Round 1 Landmines!
Christian Pyles
Get the best wrestlers in the country, throw em in a bracket. Some studs are bound to hit early. They definitely are today in OKC.
These aren’t necessarily my upset picks. But there the “high alert” matches where upsets are most likely to occur.
For the most part I won’t site a 15 or 16 losing to someone. At that point the resume’s are quite similar and an unseeded guy getting a win there should shock nobody.
125: Could see a big upset here.
Bout #15: Nick Roberts-Ohio State v. #5 Dylan Peters-UNI-Peters has been a rock all year. However, the difference between Peters and Roberts is not as vast as the seeds may suggest. Consistency has been in issue for Roberts all year. He had a fine showing at Big 10’s. If Roberts can go 7 minutes of Peters pace, he’s got the technical goods to hang. Holding up to the pressure will be key.
Bout #17: Earl Hall-ISU v. #13 Evan Silver-Stanford-Though Hall has faltered lately, he’s still unquestionably dangerous. If he’s the guy we saw at Vegas, Silver could be in big trouble here. Hall’s re-attacks are nasty, he’s got big moves as well.
Bout #18: Nathan Kraisser-UNC v. #4 Josh Martinez-Air Force-If I’m coaching Air Force, I’m sure not thrilled about having Kraisser in rd 1. Kraisser beat him last year and just won ACC’s. If he has that confidence back and is the guy he was last year, it could be spell upset. Kraisser is great at countering and is nasty on top. Martinez will need to finish efficiently and watch the dive-rolls.
133: This weight doesn’t have that round one upset potential really, but there are some top seeded guys who will get tested way more than you’d expect in a round 1 match.
Bout #27-Vincent Dellefave-Rutgers v. #1 Joe Colon-UNI-Ok, settle down. I’m just saying, it was 1-0 last time these two wrestled back at Vegas. That’s worth mentioning for a round 1 matchup, right!?
Bout #34-Jimmy Gulibon-PSU v. #4 Jon Morrison-Oklahoma State- Morrison has never been remotely tested by Jimmy, but it’s still worth mentioning as Gulibon is quality.
Bout #39-Dennis Gustafson-VT v. #7 Cashe Quiroga-Again, it’s not about if he can pull it off, it’s if he’ll be tested. Rumors have swirled about Cashe struggling with his weight. First match of the day. Down to weight. The scrappy Freshman could prove to be a handful for the enigmatic Boilermaker.
141: Similar to 133, a few hammers will get tested, but that “wow” upset may not happen.
Bout #51-Ugi Khishignyam-Citadel v. #3 Zain Retherford-PSU-I know. I said it was disrespectful to suggest Ugi as a likely upset. I still feel that way. But seriously, this is not the round 1 match you want if you’re picking among the unseeded guys. Ugi is a tremendous athlete. He’s a great scrambler, savvy positionally and surprisingly tough to ride. He was 4th a year ago. I’m not sure he’s the same guy, but he’s still a handful.
Bout #55-Mike Nevinger-Cornell v. #7 Zach Horan-CMU-Nevinger was not healthy at EIWA’s. I’m not sure that will be rectified by NCAA’s. However, if he’s 85% of what he was, he will challenge Horan. Horan has been solid all year. Not too low, but not too high either. Combine that with the fact that Nevinger has been amazing at NCAA’s the last 2 years and you’ve got a potential upset in the works.
149: I think we’ll see some seeded guys fall here. Some high quality unseeded guys here.
Bout #61- Michael DePalma-KSU v. #9 Eric Grajales-Michigan-Pretty obvious one. DePalma beat Grajales by 4 earlier this year. I think Grajales more/less has it together, but you never know with him.
Bout #64-James English-PSU v. #12 Dylan Cottrell-As I mentioned before, being 26-1 and a 12 seed speaks to your level of competition. English hasn’t been great, but he’s nothing if not battle tested.
Bout #67-Mike Racciato-Pittsburgh v. #3 Chris Villalonga-Cornell-Deep down Villalonga is a bit too fundamental to get mixed up with Racciato’s stuff. However, it only takes one slip up against Racciato, who has had a fantastic True Freshman campaign.
Bout #69-Ian Paddock-Ohio State v. #11 Josh Kindig-Oklahoma State-Kindig has had a fine season, but he’s never delivered at NCAA’s for the Cowboys. While I feel like he’s improved this year, Paddock is a very tough out; stingy defensively and skilled on the mat.
157: A few very interesting round 1 matchups here.
Bout #78-Markus Scheidel-Columbia v. #8 RJ Pena-Oregon State-Well nobody wanted this kid in round 1 after the EIWA tourney he had. Upsetting Realbuto and Napoli in back to back matches tells you all you need to know. Pena is streaky, and I think Scheidel could give him problems from neutral.
Bout #80-Tristan Warner-ODU v. #12 Luke Smith-CMU-Warner beat Smith 6-2 in February (their last meeting). Warner is dangerous on top and a very tough guy to take down. Smith is also a bit overrated as the 12 seed as well.
Bout #81-Brian Murphy-Michigan v. #13 Dylan Alton-PSU-I’m just mentioning this one because it has such enormous team ramifications. He lost to Murphy at B1G's. Regardless of who Murphy drew as an unseeded guy he was a nightmare matchup. He’s beaten Ness and Alton and has hung with the best in the country. Actually, why wasn’t he seeded? Nevermind..
Bout #88-Anthony Perrotti-Rutgers v. #10 Blaise Butler-UVA-I love watching Butler, but have to admit he is prone to a weird loss here and there. Perrotti is super tough and just beat Brian Realbuto. Butler better have it all together for this one.
165: Just keepin’ it 100, this weight is not very strong after #5 or so. What does that mean? Lot’s of perceived “upsets” when seeded guys fall to unseeded guys who are simply not that far behind.
Bout #95-Josh Veltre-Bloomsburg v. #5 Nick Moore-Iowa-Veltre ended Moore’s season last year with an 8-5 win. Veltre has not had a great year, and Moore has been extremely consistent. Still a hairy matchup for round 1.
Bout #102-Peyton Walsh-Navy v. #6 Corey Mock-UTC-These two hit earlier at the Navy Classic where it was just a 3-2 win for Mock. Walsh has been tough this year and beat Mike Moreno at the Scuffle.
Bout #103-Zach Toal-Missouri v. #7 Pierce Harger-Not sure how Harger gets the 7 after losing twice to Zilverberg, but that’s neither here nor there. Toal ended Harger’s season a year ago at NCAA’s with a 4-2 win. Two guys who wrestle within themselves and aren’t terribly risk-averse. Definitely some upset potential here.
174: Honestly, looking around here I don’t see much going on. The top 6 are so good and so separated from the rest of the field that there’s essentially no chance of a big upset here. From 7 on, the draws seem collectively fortuitous for the seeded guys. Am I sleeping on someone? Let me know.
184: Not much going on here. The big guns won’t be tested. This isn’t a terribly deep weight compared with others.
Bout #132-Lucas Sheridan-Indiana v. #14 John Rizqallah-MSU-Sheridan knocked off Rizqallah earlier this year. Rizqallah got him back recently, but this is one of the seeded matches I can see going the other way.
197: Couple shots at some upsets here. The big dogs look safe to me, but there are a few seeded guys who will have their hands full.
Bout #141-Cody Reed-Binghamton v. #9 Christian Boley-Maryland- I think Cody Reed made a New Years Resolution to lose less, because he’s 16-1 in 2014 and has wins over Daniel Mitchell, James Fox, Frank Mattiace and Bryce Barnes. He looked excellent at EIWA’s (where he was a few seconds from knocking off Bennett). Boley has been inconsistent and somehow still wound up a 9 seed. Christian fell to Mattiace and Penny earlier this year and lost to Conner Hartmann and Zach Nye at ACC’s. So Boley isn’t exactly coming in hot.
Bout #152-Conner Hartmann v. #10 Jace Bennett-Cornell-I mentioned that I thought Jace’s 10 seed was unwarranted. Jace had 1 win over a seeded wrestler, #14 Chris Penny. Conversely Hartmann has wins over #9 Boley, #16 Polizzi as well as Brandon Palik and Nick Bonaccorsi. I’m not even sure if this can be considered an upset so much as it is a seeding blunder.
285: One to maybe keep your eye on. However, the hammers are hammers for a reason. This weights upper echelon as as strong and deep as any.
Bout #160 Dawson Peck-UTC v. #12 Spencer Myers-Maryland-Two guys who haven’t been notified they're heavyweights and are supposed to wrestle accordingly. Peck is hysterically tall, and very solid on top and in scrambles. Myers will have the edge on his feet and is the favorite. I just think it’ll be a fun match more than anything.
That's what I came up with! Let me know the landmines you've spotted!
Christian Pyles
Get the best wrestlers in the country, throw em in a bracket. Some studs are bound to hit early. They definitely are today in OKC.
These aren’t necessarily my upset picks. But there the “high alert” matches where upsets are most likely to occur.
For the most part I won’t site a 15 or 16 losing to someone. At that point the resume’s are quite similar and an unseeded guy getting a win there should shock nobody.
125: Could see a big upset here.
Bout #15: Nick Roberts-Ohio State v. #5 Dylan Peters-UNI-Peters has been a rock all year. However, the difference between Peters and Roberts is not as vast as the seeds may suggest. Consistency has been in issue for Roberts all year. He had a fine showing at Big 10’s. If Roberts can go 7 minutes of Peters pace, he’s got the technical goods to hang. Holding up to the pressure will be key.
Bout #17: Earl Hall-ISU v. #13 Evan Silver-Stanford-Though Hall has faltered lately, he’s still unquestionably dangerous. If he’s the guy we saw at Vegas, Silver could be in big trouble here. Hall’s re-attacks are nasty, he’s got big moves as well.
Bout #18: Nathan Kraisser-UNC v. #4 Josh Martinez-Air Force-If I’m coaching Air Force, I’m sure not thrilled about having Kraisser in rd 1. Kraisser beat him last year and just won ACC’s. If he has that confidence back and is the guy he was last year, it could be spell upset. Kraisser is great at countering and is nasty on top. Martinez will need to finish efficiently and watch the dive-rolls.
133: This weight doesn’t have that round one upset potential really, but there are some top seeded guys who will get tested way more than you’d expect in a round 1 match.
Bout #27-Vincent Dellefave-Rutgers v. #1 Joe Colon-UNI-Ok, settle down. I’m just saying, it was 1-0 last time these two wrestled back at Vegas. That’s worth mentioning for a round 1 matchup, right!?
Bout #34-Jimmy Gulibon-PSU v. #4 Jon Morrison-Oklahoma State- Morrison has never been remotely tested by Jimmy, but it’s still worth mentioning as Gulibon is quality.
Bout #39-Dennis Gustafson-VT v. #7 Cashe Quiroga-Again, it’s not about if he can pull it off, it’s if he’ll be tested. Rumors have swirled about Cashe struggling with his weight. First match of the day. Down to weight. The scrappy Freshman could prove to be a handful for the enigmatic Boilermaker.
141: Similar to 133, a few hammers will get tested, but that “wow” upset may not happen.
Bout #51-Ugi Khishignyam-Citadel v. #3 Zain Retherford-PSU-I know. I said it was disrespectful to suggest Ugi as a likely upset. I still feel that way. But seriously, this is not the round 1 match you want if you’re picking among the unseeded guys. Ugi is a tremendous athlete. He’s a great scrambler, savvy positionally and surprisingly tough to ride. He was 4th a year ago. I’m not sure he’s the same guy, but he’s still a handful.
Bout #55-Mike Nevinger-Cornell v. #7 Zach Horan-CMU-Nevinger was not healthy at EIWA’s. I’m not sure that will be rectified by NCAA’s. However, if he’s 85% of what he was, he will challenge Horan. Horan has been solid all year. Not too low, but not too high either. Combine that with the fact that Nevinger has been amazing at NCAA’s the last 2 years and you’ve got a potential upset in the works.
149: I think we’ll see some seeded guys fall here. Some high quality unseeded guys here.
Bout #61- Michael DePalma-KSU v. #9 Eric Grajales-Michigan-Pretty obvious one. DePalma beat Grajales by 4 earlier this year. I think Grajales more/less has it together, but you never know with him.
Bout #64-James English-PSU v. #12 Dylan Cottrell-As I mentioned before, being 26-1 and a 12 seed speaks to your level of competition. English hasn’t been great, but he’s nothing if not battle tested.
Bout #67-Mike Racciato-Pittsburgh v. #3 Chris Villalonga-Cornell-Deep down Villalonga is a bit too fundamental to get mixed up with Racciato’s stuff. However, it only takes one slip up against Racciato, who has had a fantastic True Freshman campaign.
Bout #69-Ian Paddock-Ohio State v. #11 Josh Kindig-Oklahoma State-Kindig has had a fine season, but he’s never delivered at NCAA’s for the Cowboys. While I feel like he’s improved this year, Paddock is a very tough out; stingy defensively and skilled on the mat.
157: A few very interesting round 1 matchups here.
Bout #78-Markus Scheidel-Columbia v. #8 RJ Pena-Oregon State-Well nobody wanted this kid in round 1 after the EIWA tourney he had. Upsetting Realbuto and Napoli in back to back matches tells you all you need to know. Pena is streaky, and I think Scheidel could give him problems from neutral.
Bout #80-Tristan Warner-ODU v. #12 Luke Smith-CMU-Warner beat Smith 6-2 in February (their last meeting). Warner is dangerous on top and a very tough guy to take down. Smith is also a bit overrated as the 12 seed as well.
Bout #81-Brian Murphy-Michigan v. #13 Dylan Alton-PSU-I’m just mentioning this one because it has such enormous team ramifications. He lost to Murphy at B1G's. Regardless of who Murphy drew as an unseeded guy he was a nightmare matchup. He’s beaten Ness and Alton and has hung with the best in the country. Actually, why wasn’t he seeded? Nevermind..
Bout #88-Anthony Perrotti-Rutgers v. #10 Blaise Butler-UVA-I love watching Butler, but have to admit he is prone to a weird loss here and there. Perrotti is super tough and just beat Brian Realbuto. Butler better have it all together for this one.
165: Just keepin’ it 100, this weight is not very strong after #5 or so. What does that mean? Lot’s of perceived “upsets” when seeded guys fall to unseeded guys who are simply not that far behind.
Bout #95-Josh Veltre-Bloomsburg v. #5 Nick Moore-Iowa-Veltre ended Moore’s season last year with an 8-5 win. Veltre has not had a great year, and Moore has been extremely consistent. Still a hairy matchup for round 1.
Bout #102-Peyton Walsh-Navy v. #6 Corey Mock-UTC-These two hit earlier at the Navy Classic where it was just a 3-2 win for Mock. Walsh has been tough this year and beat Mike Moreno at the Scuffle.
Bout #103-Zach Toal-Missouri v. #7 Pierce Harger-Not sure how Harger gets the 7 after losing twice to Zilverberg, but that’s neither here nor there. Toal ended Harger’s season a year ago at NCAA’s with a 4-2 win. Two guys who wrestle within themselves and aren’t terribly risk-averse. Definitely some upset potential here.
174: Honestly, looking around here I don’t see much going on. The top 6 are so good and so separated from the rest of the field that there’s essentially no chance of a big upset here. From 7 on, the draws seem collectively fortuitous for the seeded guys. Am I sleeping on someone? Let me know.
184: Not much going on here. The big guns won’t be tested. This isn’t a terribly deep weight compared with others.
Bout #132-Lucas Sheridan-Indiana v. #14 John Rizqallah-MSU-Sheridan knocked off Rizqallah earlier this year. Rizqallah got him back recently, but this is one of the seeded matches I can see going the other way.
197: Couple shots at some upsets here. The big dogs look safe to me, but there are a few seeded guys who will have their hands full.
Bout #141-Cody Reed-Binghamton v. #9 Christian Boley-Maryland- I think Cody Reed made a New Years Resolution to lose less, because he’s 16-1 in 2014 and has wins over Daniel Mitchell, James Fox, Frank Mattiace and Bryce Barnes. He looked excellent at EIWA’s (where he was a few seconds from knocking off Bennett). Boley has been inconsistent and somehow still wound up a 9 seed. Christian fell to Mattiace and Penny earlier this year and lost to Conner Hartmann and Zach Nye at ACC’s. So Boley isn’t exactly coming in hot.
Bout #152-Conner Hartmann v. #10 Jace Bennett-Cornell-I mentioned that I thought Jace’s 10 seed was unwarranted. Jace had 1 win over a seeded wrestler, #14 Chris Penny. Conversely Hartmann has wins over #9 Boley, #16 Polizzi as well as Brandon Palik and Nick Bonaccorsi. I’m not even sure if this can be considered an upset so much as it is a seeding blunder.
285: One to maybe keep your eye on. However, the hammers are hammers for a reason. This weights upper echelon as as strong and deep as any.
Bout #160 Dawson Peck-UTC v. #12 Spencer Myers-Maryland-Two guys who haven’t been notified they're heavyweights and are supposed to wrestle accordingly. Peck is hysterically tall, and very solid on top and in scrambles. Myers will have the edge on his feet and is the favorite. I just think it’ll be a fun match more than anything.
That's what I came up with! Let me know the landmines you've spotted!