graham youngsters (Mitch Moore, who won Ironman; Rocky Jordan, who beat Chaz Tucker; and Kyle Lawson) who have proven their legit sooner rather than later, has helped propel them to this status.
But what about their balance? And what bout their upper weights? The last four Graham upper weights combined to go just 2-8 at Ironman.
I was on record as saying Blair would undoubtedly win the dual with Graham.
But then this happened...
Mason Manville, one of the best high school wrestlers on planet earth, left Blair last week to train international styles.
And so that’s that, right? Graham certainly wins now?
Not so fast. While Manville’s services sure would have made it easier on the Buccaneers, I still have Blair as the winner here.
Below is a match-by-match analysis. It’s gonna come down to the wire.
And of course, you can catch it all live on FLO as #1 in the Nation is decided.
106: Jr. Justin Stickley, Graham vs. Fr. Matt Vinci, Blair
Ironman Result: Stickley placed 7th and his only losses were to two nationally ranked talents (Madrigal, Woods). Vinci went 1-2 and didn’t place.
Outlook: Stickley went on to win a solid Miami Valley tournament while Vinci went 1-2 at Beast. Graham will be looking for bonus in the opening weight classes and Stickley should start them off in the right direction.
Prediction: Stickley md. Vinci
Team Score: Graham 4-0
113: #3-So. Mitch Moore, Graham vs. #17-So. Zach Sherman
Ironman Result: Moore was the Champ, while Sherman was 8th.
Outlook: A month ago, this might have been considered a toss-up. But Moore went bananas at Ironman in one of the tournament’s most impressive performances that included two wins over Top 5 guys. Sherman went on to place 4th at the Beast. Although a Sherman win wouldn’t be earth-shattering, Moore goes in to the bout as the clear favorite.
Prediction: Moore dec. Sherman
Team Score: Graham 7-0
120: #7-Sr. Eli Stickley, Graham vs. Jr. Requir Van Der Merwe, Blair
Ironman Result: Stickley was the runner-up to Spencer Lee and beat two nationally ranked opponents (Mackall and Mueller). Van Der Merwe didn’t place losing to Mackall and Jake Newhouse.
Outlook: While Stickley is a clear pre-match/on-paper favorite, he took a loss to unranked Gage Branson at Miami. Van Der Merwe meanwhile, took 5th at the Beat where both losses (to state champ Jake Reigel and state 3rd Tyshawn White) were by a single point. Figure Stickley for a win, but it could be close. And remember, Van Der Merwe did knock off Stickley in last year’s dual.
Prediction: Stickley dec. Van Der Merwe
Team Score: Graham 10-0
126: #14-Sr. Eli Seipel, Graham vs. Fr. Andrew Monohan or Fr. Andrew Merola, Blair
Ironman Result: Seipel pinned Merola in the first round before beating two ranked opponents for the title. Merola went 2-2. Monohan wrestled at the Beast and went 2-2 with those losses coming to elite competition: 6-0 to Luke Karam, who went on to win the title, and Sammy Sasso, 6-2.
Outlook: Seipel also took a loss to an unranked opponent after Ironman. That being said, it’s more of an outlier. Seipel will be expected to get bonus here.
Prediction: Seipel md. Merola
Team Score: Graham 14-0
132: #14-Fr. Rocky Jordan, Graham vs. #6-Sr. Chaz Tucker, Blair
Ironman Result: In one of the biggest matches at Ironman, Jordan shocked Tucker 6-4. Jordan would end up 2nd, Tucker 3rd.
Outlook: Jordan got out to a 4-0 lead and kind of coasted after that. Tucker was constantly threatening to make a comeback. Which lead to two perspectives: 1. That Tucker was the better wrestler and would have won if he didn’t dig himself an early hole, and 2. That Jordan went out there, made things happen, and did what he had to do to win the match. While I can see both sides of the argument, I just can’t pick against the Senior Tucker, who will be hungry for redemption.
Prediction: Tucker dec. Jordan
Team Score: Graham 14-3
138: Fr. Ryan Thomas, Graham vs. #3-Sr. Matt Kolodzik, Blair
Ironman Result: Kolodzik made the finals for the 4th time and lost in OT. Thomas went 2-2 with losses to Will Verallis and David Carr.
Outlook: While Thomas is a Top 50 Freshmen talent, Kolodzik is one of America’s truly elite wrestlers. Kolodzik may or may not dominate on his feet, but I expect him to get in some serious top work.
Prediction: Kolodzik md. Thomas
Team Score: Graham 14-7
145: #10-Jr. Brent Moore, Graham vs. Sr. Michael Monica, Blair
Ironman Result: Moore beat Monica in the first round and ended up 4th. Monica went 3-2 and was a bout from placing.
Outlook: Moore had to rally to beat Monica, which shows the ability level of Monica, who also placed 6th at the Beast this year. But while I think it will be close, I don’t think Moore will be surprised this time. And, you gotta go with Moore based on longevity and consistency.
Prediction: Moore dec. Monica
Team Score: Graham 17-7
152: #20-So. Kyle Lawson, Graham vs. #3-Sr. Jordan Kutler, Blair
Ironman Result: Kutler’s only loss was to Vincenzo Joseph in placing 3rd. Lawson placed 7th.
Outlook: Lawson is among the best in the Sophomore class and has some fine wins in his career. But he’s a bit inconsistent at the moment, and Jordan Kutler has emerged as a juggernaut. His pressure and motor are impressive. Look for a 7-3-ish type win for him.
Prediction: Kutler dec. Lawson
Team Score: Graham 17-10
160: #2-Jr. Alex Marinelli, Graham vs. Fr. Ryan Karoly, Blair
Ironman Result: Marinelli shocked Manville in the finals and also beat the ranked Weiler and Schram prior to that. Karoly did not wrestle.
Outlook: Manville’s absent certainly throws a monkey wrench into the dual. While a Manville will here would be a net +6 for Blair, a Marinelli fall would be (if he lost to Manville) a +9 flip for the Falcons. Karoly is a fine FR prospect, but he’ll be ungunned and outsized here as Blair sacrifices this weight for better match-ups up the line.
Prediction: Marinelli fall Karoly
Team Score: Graham 23-10
170: Jr. Garrett Jordan, Graham vs. Sr. Peter Bearse or #8-Jr. Brandon Dallavia, Blair
Ironman Result: Dallavia didn’t look quite himself, but a Dallavia at 75% is still better than most in the country, and he still placed 3rd. Jordan was one of the more pleasant surprises of the tournament as he won five straight backside matches after losing in the first round. One of those wins was over double Fargo All-American Jacob Warner.
Outlook: This is a dilemma for Blair. Bearse placed 6th at the Beast, and is a rather capable wrestler, but that was at 160, and his road was otherwise fortuitous. Blair will want to figure out a way to take both 170 and 182. So who do they go with? That’s for them to decide. In my opinion, Bearse is a better wrestler than Bronne at 182, but will he be too undersized?
In the end, I think we’ll see Bearse here.
Prediction: Jordan dec. Bearse
Team Score: Graham 26-10
182: Sr. Hayden Bronne, Graham vs. Sr. Peter Bearse or #8-Jr. Brandon Dallavia, Blair
Ironman Result: Bronne went 0-2 and was teched and pinned. But it should be noted that both opponents were of significant quality. Chase Singletary was the entry for Blair at 182 for Ironman, but the Bucs will undoubtedly be bumping the rest of their line-up up.
Outlook: As stated above, it could be Bearse or Dallavia here. In this scenario, I’m going with Dallavia at 182. However, thinking it through, it’s probably a wash. On paper Blair loses one and gets bonus in the other. The only real question is: can Bearse pull out a win against either one, giving Blair a little kick.
Prediction: Dallavia md. Bronne
Team Score: Graham 26-14
195: So. Kavan Sarver, Graham vs. #12-So. Chase Singletary, Blair
Ironman Result: Sarver went 1-2 at Ironman and just DNP’d at Miami. Singletary placed 8th at Ironman, but that was in a weight where every placer was nationally ranked. He took 3rd at the Beast, losing only to Dylan Wisman.
Outlook: This is the start of the run where Blair will look to close out the dual with bonus points. Good chance it happens here.
Prediction: Singletary md. Sarver
Team Score: Graham 26-18
220: Jr. Brandon Hays, Graham vs. Jr. Neil Putman, Blair
Ironman Results: Hays went 0-2 getting majored and pinned. Putnam placed 7th (at 195) where both losses were to nationally ranked (Dylan Reynolds/Austin Flores) competition.
Outlook: Hays went on to go 1-2 at Miami Valley where he was pinned twice. Putnam placed 6th at the Beast, also at 195. Putnam is a solid wrestler even against national competition and I think he gets the fall here. It should be noted that Graham is without Josh Couchman. However, I don’t think that would matter much. If Couchman were in the line-up, Blair would but Showunmi on him and the net points of the final two bouts would, in all likelihood, be similar.
Prediction: Putnam fall Hays
Team Score: Graham 26-24
HWT: Jr. Dylan Nave, Graham vs. #15-Sr. David Showunmi, Blair
Ironman Result: Showunmi won the title at 220 while Nave went 1-2 getting pinned in his last two bouts.
Outlook: It’s a mismatch. Showunmi has turned in to an elite wrestler. He also took 3rd at the Beast at 220 where his only loss was in rideouts to Super 32 Champ Grayson. It’s 6 for the taking for Showunmi and Blair. The only caveat is that Showunmi is often slow-paced and passive. If the dual goes in such a way that he needs a pin for the dual win, he’ll have to do what he often doesn’t and push the pace to force a mistake.
Prediction: Showunmi fall Nave
Final Team Score: Blair 30-26
Final Thoughts -
For Graham: It’s almost a given that they’ll give up a boatload of bonus in the back half. For them to win, they’ll need to maximize bonus down low and through the middle. They’ll also probably need Rocky to beat Tucker again. The dual could hinge on it.
For Blair: It’s pretty clear. For Blair to win, they’ll need to weather the storm down low. How much have the lightweights progressed in the last month? In the Blair room, they typically do. Limit bonus through the first four weights and take care of business up top. The decision on who goes at 70 and 82 also looms. And, of course, Jordan-Tucker is equally pivotal to the Bucs, too.