CP's 174 NCAA Prediction and Breakdown
Christian Pyles
In this piece, you'll find my top 12 predictions for 174, a write up as to how I reached my conclusions, and tiers that can visually/spatially show you how I view this weight class in my mind. You won't find a more comprehensive or detailed set of predictions anywhere else. We are teasing one weight of the ten weight/team preview for free. To read the entire 6,000+ word, 10 weight preview(and team scores), you'll need to be a FloInsider member. If that's you click here for the whole shebang!
174
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Andrew Howe-Oklahoma
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Chris Perry-Oklahoma State
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Logan Storley-Minnesota
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Matt Brown-Penn State
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Mike Evans-Iowa
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Robert Kokesh-Nebraska
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Cody Walters-Ohio
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Tanner Weatherman-Iowa State
R12: Bryce Hammond-Cal Bakersfield, Mat Miller-Navy, Lee Munster-Northwestern, Tony Dallago, Illinois
Thoughts:
Howe-Clear number 1 in my mind. I thought he looked great against Brown. Still don’t know what he was doing on top after that first stall warning. He had the 2-0 lead and over 1:30 of RT. Brown was never close to a TD at any point, so I didn’t understand his reluctance to cut him. Anyways. He won. Lots of people watched that match and felt Brown was right there. Apart from match management tactics, Howe dominated every aspect. As I said many times, he isn’t getting taken down, and you’re not riding him. Howe got the TD, the ride and got away. Explain to me how Brown was “right there.”
Perry-Really tight bunch here after Howe. Perry split with Storley last year, and had the odd loss to Porter as well. He is probably the best gameplanner/tactician out there, so I gave him the narrow edge over Storley/Brown. Emphasis on narrow.
Storley-Didn’t close the season how I thought he might. He had a terrible Big 10’s, then lost to Brown and Kokesh(whom he had wins over earlier in the year). Then again his style lends itself to close matches, he’ll need to widen the gap so he doesn’t let inferior guys stay so close. I think he has finalist potential and he's a guy with wins over Perry, Brown, Evans, Kokesh. That's not for nothing.
Brown-Great finish to his season avenging losses to Storley, Evans and Heflin. He’s right there with Perry and Storley. Matt needs more leg attacks to set himself apart. Love how he brawls and he will be a bear to beat by anyone this year. He’s always coming at you. I think Storley is a hair better. Could be off on this one.
Evans-Wasn’t 100% at NCAA’s, but I still think he’s a notch behind Storley(0-3 against), Brown (1-1 against) and Perry(0-1 against). Like many, he needs more offense, and can’t simply push his way to wins. More attacks, more motion, and quality set ups will tell the tale for Evans. Also, he lost his top edge he was so famous for in high school. He needs to evolve on top. He can ride the lesser opponents, but the better guys not only get away, they frequently reverse him. Needs an adjustment here to jump levels.
Kokesh-Some may think I’m selling Kokesh a bit short this year considering he was 3rd last year, but let’s take a look. He avenged losses to both Storley and Evans. I don’t think that means he’s better than those guys though. Against Evans he is 1-3 and has been outscored 37-15 in those 4 matches. Evans is the better guy. Just a bad NCAA’s and still only a 1 point loss. Against Storley he is 1-1 with both matches being 3-1. He does have the 10-7 win over Brown, so maybe that should hold more weight. He’s in the conversation with these guys, I think he’s just a touch behind.
Walters-He was very consistent all last year. Didn’t notch that signature win last year, so this is where the weight drops off. He was 35-2 coming into NCAA’s which is still impressive. No bad losses all year. He’ll only get better, but his placement will only improve slightly.
Weatherman-Has the win over Blanton last year which could give him a case for 7, but I think Walters is a touch better. Real solid guy that I think is just a bit better than the guys behind him. Not much extra room for Weatherman, but I think he finds his way into the top 8.
R12 Thoughts: Hard to find 4 names you feel good about here. Miller and Hammond have the most upside with Munster and Dallago being more gut picks. Dallago could be very interesting down a weight. He’s just not been consistent throughout his career.
Tiers: I use tiers as a way of visually showing you how far I feel wrestlers are from one another. If they’re bunched up, those are matches that could perhaps be flipped. If they’re further away, I feel as though there’s real separation between the two.
Andrew Howe
Chris Perry
Logan Storley
Matt Brown
Mike Evans
Robert Kokesh
Cody Walters
Tanner Weatherman
Bryce Hammond
Mat Miller
Lee Munster
Tony Dallago