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Big Ten Championships 2014

Fi: CP's Ultimate Big 10 Breakdown

Fi: CP's Ultimate Big 10 Breakdown

Mar 3, 2014 by Christian Pyles
Fi: CP's Ultimate Big 10 Breakdown
The Ultimate Big 10 Preview

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The Ultimate Big 10 Preview
Christian Pyles

Big 10’s this weekend! Get excited people! In this preview I’m going to give you a write up on how I see things going through the bracket up until a champ is crowned.

You’ll see how many qualifiers each weight has earned as well as my final predictions of the qualifiers. In addition to final placements, I’ll give you my tiers which are a spacial representation of how I view the weights.  Space between guys represents a gap in ability.   Losing to someone within your tier doesn't surprise me.  If you lose to someone outside your tier, I'd be pretty surprised.  

125
Automatic Qualifiers: 7

Pre Seeds:
  1. Nico Megaludis, PSU
  2. Jesse Delgado, ILL
  3. Cory Clark, IOWA
  4. Bradley Taylor, WIS
  5. Conor Youtsey, MICH
  6. Tim Lambert, NEB
  7. Camden Eppert, PUR
  8. Nick Roberts, OSU

What a dramatic weight this has been this year. Don’t expect much to change now that the post season is here. Three guys with a shot here at the title here. With Nico as the top seed I think he’ll have a very favorable draw considering he’s likely looking at Bradley Taylor of Wisconsin in the semi’s. I think he has no trouble and cruises to the finals.

The bottom half of the bracket gets quite interesting when we’ll see Cory Clark of Iowa likely face Jesse Delgado in the semi finals. Whoever Iowa puts out there against Delgado will be an intriguing matchup considering both Thomas Gilman and Cory Clark have beaten Delgado before.

We’ve seen Delgado take some mis-steps in the regular season before but we know he’s bringing heat once the post-season arrives. I think Clark v. Delgado will feature a more assertive Delgado early. At times Jesse can hang back and wait to counter, but having dropped a match to Clark last year (by a score of 6-1) I think he looks for that first period takedown. Both guys are good scramblers, but I don’t think Clark has been in the fire enough. Delgado will remind us why he’s the Champ in this match and crash the finals.

So I believe we will see Delgado take on Megaludis for the umpteenth time. Last time these two hit it was a crazy close match with a little helping of home cooking for Nico to get the win over Delgado. The trend the last two matches has been Nico being the aggressor, getting to legs but struggling to finish. That’s what happened in their match at NCAA’s last year where the offense was all Nico’s, but Delgado’s counter was the difference. We saw similar pace and aggression from Nico in the dual as well, but he was struggling to get to the legs and finish.

Nico was my preseason pick to win it all, and honestly I like the way he’s been trending. To be honest I don’t feel particularly strong about either guy winning, but I lean toward the guy who will bring aggression and frequent attacks. In most matches that’s Delgado, however, Nico seems to have the hand fighting and positioning and motion to keep Jesse off his legs. Give me Nico by a hair.

CP’s 125 Predictions and Tiers:

1. Nico Megaludis
2. Jesse Delgado
3. Cory Clark


4. Bradley Taylor

5. Connor Youtsey
6. Tim Lambert
7. Nick Roberts

133
Automatic Qualifiers-8

Pre Seeds
  1. Tony Ramos, IOWA
  2. Tyler Graff, WIS
  3. David Thorn, MINN
  4. Cashe Quiroga, PUR
  5. Zane Richards, ILL
  6. Johnni DiJulius, OSU
  7. Jimmy Gulibon, PSU
  8. Rossi Bruno, MICH
  9. Shawn Nagel, NEB
  10. Dom Malone, NU
  11. Joe Duca, IND
  12. Garth Yenter, MSU

Think we’re on a collision course for Ramos v. Graff 4? Maybe. Personally, I’ve been extremely impressed with David Thorn lately. He wrestles with breakneck pace and looks to score early and often. He especially impressed with his 8-5 win over DiJulius in a match that wasn’t near as close as the score indicated. It’s a filthy field here, to be honest but I really think Ramos and Graff are a notch above the rest. Even Thorn.

The top semi will likely be Ramos and Quiroga. Cashe will take on Richards in the quarters, and laid a beating on him earlier this year with a 19-6 win. Quiroga is crazy under the radar here but a great talent. Ramos will beat him, but he won’t blow him out. Probably looking at a 4-6 point win. Quiroga is an insanely powerful and athletic 133 and that can slow Ramos down a tad. Still, technically Tony is on another level.

The bottom half is quite interesting. We’ll likely have a Gulibon v. Graff Quarter as well as a Thorn v. DiJulius quarter. I think Graff is a bad matchup for Gulibon. Tyler his too gifted from neutral, and though we’ve seen Graff have some issues from underneath against Colon and Schopp, Gulibon isn’t in that conversation from top as of yet. I’ll take Graff by a pair. Thorn beat JDJ soundly at National Duals. I was surprised by the athletic and strength disparity. I’ll Take Thorn again, albeit a little closer.

David Thorn may well be the sexy pick to win here the way he’s been trending, but I’ll pump the brakes a bit here for the fans of the Thornado. Historically he’s struggled with Graff with a current 0-3 record against him. I’ll grant Thorn that he’s narrowed the gap, but I don’t think he has the neutral game to take Graff down. Yes, Graff has gassed before, but during the Big 10 semis he should be plenty hydrated and ready to go. Graff gets his takedown and hangs on to make the final.

So we get Graff v. Ramos. I like Tony here. We know it will be close. Tony has shown he can win the close ones against Graff before, and I think he does it again. I think Ramos will look to get his attacks off earlier than he has before. As always, the pace will be pushed.

CP’s 133 Prediction and Tiers:

1. Tony Ramos
2. Tyler Graff

3. David Thorn

4. Johnni DiJulius
5. Cashe Quiroga

6. Jimmy Gulibon
7. Zane Richards
8. Rossi Bruno

141
Automatic Qualifiers-6

Pre Seeds
  1. Zain Retherford, PSU
  2. Logan Stieber, OSU
  3. Chris Dardanes, MINN
  4. Stephen Dutton, MICH
  5. Josh Dziewa, IOWA
  6. Steven Rodrigues, ILL
  7. Danny Sabatello, PUR
  8. Jessie Thielke, WIS

One of the most talked about weights this year, and it’s mainly because of your top two seeds here. Especially this pesky True Freshman who has no interest in playing 2nd fiddle for any amount of time to anyone.

With only 6 spots available there’s going to be some quality guys left at home when it’s time to head to OKC.
Zain Retherford announced himself with a SV win over Logan Stieber during their dual. Much speculation then followed as to whether Zain was really “on that level” or of Logan was simply not 100%. Throw in some officiating controversy and you’ve got a recipe for a dynamite rematch!

The Dutton v. Dziewa rematch in the quarterfinals will be one Iowa fans look to and highlight. If Iowa wants to make a run, they need Dziewa to have a big day. I think he gets it done against Dutton here.

In the respective semi finals I think the top seeds cruise. Zain will control a 4-2, 5-2 type of win against Dziewa who does not have the neutral game or turns to give Zain problems (yes, I know he took down Zain in the dual, won’t happen again). On the bottom half, I don’t expect much deviation for Logan from his National Duals beating he already laid on Chris Dardanes

Now to the final! I think Logan comes out and looks for that early TD and will dedicate a bit more to the ride. In the dual he got the TD, then an arm bar got blown for potentially dangerous. On the restart Logan wasn’t able to hold Zain down, and almost looked content to cut him loose and work more from his feet. Lesson learned. Though Zain is tremendously advanced in every area, I think Logan this time around gives him some problems from top.

Zain is extremely hard to takedown because once you get on his legs he is such a tremendous scrambler. Logan has shown he can finish on him. Logan will be 100% ready, I like Logan, and not by a little. I think he sends a message to the field that he’s the man to beat at 141. I think a turn is possible, and I see Logan getting away from bottom. Takedowns will be had for Logan as well.

CP’s 141 Predictions and Tiers:

1. Logan Stieber

2. Zain Retherford



3. Chris Dardanes
4. Josh Dziewa
5. Stephen Dutton

6. Danny Sabatello

149
Automatic Qualifiers-6

Pre Seeds
  1. Jake Sueflohn, NEB
  2. Nick Dardanes, MINN
  3. Jason Tsirtsis, NU
  4. Brody Grothus, IOWA
  5. Eric Grajales, MICH
  6. Ian Paddock, OSU
  7. James English, PSU
  8. Brandon Nelsen, PUR

Making sense of how to seed this weight was pretty tough. Sueflohn lost to Tsirtsis but beat Grajales. Grajales beat Dardanes. Grothus beat Tsirtsis and Dardanes. It’s all a big mess. I thought the 1 would go to Nick Dardanes, but I think it’s completely fair that Sueflohn got it as well.

6 spots here available. Coach Sanderson must be feeling quite confident in English, who would really have very little chance at a wildcard bid if he finishes outside the top 6. He’s a nightmare draw, however, and as the 7 seed, I’d be lying if I said I didn’t think he had an outside shot at knocking off Dardanes. Him getting the vote of confidence from Cael I think speaks volumes.

That’s the quarter that intrigues me the most as far as a potential upset. Grothus and Grajales combined for 31 points in a match Grothus found a way to win. That’s the “Getcha Popcorn Ready” match for the quarters.

In my heart of hearts I see things going fairly chalk at 149 with Sueflohn taking on Grothus and Dardanes taking on Tsirtsis. I really think Tsirtsis is ready to cement himself as the guy at this weight. He fell to Dardanes earlier this year, but I think he’s at a different level right now. Jason had a rough Midlands. Simple as that. He will be ready, and I like him to take out Dardanes here and land himself in the finals.

He’ll face the winner of Sueflohn and Grothus. I think Sueflohn is a bad matchup for Grothus. I don’t see Brody able to out-scramble Sueflohn, nor do I see any of his top game playing much of a role. I like by 3 or so here to meet Tsirtsis for a rematch.

Tsirtsis was the winner 3-2 earlier this year. Tsirtsis is a defensive wunderkind and an opportunistic attacker who knows how to finish. He had some rough spots earlier, but I like the way he’s trending. Give me little Tshirts for the Big 10 title.

CP’s 149 Predictions and Tiers

1. Jason Tsirtsis
2. Jake Sueflohn
3. Nick Dardanes

4. Brody Grothus
5. Eric Grajales
6. James English

157
Automatic Qualifiers-8

Pre Seeds
  1. Isaac Jordan, WIS
  2. James Green, NEB
  3. Dylan Ness, MINN
  4. Derek St. John, IOWA
  5. Dylan Alton, PSU
  6. Taylor Walsh, IND
  7. Zac Brunson, ILL
  8. Brian Murphy, MICH
  9. Alex Griffin, PUR
  10. Ben Sullivan, NU
  11. Randy Languis, OSU
  12. Roger Wildmo, MSU

Holy smokes what a weight class. I think the seeding committee got it right ultimately.

We’ll have some dynamite matchups from the quarters on! Top seeded Isaac Jordan will take on the super tough True Freshman Brian Murphy of Michigan. Murphy has been right there with Alton and Green and even knocked off Dylan Ness. I like Jordan but believe me it’s going to be a 1 or 2 point match. Green should have no issue with Brunson in his quarter. We didn’t get to see the Ness v. Walsh matchup when the two teams dualed, but we’ll see it likely in the quarter-finals! I think Ness is just a little bit better at the things Walsh does and will ultimately win. DSJ v. Alton is always tight, but I like DSJ to do what he’s done in the previous 4 meetings. Win.

So the semi’s are set and loaded. I like DSJ to break his tie with Isaac Jordan and get the win to make the finals. Look for him to try to get that early offense going instead of waiting Jordan out. That won’t work this time around. I like DSJ by a point.

On the bottom half, I’m fully expecting pure insanity between Green and Ness. Both outcomes are extremely possible, and I wouldn’t bat an eye if Green lit him up, or if Ness stuck him. Green faltered crossing the finish line here at the end of the regular season needing Tiebreakers to beat Salazar (Michigan’s backup) and falling to Jordan.

I think we’ll see the Green we saw most of the season and finds a way to win to make his 2nd Big 10 final.

In the final match, I think Green takes care of business against St. John. DSJ has come up empty the last two meetings against Green. Green was too much from his own offense as well as his counter offense. He’s shored up some of his tank issues that had plagued him in the past. Give me Green!

CP’s 157 Predictions and Tiers

1. James Green
2. Derek St. John
3. Dylan Ness
4. Isaac Jordan

5. Dylan Alton
6. Taylor Walsh

7. Brian Murphy
8. Zac Brunson



165
Automatic Qualifiers-8

Pre Seeds
  1. David Taylor, PSU
  2. Nick Moore, IOWA
  3. Pierce Harger, NU
  4. Dan Yates, MICH
  5. Jackson Morse, ILL
  6. Danny Zilverberg, MINN
  7. Ryan LeBlanc, IND
  8. Austin Wilson, NEB
  9. Pat Robinson, PUR
  10. Joe Grandominico, OSU
  11. Bobby Nash, MSU
  12. Ben Cox, WIS
One of the less confusing weights. The pecking orders are fairly well established here for sure and I don’t expect much deviation from what we’ve seen all year. Sending 8 from this weight seems like a lot, but it’s a great thing for Minnesota who can almost assuredly count on sending Zilverberg through. He seems like the biggest darkhorse at this weight.

Look at the quarters of I like DT over Wilson, Moore over Leblanc (again), Harger over Zilverberg (again) and Yates over Morse (again).

That sets up the semi’s where I like Taylor to smash Yates and Moore to take care of business against Zilverberg in another close match.
David Taylor is untouchable here. He runs through this weight and bonuses Moore. To which degree I am unsure.

CP’s 165 Predictions and Tiers

1. David Taylor




2. Nick Moore

3. Dan Yates

4. Pierce Harger
5. Danny Zilverberg
6. Jackson Morse

7. Austin Wilson
8. Ryan LeBlanc

174
Automatic Qualifiers-7

Pre Seeds
  1. Robert Kokesh, NEB
  2. Matt Brown, PSU
  3. Mike Evans, IOWA
  4. Logan Storley, MINN
  5. Tony Dallago, ILL
  6. Mark Martin, OSU
  7. Scott Liegel, WIS
  8. Collin Zeerip, MICH

4 big dogs here and this weight drops off considerably. I understand the seeding with Kokesh at 1, but feel Brown had a case for the 1 all the same. Kokesh just hasn’t beaten the level of guys that Brown has. However, it’ll play itself out in the end!

Fast forward to the semi’s I really love the way Kokesh has been wrestling. After his Cliff Keen showing where he really made Howe work he entered the conversation as a guy who could potentially challenge Howe down the road. Storley has really struggled to jump levels after 2 very solid seasons. I just love Kokesh’s pace and volume of attacks. Though Storley has shown he can slow down some high-octane guys, I don’t think he’s going to keep Kokesh at bay.

On the bottom half I’ll take Brown over Evans all day. Brown had separated himself from Evans each time they wrestle. He’s done great at getting to his legs and finishing efficiently. I don’t see anything changing here.

So we get a Kokesh v. Brown final. I like Brown here. These two both are tremendous hand fighters who get off a lot of attacks. I think Brown is just a little better defensively and I think that’s the difference. I doubt the mat will become much of a factor. So Brown goes back to back with Big 10 titles.

For 3rd, I think the Evans win over Storley was quite fluke-ish. He won’t get away with a lot of the tactical riding he got away with in Carver Hawkeye. Give me Storley by a point for 3rd.


CP’s 174 Predictions and Tiers

1. Matt Brown
2. Robert Kokesh

3. Logan Storley
4. Mike Evans



5. Mark Martin
6. Tony Dallago
7. Scott Liegel

184
Automatic Qualifiers-7

Pre Seeds
  1. Ed Ruth, PSU
  2. Kevin Steinhaus, MINN
  3. Ethen Lofthouse, IOWA
  4. TJ Dudley, NEB
  5. Domenic Abounader, MICH
  6. Kenny Courts, OSU
  7. Jackson Hein, WIS
  8. John Rizqallah, MSU

My first reaction to the pre seeds at 184 was that we could potentially see a rematch of Abounader v. Dudley in the quarters. That match was a complete blast last time around with Dudley getting the 8-6 win in sudden victory. I remember watching that match and thinking Abounader was the better guy, able to get to the legs with more consistency. I think the Michigan coaching staff will have him ready for this one. So there’s that to look forward to.

A 100% Kenny Courts could give Ethen Lofthouse a tough match in that quarter, yet I don’t think Kenny can go 7 minutes with him. I don’t see Ruth or Steinhaus having any difficulty in their quarter.

So here we go, Ruth v. Abounader. Abounader’s got some nice offense, but Ruth has spent his entire career thwarting guys with good leg attacks. I think Abounader’s offense will be rendered useless against Ed. Ed by lots and lots here.

Steinhaus v. Lofthouse for the 3rd time in their career. Last year Steinhaus dominated the first match, with Ethen sending Steinhaus into the consolations at NCAA’s with a 3-2 win.

In a vacuum I truly believe Steinhaus is the better guy, but I’m far from sure how healthy he is. I suppose the same question is fair for Ethen who has spent half of the year on the bench all the same. So I guess that’s a wash. I’ll take Steinhaus to win, but it’ll be tight!

So we get Ruth v. Steinhaus 3.0. Not a revolutionary thought, but I’ll take Ed again. He widened the gap from a year ago and I don’t see how Ed loses to be honest. I think it’s a 4-6 point win for Ed with bonus being a real possibility.

CP’s 184 Predictions and Tiers

1. Ed Ruth


2. Kevin Steinhaus
3. Ethen Lofthouse

4. Dominic Abounader
5. TJ Dudley

6. Kenny Courts

7. John Rizqallah

197
Automatic Qualifiers-8

Pre Seeds
  1. Morgan McIntosh, PSU
  2. Nick Heflin, OSU
  3. Scott Schiller, MINN
  4. Braden Atwood, PUR
  5. Nathan Burak, IOWA
  6. Mario Gonzalez, ILL
  7. Alex Polizzi, NU
  8. Timmy McCall, WIS
  9. Nick McDiarmid, MSU
  10. Caleb Kolb, NEB
  11. Chris Heald, MICH
  12. Garret Goldman, IND

Really a 3 dog race here. McIntosh gets a well deserved 1 seed. McIntosh was my preseason pick to win it all, so it’s a bit validating to see him make it this far, though I am not sure how well I feel about that prediction moving forward.

So to the quarters. I don’t see McCall challenging McIntosh, despite the fact that McCall knocked off Heflin, I think that match was more of the exception than the rule for McCall. So Mcintosh cruises. Heflin should take care of Polizzi in his quarter. The 4 v. 5 with Atwood and Burak is interesting. It’s been Atwood having the edge with a 2-0 record against Burak. So I’m just going out on a limb and taking Burak. I really expected him to jump levels this year, and to this point, it hasn’t happened. If Burak can solve Atwoods mat wrestling, I think he’s got what it takes to make the semi’s.

So to the semi’s. I am intrigued by the McIntosh v. Burak match. I think this will be a quite low scoring match with McIntosh picking his spots and Burak being unable to get to McIntosh’s legs. Ultimately I think McIntosh gets on the legs and finishes a shot or two and that’ll be the difference.

On the bottom half we have a rematch between Schiller and Heflin. Heflin went for the big move last time and it paid off with his double overhook throw. The question is will Schiller even go there with him again? I think he’ll have learned his lesson and stick to attacking legs. He did a nice job getting his attacks off and finishing, but the damage had already been done. Schiller had been so good most of the year, I think he gets some of his mojo back and crashes the finals.

After watching the McIntosh v. Schiller match it became apparent to me that Schiller just didn’t match up well against McIntosh. I feel quite confident McIntosh will get to the legs consistently again and get the win and a Big 10 title. Schiller was out-scrambled both off of his attacks and McIntosh’s. Schiller doesn’t bring that x-factor on top that could give McIntosh problems a la J’den Cox.

CP’s 197 Predictions and Tiers

1. Morgan McIntosh
2. Scott Schiller
3. Nick Heflin

4. Nathan Burak
5. Braden Atwood
6. Mario Gonzalez

7. Alex Polizzi
8. Nick McDiarmid

285
Automatic Qualifiers-9

Pre Seeds
  1. Adam Coon, MICH
  2. Adam Chalfant, IND
  3. Mike McMullan, NU
  4. Bobby Telford, IOWA
  5. Tony Nelson, MINN
  6. Mike McClure, MSU
  7. Connor Medbery, WIS
  8. Jon Gingrich, PSU
  9. Collin Jensen, NEB
  10. Nick Tavanello, OSU
  11. Alex White, PUR
  12. Chris Lopez, ILL
Sweet mary, I better be hydrated before tackling this beast. What a frigging weight. If you’re looking for the toughest conference bracket ANYWHERE it’s right here. 285. Big 10’s.

This year the 6 beat 1, 5 beat 3 and 4 beat 2. So any combination of results shouldn’t surprise anyone!

A year ago, I was a little late to the party with coming to the realization that Matt McDonough was simply not the same guy. I am still trying to figure out if Nelson IS a different guy, or is he just ready for the post season to get going?

Pretty much every quarter is interesting. Coon will take PSU’s choice at heavy Jon Gingrich. Gingrich has notched big wins in his career, but none this year. Coon should be fine here. Telford and Nelson in a quarter. What else can I say? Insane. I like Nelson to get back to his winning ways against Telford.

Mike McClure will take on Mike McMullan in the most alliterative quarterfinal in history! McMullan won this match the last time they wrestled but that was all the way back during his Freshman year! I still think he’s the man in this match and will make the finals.

Adam Chalfant will face Connor Medbery. This is my upset special for this bracket. I like Medbery (who was pinned by Chalfant earlier this year) to get the win here. I think he gets to his attacks and finishes. Both of these guys are athletic for heavyweights, I think Medbery just brings a bit more technically.

On to the semi’s! We’ll have Coon v. Nelson and Medbery v. McMullan.

I’ll start with the easy one. I think McMullan has no trouble with Medbery and makes another Big 10 final. He’s won the last 3 times they wrestled and I think he has a postseason mettle that few can match!

Here are my observations from the first Coon v. Nelson match. Coon dictated pace, was able to get to the legs and had no issues getting away. Nelson couldn’t take ground, couldn’t ride him, and couldn’t penetrate what-so-ever. Barring a complete change in pace and strategy, I’m not sure what the path for victory is for Nelson. I feel quite confident it won’t be the mat. So he needs a takedown. I just don’t see it coming, and I can’t believe I’m saying that. My gut says Nelson, but my head says Coon. Maybe I’m just hungry? I’ll take Coon to make the finals.

So we get one of the matches I wanted to see ALL year. McMullan and Coon. What a way to wrap up this unbelievable tournament. We saw at Vegas JT Felix was able to attack Coon’s ankles. Felix is a stud, but couldn’t hang on. I think McMullan is a savvier version of JT Felix. A bit more slick on his feet, a bit more skilled in scrambles, I think McMullan gets it done here for the Big 10 title.

I cannot place a strong enough emphasis in how unsure I am about so many of these picks. It is inches, not feet that separate these guys from 1-5.

CP’s 285 Predictions and Tiers

1. Mike McMullan
2. Adam Coon
3. Tony Nelson
4. Bobby Telford
5. Mike McClure
6. Connor Medbery
7. Adam Chalfant





8. Jon Gingrich
9. Collin Jensen

CP’s Team Predictions and Tiers

1. PSU

2. Iowa
3. Minnesota



4. Michigan
5. Nebraska
6. Ohio State

7. Northwestern
8. Wisconsin
9. Illinois

10. Purdue
11. Indiana
12. Michigan State

There ya have it.  Thanks for reading.  Give me your thoughts/comments below!  

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