Insider U: Ten Burning Questions Heading into the College Season
Insider U: Ten Burning Questions Heading into the College Season
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Insider U: Ten Burning Questions
Christian Pyles, College Analyst
We can't help it. The NCAA season is still over two months away, but the story lines are set and we're chomping at the bit. We challenged our college guru with identifying the ten most intriguing situations are as the season approaches, and CP delivered this, with a bonus gem for good measure.
CP - These 11 questions are by no means a list of what should be the 11 biggest questions for all fans. This is what I’m interested in or curious about. Nonetheless, I hope and feel that many people would have some of the same questions and hopefully will find the answers informative and interesting.
#11 Will There Be a Break Out Star This Year?
My definition of a break out guy would be someone who is coming off of a season where you might have seen glimpses of potential, but they seemed far from placing or title contention. This athlete then morphs into a likely high All American to National Champion. Kendric Maple (Oklahoma) was definitely a break out guy two years ago. Taylor Meeks (Oregon State), Steve Santos (Columbia), and Nahshonn Garrett (Cornell) were all guys who surprised many with their high NCAA placements last year.
If I had to pick one guy this year to do big things it would be Morgan McIntosh (Penn State). Morgan was 1-2 his Freshman season at NCAA’s. He took a redshirt season last year and had some nice results. He stayed active during the Freestyle season and had about as impressive a loss as I’ve seen when he wrestled Dustin Kilgore in Freestyle (watch it on FLO). He might be a bit undersized, but he’s a neutral dynamo. With so many attacks at his disposal and his great body awareness I’d be nearly shocked to see him off the podium. He’s on par with the best in this weight and I think he has a legitimate chance of winning it all. With the departure of Quentin Wright (PSU) Kilgore (Kent State) and Wilps (Pitt) from this weight, it enables a guy like Morgan to enter that title conversation.
Maybe I’m going overboard, but this was the answer I came up with. Between his pedigree, training situation, and dedication can you come up with one better?
#10 Can Cornell Continue Their Run of Freshman All Americans?
I respect Coach Koll’s ability to develop guys about as much as any guy in the country. He’s done such a fine job on such a consistent basis. I’m not sure any team over the last 10 or so years has put as many Freshman (often true Freshman) on the podium.
2013: Nahshonn Garrett
2012: No Fr AA
2011: No Fr AA
2010: Dake
2009: Simaz
2008: Grey, Lewnes
2007: Josh Arnone
2006: Troy Nickerson
2005: No Fr AA
2004: No Fr AA
2003: Dustin Manotti
2002: Travis Lee
They had a lull 2 and 3 years ago but had an amazing run from 2006 to 2010. This has always been something I’ve been interested in and been following since I got into the sport so this might not be as interesting to some. But for me I love seeing young guys on the podium.
They have a few candidates this year to keep this run going in Mark Grey and Brian Realbuto. Not sure if we will see Cisneros this year (he'd have to beat out Villalonga), but he would be another Freshman in the mix. I think Grey has an excellent chance to place with Realbuto having an outside shot. I like at least one of these guys to place and keep the streak alive.
#9 How Will the OTC Guys Fare?
There are a handful of guys who took a nontraditional route to Division 1 wrestling. Heading from high school to the OTC is becoming a popular choice for some of the nation’s elite high school wrestlers. We will see Destin McCauley (Nebraska), Earl Hall (ISU), Pat Downey (Nebraska), Willie Miklus (Missouri) and Jesse Thielke (Wisconsin) at various D1 schools.
Thielke took a redshirt year last year, but spent the year prior at the OTC. I expect we see all these guys wrestle next year even though they are all (excluding Thielke) going to be True Freshman eligibility-wise.
So how prepared will guys who have been training Freestyle (or Greco in Thielke’s case) be for the 7 minute folkstyle grind? I think very well. I think one of the toughest transitions from high school to college wrestling is hand fighting and matching physicality of the more mature college wrestlers. I think we will see this skill up to par for most of these guys. Will their mat skills suffer? Possibly. The transition from par terre to traditional top and bottom wrestling is tough, but all these guys have wrestled years of folkstyle. I don’t anticipate them suddenly forgetting a stand up or break down. It is possible they’ll be less prolific in these areas, but not to the point where it becomes a glaring weakness.
I think the OTC route will prove to be a great option for guys interested in wrestling in college down the line. As far as prognosticating the individual guys, I think if I had to order them based on how successful they’ll be this year it’d go something like this:
Destin McCauley-He was battling some injuries this year, but last year we saw him school a field that included Dylan Ness, Hunter Stieber and Jason Tsirtsis. If he wrestles this year, the sky's the limit. He could win this year. He’s that good and 149 (provided there’s no Kendric Maple) is not great. Nebraska has some flexibility with their middleweights with Jake Sueflohn, James Green and Destin all having red shirts still available. I just have a feeling we see Destin right away.
Jesse Thielke-This guy is just an animal physically. He’s very strong, but might be wrestling above his ideal weight class (141) due to Tyler Graff being at 133. Thielke is our Greco World Team rep at 60 KG (132.5) so it’s pretty likely he’s not having too much Folkstyle training right now. He wrestled 133 last year and lost to pretty much every relevant guy he faced (Beckman, Mango, Schopp) except for his 10-9 win over Scotti Sentes. Again, it seems obvious that Jesse is a 33 pounder who will be thrust into duty up a weight. One of Jesse’s best attributes is his strength, and I’m afraid that will be negated (to a degree) at 141. So consider my expectations a bit tempered. Right now I view him as a Round of 12 type of guy.
Patrick Downey-I really have a hard time knowing what to make of Downey. I’ve watched a good bit of his Freestyle stuff (World Junior Silver) and he’s awesome, but there isn’t too much recent Folkstyle stuff against proven guys to know really what we’re getting. I know he used to really like upper body stuff, but he seems to be more of a complete wrestler at this point. I think it’s possible he can place this year. I think it’s just as likely this is a year of transition for him where he takes some time getting his Folkstyle chops back.
Earl Hall-Hall will look to fare a little better than the last True Freshman 133 ISU threw out there (John Meeks). Both guys are talented wrestlers, but I feel the OTC will help Earl do far better than Meeks was able to do last year. Meeks had glimpses at times, but looked like someone in need of a redshirt to really be up to par. Hall will be a nice prospect, but unfortunately this weight is super deep so I see him probably outside the round of 12.
Willie Miklus-I’ve actually seen a good bit of Miklus and think he’s a solid prospect. He’s got a nice build for a 197 and has a nice variety of attacks. I want to see him shoot and finish more high percentage stuff before I make any major proclamations. I would expect a season similar to the one Nathan Burak just had. I just don’t see him having the offense to make major waves right now.
Regardless of my expectations, one year of results is far from an amount of time to formulate an indictment or endorsement of the OTC. These guys will be mixing it up for the first year so there will be a learning curve regardless of their training environment. I think these guys all will have fine careers and ultimately wind up on the podium. Some guys are just more ready than others.
#8 Will Any True Freshman Make an Impact This Year?
To answer this one you have to look at two different questions: 1) Was this wrestler elite in high school? and 2) Will he be wrestling varsity this year? A guy like Bo Jordan looks about as D1 ready as a kid can be coming out of high school, but Coach Ryan has already said the plan is to redshirt.
To specify a little better about my criteria, I’m not including the OTC guys or Cornell guys who will be eligibility wise “True Freshman.” Rather, I’m just looking at the wrestlers just out of high school.
So between Bo Jordan (Ohio State), Adam Coon (Michigan), Zain Retherford(Penn State), Isaiah Martinez (Illinois), Joey Dance (Virginia Tech), J’Den Cox (Missouri), Anthony Ashnault (Rutgers), Brooks Black (Illinois) and Nathan Tomasello (Ohio State), I think we will probably only see Joey Dance thrust into action. Brooks Black would make sense considering Illinois’ lack of depth at heavyweight, but Coach Perry tends to give his guys redshirts.
One name to watch out for if he gets on the mat is Amarveer Dhesi. Dhesi turned heads when he dominated FILA Junior’s including a beat-down of Adam Coon. If he gets the green light, his neutral game looks to be on par with some of the best heavyweights in NCAA. He very well could be a True Freshman AA for the Beavers of Oregon State.
I think Joey Dance is going to have a nice career for Virginia Tech. That being said, I think his game is a bit limited at this point. Dance is unreal athletically from a balance and body awareness standpoint. However, he lacks the ability to get to legs consistently against elite competition. He relies on his ducks, shrugs (which all certainly have their place) and great defense to beat the best guys. He may have some bottom struggles as well and he offers very little in the area of turns at this point. I think Dance will be a guy who gets ranked in the 15-20 range this year and may be able to notch an upset or two, but right now his game is a bit too limited. Sky is the limit though, and Coach Dresser has done a great job of developing guys the last few years.
One other guy to keep your eye out for is Cody Wiercioch. It looks possible that he could be thrust into duty right away and is listed at 165 for the Panthers. With Tyler Wilps up at 174 the Panthers look to be lacking quality options apart from Cody. I view Wiercioch as a complete wrestler skilled in all phases of wrestling. He gave Chance Marsteller a match that will probably wind up being the most challenging match of Marsteller’s entire career. Cody is tough on his feet with leg attacks, but is skilled in short offense as well. 165 is not an especially deep or talent-rich weight this year so this obviously will aid Cody’s transition.
While we are talking about Pitt Panthers, I would be remiss to not include Edgar Bright. I’m high on Edgar as a prospect, and while I’m sure a redshirt season would help his prospects down the line, I think his high school career has prepared him well for the some of the rigors of D1 wrestling. The St. Ed’s grappler spent four years wrestling the nation’s elite. Though he never won a state title, he has beaten some high quality guys(Ashnault, Retherford and Cisneros to name a few). Technically Edgar is a bit of a work in progress. He won’t have many offerings from the mat, at least initially. I still think he gives his legs up a bit too much though his hips are strong and he uses his stocky build to fire of singles and doubles. I think he will qualify this year and set himself up well to have success later down the line.
While it’s a solid crop of guys I don’t see any True Freshman taking the country by storm and if I had to answer how many True Freshman might place this year Id probably say 0 and feel fairly confident about it. If I had assurance that Dhesi was going to wrestle, I’d feel more confident in saying 1. Of course every year you see redshirts pulled from guys that we didn’t realize would wrestle so this list is obviously far from being all inclusive.
#7 What to Make of the New Look Oklahoma Sooners?
Coach Ryan of Ohio State may be taking a page out of the Mark Cody playbook leaving some big talent on the bench in order to put out a group of studs the next year.
Last year Coach Cody redshirted Jarrod Patterson, Andrew Howe and Travis Rutt. This year we will see an Oklahoma lineup chalked full of talent from top to bottom. Coach Cody has a breadth of options as far as his lineup is concerned. Could Maple and Brewer go up? Could Rutt be at 197 (wrestled at 211 this Spring)? Will DeAngelis circumvent Matt Lester for the 157 spot? Will the loser go to 165?
Lots of options and I won’t attempt to take a stab at what this lineup might look like. All you need to know is that Andrew Howe, Kendric Maple, Travis Rutt, Jarrod Patterson, Cody Brewer will seemingly all take the lineup for the Sooners next year. The Lester’s and DeAngelis will provide quality depth but at this point can’t be counted on for All American production. Though Nick Lester notched an All American finish previously, he has not shown the improvements or results that would suggest that was anything more than an outlier.
So is this team a title contender? I don’t think so. Yes they have two potential champs coming into the fold, but I think the weights where they aren’t great, they could really struggle. 165, 184 or 197 (depends on Rutt) and 285 will all be minimal contributors not ready to push Oklahoma over the top. Still this could be a team that, if everyone clicks at the right time, could push for a trophy.
#6 Who is the Biggest “Lock” to Win an NCAA Title?
David Taylor. This is not a proclamation of Taylor being better than Ruth, Stieber, etc. (Check the p4p rankings later this Fall for those). This is all about probabilities. Now, is there such a thing as a lock? Of course not, but I think you understand the point I’m making. Assuming we see Taylor at 165 again the toughest and most accomplished opponent will be someone he majored (Tyler Caldwell). Not only that, but Caldwell is the clear #2 by a pretty wide margin. So there’s not the depth of talent behind Caldwell that would cause any concern. Taylor could very well bonus through his entire NCAA tournament (again). I’m actually expecting it.
To truly evaluate who has the best shot at winning this year, you have to look at all the guys who you think will win, and the difficulty of their path. Ed Ruth to me is the clear #2 even though there may be a bit more competition. Kevin Steinhaus (Minnesota) gave Ruth a tight match in the Big 10’s. Kevin is really one of the only guys remaining who will even push Ruth to break a sweat, but (in my opinion) that’s one more guy pushing him than Taylor will have. Like 165 his weight doesn’t have elite up and comers who will challenge either.
Though Tony Nelson (Minnesota) may be a tough watch at times, the guy knows who he is. Nelson is next to impossible to take down, tough to ride, and darn near impossible to get away from on bottom. With the graduation of Bradley (Missouri) and Gelogaev(Oklahoma State) I don’t see anyone capable of challenging Nelson for his 3rd title. That being said he’s in tons of tight matches, so he’s tougher to call a “lock” than Ruth and Taylor who separate.
#5 What Will Minnesota’s Lineup Look Like this Year from 125-157?
This team has the potential to be able to unseat (as I’ll mention later) PSU this year. However, there’s some serious lineup uncertainty that is swirling around this team.
It is well documented that 125 is a pretty big haul for All-American David Thorn. What has been suggested is that the entire lightweights would shift up a weight. As in Thorn-133, C. Dardanes-141, N. Dardanes-149, Ness-157.
I’m not a fan of this move if I’m a Minnesota supporter. It may have been debatable at some point that Chris Dardanes wasn’t as good as David Thorn. At this point, it has been established that Thorn hasn't performed as well as Dardanes, and with that he would not project well as a 133. With the depth at 133 it is certainly feasible that he doesn’t even make the round of 12. It took a pretty convenient run of opponents for Thorn to be an AA at a much weaker 125. At 133 he’s probably what he was at 125 just with more talent in front of him.
With the potential move of Thorn up the Dardanes twins move up to 141 and 149 respectively. I view length as a fairly important attribute, and I think the twins wouldn’t have a great transition up a weight. However, I will say that both guys have a great shot at placing at both weights. I think Chris would struggle for a top 5 finish at 141 with Stieber, Maple, Carter, Port and Ugi all back. 149 will be weaker than 141 is and honestly Nick has top 4 or 5 potential at this weight. This weight doesn’t have the great riders that 141 has that typically given Nick fits.
Where this plan of moving everyone up really takes potential points off the board is moving Ness up to 157. Ness goes from potentially the favorite to win 149 to probably the 5th best 157 (behind DSJ, Green, Dieringer, Alton). Certainly he could do better than that, but he struggled with much worse wrestlers last year. So while their 157 prospects will be improved compared to Zilverberg (who is still very solid), they eliminate a potential title and also create a hole at 125 with Thorn not being there.
Obviously I am far from being privy to weigh-in information and how hard the cuts were for the different Gophers. It’s possible all 4 of those guys were cutting weigh too much weight and desperately need to move up to reach their full potential.
From where I’m sitting, in a vacuum the best Gopher lineup would be:
125-David Thorn
133-Chris Dardanes
141-Nick Dardanes
149-Dylan Ness
157-Danny Zilverberg
165-Dylan Reel
174-Logan Storley
184-Kevin Steinhaus
197-Scott Schiller
285-Tony Nelson
Deviating from this, in my opinion, eliminates them from title contention. The Gophers have been hanging their hat on putting out a complete lineup and I think their 125 and 133 prospects look fairly dim if Thorn moves up.
#4 Is Andrew Howe the Favorite at 174?
I’ve been fairly brazen in my prognostications for Andrew Howe this year. I’ve always been a huge fan of his game. He got a bit of an unfair reputation early as a guy who doesn’t score much, but looking back to when he was healthy as a Sophomore he really separated from guys. He is not the bonus machine of Ruth, Taylor or Stieber. However, he can widen the gap on guys.
Andrew is stepping into an already competitive and talented weight class that will have last years champ (Chris Perry) set to return at that weight. We’ve had a few glimpses of Andrew since he tore his ACL in the Olympic Trials Finals against Jordan Burroughs. At Universities he wrestled at 174 and absolutely laid waste to a field that had Matt Brown and Logan Storley. Howe teched Storley two times in the final matches. We saw an Andrew Howe who had great movement, pace, and of course brutal hand fighting. His ability to get to legs and finish will be up there with the best guys in the country. Technically you’ll be hard pressed to find a better technician on his feet with set ups, attacks and re-shots. He is fine on the mat in that he is very rarely ridden, though he is not particularly prolific on top, he can rack up riding time through his TD-and-release game.
At the World Team Trials back down at 74 KG(163.5) we saw, in my opinion, a different Andrew Howe. I thought he looked a bit more sluggish, seemed to wear out, and had some poor shots/attempts that left him more vulnerable than I’m used to seeing. This could be attributed to a few factors. 1) He was facing better competition. Dake, Paulson, Taylor, Burroughs all were in the bracket. 2) He was down to 163.5 competing for the first time in a year. I think the reason we saw Howe struggle were a combination of the weight cut possibly taking its toll and the competition being improved. He looked better in previous years down there than he did this season. He went from the guy knocking at the door against Burroughs to being 4th on the ladder. Andrew Howe didn’t forget how to be great (see Universities), but maybe he can’t be great at 163 anymore? He was noticeably more muscular on what was already a very well put-together frame.
I think we will see the Howe from Universities. Eating well and yet hungry to go out on top, I don’t see anyone having the skills to get the takedown or ride they’ll need to beat Howe. Additionally, I don’t see many guys keeping Howe at bay for an entire 7 minutes. Simply put: They’re not taking him down, and he’s taking you down. You can’t ride him. Howe will win this weight, and I don’t think there will be a blemish on his record, health permitting. The question of health is legitimate since he had a significant hamstring injury as well as an ACL tear. I’m banking on him keeping healthy all year long.
#3 Who Will be this Year's “Dake v. Taylor?”
Ok, dumb question and a ridiculous standard for any one match to ever be compared to. That being said every year we have those matchups we can’t wait to see. I remember the Metcalf v. Schlatter hype reached epic proportions a few years ago. Ruth v. Amuchastegui, Robles v. McDonough and David Taylor v. Bubba Jenkins were all highly anticipated matches that most wrestling fans loved talking about and predicting. To a lesser extent many fans were especially intrigued last year in the Stieber v. Ramos matchup as well.
It’s not very often you can potentially have two national champs squaring off, but that could potentially be the case if Kendric Maple stays down at 141 this year. The Logan Stieber v. Kendric Maple matchup is far and away the most intriguing and most talent-rich match up for wrestling fans this year.
The questions now are: When can we see this match, and who would win? There’s always a shot we get to see this one at the All-Star match. Certainly both guys will be invited, but it’s not always possible to get both guys there. Here’s hoping we get an early sneak peak. If not, in all odds we are waiting for NCAA’s to see these two mix it up. That’s a bummer, yet the excitement of the unknown building to the finale of the NCAA finals is just phenomenal drama.
Now, who wins? Last year although I picked Hunter Steiber to beat Maple, Stieber was not up to the task at NCAA’s all tournament long from what I could tell and the moment appeared to get the better of him. Meanwhile, Maple went unchallenged throughout the tournament.
Maple brings tremendous strength and agility coupled with phenomenal counters from neutral. On top he is an extremely gifted rider who gets your wrist and has no interest in giving it back. He’s great from tilts and can be tough to ride. At times he has shown to have a somewhat suspect tank, but this is nitpicking at best. I am excited for this matchup because it puts two guys who rely so heavily on their physical strength.
Logan is as offensively gifted as any guy in the game today. He has a great single as well as a double leg to complement his low ankle attacks and upper body throw-by’s. Combine that with being strong as a horse and possibly the best top wrestler in the sport he’s more than a handful. I like Logan to win with his relentless pace and bevy of attacks. This isn’t the first time I’ve picked against Maple(and admittedly I’ve been burnt by it before) so maybe I’m just late to the show with him. I think he’s great, phenomenal actually. He’s just going up against a future All-Timer and potentially a 4 time champ. I like Logan, close.
#2 How Much Impact Will the Guys Coming Off of Redshirt Have?
In my mind there's tons of talent coming off redshirt. I’ll try to briefly go weight-by-weight the guys I think will have impacts this year. This is not an all-inclusive list of every redshirt last year. These are the guys I see coming in, making noise and competing for a spot on the podium.
At 125 there’s a really nice crop of guys coming off of Redshirt. Cory Clark is the cream of the crop guy with Jarrod Patterson and Anthony Zanetta at 2 and 3 respectively. Joe Roth is a real quality guy from CMU as well. Clark beat Delgado, Patterson, Sprenkle, Boyle, Gilman all last year. Patterson is a 2 time All American who doesn’t have the highest ceiling, but also has a low floor as well. Zanetta beat Megaludis last year and also has 2 wins over Alan Waters, so the pedigree and ability is certainly there.
133 has a ton of studs that are difficult to differentiate from. Ryan Mango returns up a weight. Mark Grey, Mason Beckman and Jimmy Gulibon had a unique triangle of very mixed results among the three. I think all 4 of these guys have All American potential. Zane Richards and Johnni DiJulius are also very note-worthy guys who had solid seasons.
The highlight returnee to 141 will be VA’s own Devin Carter. Devin had a great redshirt season in both folkstyle and free. He should be a top 5 guy this year. Super-recruit and Greco World Team member Jesse Thielke looks to be the 141 this year for the Badgers. I’m not sure if he has the goods to place just yet as I felt he relied too much on his exceptional defense and counters. The kid is a beast though and him placing should shock nobody. Iowa’s Josh Dziewa, Kent States Tyler Small and Michigans Stephen Dutton all could be quality guys with the potential to make noise nationally (yeah that’s really an ambiguous statement, but it’s as resolute as I could be talking about those guys).
There are a few guys at 149 I’m particularly excited to see. Jason Tsirtsis looked to be close to D1 ready coming out of high school. That being said, he is a very defensive wrestler who will need his own offense to make the jump. Josh Kindig suffered an injury this Spring and I’m not completely sure of the severity. I have always been pretty high on him though, and think he’s an All American if healthy this year.
The 157 crop isn’t as deep as others but has some quality newcomers, but Brian Realbuto had a solid RS season coupled with some very nice freestyle results this Spring. Couple that with his training situation at Cornell he could be a dark horse to place this season. Ian Miller showed all the promise in the world his True Freshman season, but had pretty muddled results as a redshirt. Originally I thought he’d be a surefire AA, but looking over his season, I’m less sure.
I am not sure where Isaac Jordan will be this year. Based on his success at 157, it would seem that it would be there, but he wrestled a fair amount at 165 as well, so I’ll just give him his own little paragraph. He had a fabulous Midlands showing beating Jesse Dong, Roger Pena, Taylor Walsh and Walter Peppelman. Regardless of what weight he goes, I think he will have a very nice season.
For whatever reason as we get higher in weights the depth of talent dwindles a bit. At 165 I see Dylan Reel for Minnesota and Jackson Morse from Illinois as the guys who will have impacts. Not sure I see either guy as AA’s. I’ve been irrationally high on Morse for some time now, but I’m beginning to wonder if he’s going to pan out. Who am I kidding? I think he’ll be good, he’s talented and coached by Mark Perry. Let the irrational love continue! Not sure what weight Nebraska’s Micah Barnes goes, but I’d guess he’s a 165 with Kokesh clearly being entrenched as the Husker 174. He could be a tough guy who did have a win over Jordan Blanton last year.
174 is short and sweet. Andrew Howe is back for Oklahoma, and he is going to be nasty.
184- Ok back with a really solid weight and lots of guys to choose from. I think Kenny Courts (Ohio State) has a lot of potential and could have a breakout year. Vic Avery(Edinboro) and Jordan Rogers(Oklahoma State) still might be a year away from contention but both have the chops to have impacts for their team.
I’m giving Travis Rutt his own little island as well. Wrestled last year at 184, but just wrestled at 211 for Freestyle, so it seems possible he could go 197. I like him to place at either weight honestly.
At 197 I love (as you already know) Morgan McIntosh coming back this year. Watching his film and looking at his results I’d be pretty shocked to see him not place this year. I think he has a legitimate chance to win it all.
I’m a huge Gwiazdowski (NC State) fan and have been for some time now I thought he had AA potential as his True Freshman year. He’s only gotten bigger and better in the year off looking great in Freestyle. He’s not a title contender probably, but I’d say he will have a nice high AA finish if I were a betting man. Additionally, I think Austin Marsden (Oklahoma State) is bound for the podium as well. While not an auspicious of an option as Gelogaev, nor near as exciting, Austin will bring his solid positioning and traditional heavyweight values and I think ultimately place this year. Maryland All American Spencer Myers returns as well.
Lots of new guys with some great impact-potential.
#1 Is There Anyone Who Can Unseat PSU?
Short answer is of course it is possible. My answer would be not very likely. To really answer this question you have to look at who are the top contenders to challenge this team. Last year I didn’t give any teams much of a shot for upsetting PSU. Low and behold a bizarre Alan Gelogaev slip-up was the difference between Oklahoma State knocking off the Nittany Lions (though of course many little things could be attributed, that was the big moment in my opinion). So it is very possible that I had over-rated PSU before (and perhaps underrated Oklahoma State). That being said, Oklahoma State is losing Oliver and Gelogaev.
While the Cowboys have very competent replacements coming in in Josh Kindig and Austin Marsden, those two are simply not the caliber of wrestlers that Oliver and Z were. Factor in that they’ll have a relatively unproven 184 replacement for the talented Chris Chionuma in either Jordan Rogers or Kyle Crutchmer and the odds become a bit longer still. Both guys were big time recruits, yet did little to strike confidence in my mind that they were ready to compete for a spot on the podium. So in my mind Oklahoma State, while formidable, will not have the guns to compete with Penn State.
I suppose I would be remiss to not include the Hawkeyes as being in the mix to potentially pull off the upset. They inject Cory Clark to replace McDonough. Clark had a phenomenal redshirt season beating a host of All Americans including Jesse Delgado 6-1. Josh Dziewa should finally crack the starting lineup on a permanent basis at 141. This team could be a bit like Minnesota was last year with quite a few All Americans but lacking the title contenders to push them over the top. The only weight I’m ruling out a shot at the podium is the Ghost of Brent Metcalf AKA 149. This weight has just been bad luck over and over again between Anthony Baldosaro leaving, Jake Ballweg leaving, Dylan Carews injury problems, Nate Skonieczny leaving and now Edwin Cooper not coming, it just doesn’t look good for this year. There is some long-term hope coming in Brandon Sorenson, but he will need a year in the room to be a podium contender.
From where I’m sitting the number one contender this year is Minnesota. They have a bevy of returning points with 8 AA’s that should be in the lineup (Thorn, Dardanes x2, Ness, Storley, Steinhaus, Schiller, Nelson). Zilverberg really came on at 157 and is a darkhorse candidate to place this year. 165 looks like Dylan Reel who showed some promise last year beating AA Cody Yohn. This is a rock solid lineup anchored by Tony Nelson who is among the most likely champs of any weight this year. I think Ness(or some other guy) has to step up for this team to win as we’ve seen how having top-heavy finishes correlate to success.(PSU 5 AA’s all in finals last year).
The problem is this. Penn State has two guys like Tony Nelson. They also score crazy amounts of bonus points. They also will have 6 dynamite blue chippers and seasoned vets ready to go. This has the potential to be the best Penn State team of the Cael era. Don’t get me wrong, just because Morgan McIntosh is good, I’m not saying he can match Quentin’s production from last year. That being said, McIntosh will wrestle in a much weaker 197 weight class this year(Killer, Wilps, Hernandez, Burak all gone). He is a title contender in my mind. I’ll write plenty about Ruth and Taylor this year, so I’ll only say that having them on this team is an absurd advantage.
I’ve been high on the Alton brothers historically, and though both under-achieved last year to a degree(Andrew moreso than Dylan), I don’t foresee them both being off the podium ever again. Their season had a good deal of turbulence and distraction(some their fault, some not). I think a year of getting them healthy and hungry from being off the podium get’s them back reminding us why they were such sought after recruits. I see them both on the podium this year, Andrew simply because of the weakness of 149 and Dylan because he’s just that good.
Brown and Megaludis are guys who I view as low-floor, high-ceiling guys. Megaludis might not win, but I’d be pretty surprised to see him out of the top 4. Brown maybe could slip a little further back by the nature of 174, but I don’t see him as a guy likely to not be on the podium.
The Nittany Lions have 2 weights that I think are going to be minimal contributors to the cause. I didn’t understand last year Cael using Lawson instead of Gingrich. Gingrich had better wins(Delaney by MD, Chalfant and McClure) and looked to be overall the better guy. Maybe Cael and staff was a bit enamored by the potential that Lawson has, but last year it was just that, potential. Gingrich was by nearly all measurables(from an outsiders) the better guy, just didn’t get the nod. Obviously Cael has more insight and a better gut/feel for coaching than I’ll ever understand. That being said, great coaches can make mistakes, and going with Lawson over Gingrich last year, I felt was one. So all that to say, I don’t know who goes 285 for PSU and I would say both have a chance to slip on the podium, though it is probably an outside shot at best.
At 141, it is somewhat unclear which direction Cael might go. Obviously there is speculation on whether we will see Zain Retherford out there for his True Freshman season. I wouldn’t understand this choice barring injuries to the apparent next in line Zach Beitz. This is a team that should win this year, and I would much rather have Zain’s 5th year as a Nittany Lion than his first year where there will undoubtedly be a learning curve. I think for all his heart and skill he will still be an undersized 141(have you SEEN Kendric Maple?). The difference between him and Beitz will probably be mostly negligible on the national scene. Beitz won’t be great, but he’ll be solid enough and may even qualify. That should be good enough to get it done.
I’m very interested to see if my prediction turns out to be true and Penn State out-does their scoring from the last 3 seasons. I think it is their most talented line-up yet and will take the obvious combination of under-performing by PSU and out-performing by someone else to unseat Cael and Co.
Thank you for reading! I hope this get’s you excited for the season coming up! Go hit a few stand ups in your living room! It will help pass the time between now and November.
CP
Christian Pyles, College Analyst
We can't help it. The NCAA season is still over two months away, but the story lines are set and we're chomping at the bit. We challenged our college guru with identifying the ten most intriguing situations are as the season approaches, and CP delivered this, with a bonus gem for good measure.
CP - These 11 questions are by no means a list of what should be the 11 biggest questions for all fans. This is what I’m interested in or curious about. Nonetheless, I hope and feel that many people would have some of the same questions and hopefully will find the answers informative and interesting.
#11 Will There Be a Break Out Star This Year?
My definition of a break out guy would be someone who is coming off of a season where you might have seen glimpses of potential, but they seemed far from placing or title contention. This athlete then morphs into a likely high All American to National Champion. Kendric Maple (Oklahoma) was definitely a break out guy two years ago. Taylor Meeks (Oregon State), Steve Santos (Columbia), and Nahshonn Garrett (Cornell) were all guys who surprised many with their high NCAA placements last year.
If I had to pick one guy this year to do big things it would be Morgan McIntosh (Penn State). Morgan was 1-2 his Freshman season at NCAA’s. He took a redshirt season last year and had some nice results. He stayed active during the Freestyle season and had about as impressive a loss as I’ve seen when he wrestled Dustin Kilgore in Freestyle (watch it on FLO). He might be a bit undersized, but he’s a neutral dynamo. With so many attacks at his disposal and his great body awareness I’d be nearly shocked to see him off the podium. He’s on par with the best in this weight and I think he has a legitimate chance of winning it all. With the departure of Quentin Wright (PSU) Kilgore (Kent State) and Wilps (Pitt) from this weight, it enables a guy like Morgan to enter that title conversation.
Maybe I’m going overboard, but this was the answer I came up with. Between his pedigree, training situation, and dedication can you come up with one better?
#10 Can Cornell Continue Their Run of Freshman All Americans?
I respect Coach Koll’s ability to develop guys about as much as any guy in the country. He’s done such a fine job on such a consistent basis. I’m not sure any team over the last 10 or so years has put as many Freshman (often true Freshman) on the podium.
2013: Nahshonn Garrett
2012: No Fr AA
2011: No Fr AA
2010: Dake
2009: Simaz
2008: Grey, Lewnes
2007: Josh Arnone
2006: Troy Nickerson
2005: No Fr AA
2004: No Fr AA
2003: Dustin Manotti
2002: Travis Lee
They had a lull 2 and 3 years ago but had an amazing run from 2006 to 2010. This has always been something I’ve been interested in and been following since I got into the sport so this might not be as interesting to some. But for me I love seeing young guys on the podium.
They have a few candidates this year to keep this run going in Mark Grey and Brian Realbuto. Not sure if we will see Cisneros this year (he'd have to beat out Villalonga), but he would be another Freshman in the mix. I think Grey has an excellent chance to place with Realbuto having an outside shot. I like at least one of these guys to place and keep the streak alive.
#9 How Will the OTC Guys Fare?
There are a handful of guys who took a nontraditional route to Division 1 wrestling. Heading from high school to the OTC is becoming a popular choice for some of the nation’s elite high school wrestlers. We will see Destin McCauley (Nebraska), Earl Hall (ISU), Pat Downey (Nebraska), Willie Miklus (Missouri) and Jesse Thielke (Wisconsin) at various D1 schools.
Thielke took a redshirt year last year, but spent the year prior at the OTC. I expect we see all these guys wrestle next year even though they are all (excluding Thielke) going to be True Freshman eligibility-wise.
So how prepared will guys who have been training Freestyle (or Greco in Thielke’s case) be for the 7 minute folkstyle grind? I think very well. I think one of the toughest transitions from high school to college wrestling is hand fighting and matching physicality of the more mature college wrestlers. I think we will see this skill up to par for most of these guys. Will their mat skills suffer? Possibly. The transition from par terre to traditional top and bottom wrestling is tough, but all these guys have wrestled years of folkstyle. I don’t anticipate them suddenly forgetting a stand up or break down. It is possible they’ll be less prolific in these areas, but not to the point where it becomes a glaring weakness.
I think the OTC route will prove to be a great option for guys interested in wrestling in college down the line. As far as prognosticating the individual guys, I think if I had to order them based on how successful they’ll be this year it’d go something like this:
Destin McCauley-He was battling some injuries this year, but last year we saw him school a field that included Dylan Ness, Hunter Stieber and Jason Tsirtsis. If he wrestles this year, the sky's the limit. He could win this year. He’s that good and 149 (provided there’s no Kendric Maple) is not great. Nebraska has some flexibility with their middleweights with Jake Sueflohn, James Green and Destin all having red shirts still available. I just have a feeling we see Destin right away.
Jesse Thielke-This guy is just an animal physically. He’s very strong, but might be wrestling above his ideal weight class (141) due to Tyler Graff being at 133. Thielke is our Greco World Team rep at 60 KG (132.5) so it’s pretty likely he’s not having too much Folkstyle training right now. He wrestled 133 last year and lost to pretty much every relevant guy he faced (Beckman, Mango, Schopp) except for his 10-9 win over Scotti Sentes. Again, it seems obvious that Jesse is a 33 pounder who will be thrust into duty up a weight. One of Jesse’s best attributes is his strength, and I’m afraid that will be negated (to a degree) at 141. So consider my expectations a bit tempered. Right now I view him as a Round of 12 type of guy.
Patrick Downey-I really have a hard time knowing what to make of Downey. I’ve watched a good bit of his Freestyle stuff (World Junior Silver) and he’s awesome, but there isn’t too much recent Folkstyle stuff against proven guys to know really what we’re getting. I know he used to really like upper body stuff, but he seems to be more of a complete wrestler at this point. I think it’s possible he can place this year. I think it’s just as likely this is a year of transition for him where he takes some time getting his Folkstyle chops back.
Earl Hall-Hall will look to fare a little better than the last True Freshman 133 ISU threw out there (John Meeks). Both guys are talented wrestlers, but I feel the OTC will help Earl do far better than Meeks was able to do last year. Meeks had glimpses at times, but looked like someone in need of a redshirt to really be up to par. Hall will be a nice prospect, but unfortunately this weight is super deep so I see him probably outside the round of 12.
Willie Miklus-I’ve actually seen a good bit of Miklus and think he’s a solid prospect. He’s got a nice build for a 197 and has a nice variety of attacks. I want to see him shoot and finish more high percentage stuff before I make any major proclamations. I would expect a season similar to the one Nathan Burak just had. I just don’t see him having the offense to make major waves right now.
Regardless of my expectations, one year of results is far from an amount of time to formulate an indictment or endorsement of the OTC. These guys will be mixing it up for the first year so there will be a learning curve regardless of their training environment. I think these guys all will have fine careers and ultimately wind up on the podium. Some guys are just more ready than others.
#8 Will Any True Freshman Make an Impact This Year?
To answer this one you have to look at two different questions: 1) Was this wrestler elite in high school? and 2) Will he be wrestling varsity this year? A guy like Bo Jordan looks about as D1 ready as a kid can be coming out of high school, but Coach Ryan has already said the plan is to redshirt.
To specify a little better about my criteria, I’m not including the OTC guys or Cornell guys who will be eligibility wise “True Freshman.” Rather, I’m just looking at the wrestlers just out of high school.
So between Bo Jordan (Ohio State), Adam Coon (Michigan), Zain Retherford(Penn State), Isaiah Martinez (Illinois), Joey Dance (Virginia Tech), J’Den Cox (Missouri), Anthony Ashnault (Rutgers), Brooks Black (Illinois) and Nathan Tomasello (Ohio State), I think we will probably only see Joey Dance thrust into action. Brooks Black would make sense considering Illinois’ lack of depth at heavyweight, but Coach Perry tends to give his guys redshirts.
One name to watch out for if he gets on the mat is Amarveer Dhesi. Dhesi turned heads when he dominated FILA Junior’s including a beat-down of Adam Coon. If he gets the green light, his neutral game looks to be on par with some of the best heavyweights in NCAA. He very well could be a True Freshman AA for the Beavers of Oregon State.
I think Joey Dance is going to have a nice career for Virginia Tech. That being said, I think his game is a bit limited at this point. Dance is unreal athletically from a balance and body awareness standpoint. However, he lacks the ability to get to legs consistently against elite competition. He relies on his ducks, shrugs (which all certainly have their place) and great defense to beat the best guys. He may have some bottom struggles as well and he offers very little in the area of turns at this point. I think Dance will be a guy who gets ranked in the 15-20 range this year and may be able to notch an upset or two, but right now his game is a bit too limited. Sky is the limit though, and Coach Dresser has done a great job of developing guys the last few years.
One other guy to keep your eye out for is Cody Wiercioch. It looks possible that he could be thrust into duty right away and is listed at 165 for the Panthers. With Tyler Wilps up at 174 the Panthers look to be lacking quality options apart from Cody. I view Wiercioch as a complete wrestler skilled in all phases of wrestling. He gave Chance Marsteller a match that will probably wind up being the most challenging match of Marsteller’s entire career. Cody is tough on his feet with leg attacks, but is skilled in short offense as well. 165 is not an especially deep or talent-rich weight this year so this obviously will aid Cody’s transition.
While we are talking about Pitt Panthers, I would be remiss to not include Edgar Bright. I’m high on Edgar as a prospect, and while I’m sure a redshirt season would help his prospects down the line, I think his high school career has prepared him well for the some of the rigors of D1 wrestling. The St. Ed’s grappler spent four years wrestling the nation’s elite. Though he never won a state title, he has beaten some high quality guys(Ashnault, Retherford and Cisneros to name a few). Technically Edgar is a bit of a work in progress. He won’t have many offerings from the mat, at least initially. I still think he gives his legs up a bit too much though his hips are strong and he uses his stocky build to fire of singles and doubles. I think he will qualify this year and set himself up well to have success later down the line.
While it’s a solid crop of guys I don’t see any True Freshman taking the country by storm and if I had to answer how many True Freshman might place this year Id probably say 0 and feel fairly confident about it. If I had assurance that Dhesi was going to wrestle, I’d feel more confident in saying 1. Of course every year you see redshirts pulled from guys that we didn’t realize would wrestle so this list is obviously far from being all inclusive.
#7 What to Make of the New Look Oklahoma Sooners?
Coach Ryan of Ohio State may be taking a page out of the Mark Cody playbook leaving some big talent on the bench in order to put out a group of studs the next year.
Last year Coach Cody redshirted Jarrod Patterson, Andrew Howe and Travis Rutt. This year we will see an Oklahoma lineup chalked full of talent from top to bottom. Coach Cody has a breadth of options as far as his lineup is concerned. Could Maple and Brewer go up? Could Rutt be at 197 (wrestled at 211 this Spring)? Will DeAngelis circumvent Matt Lester for the 157 spot? Will the loser go to 165?
Lots of options and I won’t attempt to take a stab at what this lineup might look like. All you need to know is that Andrew Howe, Kendric Maple, Travis Rutt, Jarrod Patterson, Cody Brewer will seemingly all take the lineup for the Sooners next year. The Lester’s and DeAngelis will provide quality depth but at this point can’t be counted on for All American production. Though Nick Lester notched an All American finish previously, he has not shown the improvements or results that would suggest that was anything more than an outlier.
So is this team a title contender? I don’t think so. Yes they have two potential champs coming into the fold, but I think the weights where they aren’t great, they could really struggle. 165, 184 or 197 (depends on Rutt) and 285 will all be minimal contributors not ready to push Oklahoma over the top. Still this could be a team that, if everyone clicks at the right time, could push for a trophy.
#6 Who is the Biggest “Lock” to Win an NCAA Title?
David Taylor. This is not a proclamation of Taylor being better than Ruth, Stieber, etc. (Check the p4p rankings later this Fall for those). This is all about probabilities. Now, is there such a thing as a lock? Of course not, but I think you understand the point I’m making. Assuming we see Taylor at 165 again the toughest and most accomplished opponent will be someone he majored (Tyler Caldwell). Not only that, but Caldwell is the clear #2 by a pretty wide margin. So there’s not the depth of talent behind Caldwell that would cause any concern. Taylor could very well bonus through his entire NCAA tournament (again). I’m actually expecting it.
To truly evaluate who has the best shot at winning this year, you have to look at all the guys who you think will win, and the difficulty of their path. Ed Ruth to me is the clear #2 even though there may be a bit more competition. Kevin Steinhaus (Minnesota) gave Ruth a tight match in the Big 10’s. Kevin is really one of the only guys remaining who will even push Ruth to break a sweat, but (in my opinion) that’s one more guy pushing him than Taylor will have. Like 165 his weight doesn’t have elite up and comers who will challenge either.
Though Tony Nelson (Minnesota) may be a tough watch at times, the guy knows who he is. Nelson is next to impossible to take down, tough to ride, and darn near impossible to get away from on bottom. With the graduation of Bradley (Missouri) and Gelogaev(Oklahoma State) I don’t see anyone capable of challenging Nelson for his 3rd title. That being said he’s in tons of tight matches, so he’s tougher to call a “lock” than Ruth and Taylor who separate.
#5 What Will Minnesota’s Lineup Look Like this Year from 125-157?
This team has the potential to be able to unseat (as I’ll mention later) PSU this year. However, there’s some serious lineup uncertainty that is swirling around this team.
It is well documented that 125 is a pretty big haul for All-American David Thorn. What has been suggested is that the entire lightweights would shift up a weight. As in Thorn-133, C. Dardanes-141, N. Dardanes-149, Ness-157.
I’m not a fan of this move if I’m a Minnesota supporter. It may have been debatable at some point that Chris Dardanes wasn’t as good as David Thorn. At this point, it has been established that Thorn hasn't performed as well as Dardanes, and with that he would not project well as a 133. With the depth at 133 it is certainly feasible that he doesn’t even make the round of 12. It took a pretty convenient run of opponents for Thorn to be an AA at a much weaker 125. At 133 he’s probably what he was at 125 just with more talent in front of him.
With the potential move of Thorn up the Dardanes twins move up to 141 and 149 respectively. I view length as a fairly important attribute, and I think the twins wouldn’t have a great transition up a weight. However, I will say that both guys have a great shot at placing at both weights. I think Chris would struggle for a top 5 finish at 141 with Stieber, Maple, Carter, Port and Ugi all back. 149 will be weaker than 141 is and honestly Nick has top 4 or 5 potential at this weight. This weight doesn’t have the great riders that 141 has that typically given Nick fits.
Where this plan of moving everyone up really takes potential points off the board is moving Ness up to 157. Ness goes from potentially the favorite to win 149 to probably the 5th best 157 (behind DSJ, Green, Dieringer, Alton). Certainly he could do better than that, but he struggled with much worse wrestlers last year. So while their 157 prospects will be improved compared to Zilverberg (who is still very solid), they eliminate a potential title and also create a hole at 125 with Thorn not being there.
Obviously I am far from being privy to weigh-in information and how hard the cuts were for the different Gophers. It’s possible all 4 of those guys were cutting weigh too much weight and desperately need to move up to reach their full potential.
From where I’m sitting, in a vacuum the best Gopher lineup would be:
125-David Thorn
133-Chris Dardanes
141-Nick Dardanes
149-Dylan Ness
157-Danny Zilverberg
165-Dylan Reel
174-Logan Storley
184-Kevin Steinhaus
197-Scott Schiller
285-Tony Nelson
Deviating from this, in my opinion, eliminates them from title contention. The Gophers have been hanging their hat on putting out a complete lineup and I think their 125 and 133 prospects look fairly dim if Thorn moves up.
#4 Is Andrew Howe the Favorite at 174?
I’ve been fairly brazen in my prognostications for Andrew Howe this year. I’ve always been a huge fan of his game. He got a bit of an unfair reputation early as a guy who doesn’t score much, but looking back to when he was healthy as a Sophomore he really separated from guys. He is not the bonus machine of Ruth, Taylor or Stieber. However, he can widen the gap on guys.
Andrew is stepping into an already competitive and talented weight class that will have last years champ (Chris Perry) set to return at that weight. We’ve had a few glimpses of Andrew since he tore his ACL in the Olympic Trials Finals against Jordan Burroughs. At Universities he wrestled at 174 and absolutely laid waste to a field that had Matt Brown and Logan Storley. Howe teched Storley two times in the final matches. We saw an Andrew Howe who had great movement, pace, and of course brutal hand fighting. His ability to get to legs and finish will be up there with the best guys in the country. Technically you’ll be hard pressed to find a better technician on his feet with set ups, attacks and re-shots. He is fine on the mat in that he is very rarely ridden, though he is not particularly prolific on top, he can rack up riding time through his TD-and-release game.
At the World Team Trials back down at 74 KG(163.5) we saw, in my opinion, a different Andrew Howe. I thought he looked a bit more sluggish, seemed to wear out, and had some poor shots/attempts that left him more vulnerable than I’m used to seeing. This could be attributed to a few factors. 1) He was facing better competition. Dake, Paulson, Taylor, Burroughs all were in the bracket. 2) He was down to 163.5 competing for the first time in a year. I think the reason we saw Howe struggle were a combination of the weight cut possibly taking its toll and the competition being improved. He looked better in previous years down there than he did this season. He went from the guy knocking at the door against Burroughs to being 4th on the ladder. Andrew Howe didn’t forget how to be great (see Universities), but maybe he can’t be great at 163 anymore? He was noticeably more muscular on what was already a very well put-together frame.
I think we will see the Howe from Universities. Eating well and yet hungry to go out on top, I don’t see anyone having the skills to get the takedown or ride they’ll need to beat Howe. Additionally, I don’t see many guys keeping Howe at bay for an entire 7 minutes. Simply put: They’re not taking him down, and he’s taking you down. You can’t ride him. Howe will win this weight, and I don’t think there will be a blemish on his record, health permitting. The question of health is legitimate since he had a significant hamstring injury as well as an ACL tear. I’m banking on him keeping healthy all year long.
#3 Who Will be this Year's “Dake v. Taylor?”
Ok, dumb question and a ridiculous standard for any one match to ever be compared to. That being said every year we have those matchups we can’t wait to see. I remember the Metcalf v. Schlatter hype reached epic proportions a few years ago. Ruth v. Amuchastegui, Robles v. McDonough and David Taylor v. Bubba Jenkins were all highly anticipated matches that most wrestling fans loved talking about and predicting. To a lesser extent many fans were especially intrigued last year in the Stieber v. Ramos matchup as well.
It’s not very often you can potentially have two national champs squaring off, but that could potentially be the case if Kendric Maple stays down at 141 this year. The Logan Stieber v. Kendric Maple matchup is far and away the most intriguing and most talent-rich match up for wrestling fans this year.
The questions now are: When can we see this match, and who would win? There’s always a shot we get to see this one at the All-Star match. Certainly both guys will be invited, but it’s not always possible to get both guys there. Here’s hoping we get an early sneak peak. If not, in all odds we are waiting for NCAA’s to see these two mix it up. That’s a bummer, yet the excitement of the unknown building to the finale of the NCAA finals is just phenomenal drama.
Now, who wins? Last year although I picked Hunter Steiber to beat Maple, Stieber was not up to the task at NCAA’s all tournament long from what I could tell and the moment appeared to get the better of him. Meanwhile, Maple went unchallenged throughout the tournament.
Maple brings tremendous strength and agility coupled with phenomenal counters from neutral. On top he is an extremely gifted rider who gets your wrist and has no interest in giving it back. He’s great from tilts and can be tough to ride. At times he has shown to have a somewhat suspect tank, but this is nitpicking at best. I am excited for this matchup because it puts two guys who rely so heavily on their physical strength.
Logan is as offensively gifted as any guy in the game today. He has a great single as well as a double leg to complement his low ankle attacks and upper body throw-by’s. Combine that with being strong as a horse and possibly the best top wrestler in the sport he’s more than a handful. I like Logan to win with his relentless pace and bevy of attacks. This isn’t the first time I’ve picked against Maple(and admittedly I’ve been burnt by it before) so maybe I’m just late to the show with him. I think he’s great, phenomenal actually. He’s just going up against a future All-Timer and potentially a 4 time champ. I like Logan, close.
#2 How Much Impact Will the Guys Coming Off of Redshirt Have?
In my mind there's tons of talent coming off redshirt. I’ll try to briefly go weight-by-weight the guys I think will have impacts this year. This is not an all-inclusive list of every redshirt last year. These are the guys I see coming in, making noise and competing for a spot on the podium.
At 125 there’s a really nice crop of guys coming off of Redshirt. Cory Clark is the cream of the crop guy with Jarrod Patterson and Anthony Zanetta at 2 and 3 respectively. Joe Roth is a real quality guy from CMU as well. Clark beat Delgado, Patterson, Sprenkle, Boyle, Gilman all last year. Patterson is a 2 time All American who doesn’t have the highest ceiling, but also has a low floor as well. Zanetta beat Megaludis last year and also has 2 wins over Alan Waters, so the pedigree and ability is certainly there.
133 has a ton of studs that are difficult to differentiate from. Ryan Mango returns up a weight. Mark Grey, Mason Beckman and Jimmy Gulibon had a unique triangle of very mixed results among the three. I think all 4 of these guys have All American potential. Zane Richards and Johnni DiJulius are also very note-worthy guys who had solid seasons.
The highlight returnee to 141 will be VA’s own Devin Carter. Devin had a great redshirt season in both folkstyle and free. He should be a top 5 guy this year. Super-recruit and Greco World Team member Jesse Thielke looks to be the 141 this year for the Badgers. I’m not sure if he has the goods to place just yet as I felt he relied too much on his exceptional defense and counters. The kid is a beast though and him placing should shock nobody. Iowa’s Josh Dziewa, Kent States Tyler Small and Michigans Stephen Dutton all could be quality guys with the potential to make noise nationally (yeah that’s really an ambiguous statement, but it’s as resolute as I could be talking about those guys).
There are a few guys at 149 I’m particularly excited to see. Jason Tsirtsis looked to be close to D1 ready coming out of high school. That being said, he is a very defensive wrestler who will need his own offense to make the jump. Josh Kindig suffered an injury this Spring and I’m not completely sure of the severity. I have always been pretty high on him though, and think he’s an All American if healthy this year.
The 157 crop isn’t as deep as others but has some quality newcomers, but Brian Realbuto had a solid RS season coupled with some very nice freestyle results this Spring. Couple that with his training situation at Cornell he could be a dark horse to place this season. Ian Miller showed all the promise in the world his True Freshman season, but had pretty muddled results as a redshirt. Originally I thought he’d be a surefire AA, but looking over his season, I’m less sure.
I am not sure where Isaac Jordan will be this year. Based on his success at 157, it would seem that it would be there, but he wrestled a fair amount at 165 as well, so I’ll just give him his own little paragraph. He had a fabulous Midlands showing beating Jesse Dong, Roger Pena, Taylor Walsh and Walter Peppelman. Regardless of what weight he goes, I think he will have a very nice season.
For whatever reason as we get higher in weights the depth of talent dwindles a bit. At 165 I see Dylan Reel for Minnesota and Jackson Morse from Illinois as the guys who will have impacts. Not sure I see either guy as AA’s. I’ve been irrationally high on Morse for some time now, but I’m beginning to wonder if he’s going to pan out. Who am I kidding? I think he’ll be good, he’s talented and coached by Mark Perry. Let the irrational love continue! Not sure what weight Nebraska’s Micah Barnes goes, but I’d guess he’s a 165 with Kokesh clearly being entrenched as the Husker 174. He could be a tough guy who did have a win over Jordan Blanton last year.
174 is short and sweet. Andrew Howe is back for Oklahoma, and he is going to be nasty.
184- Ok back with a really solid weight and lots of guys to choose from. I think Kenny Courts (Ohio State) has a lot of potential and could have a breakout year. Vic Avery(Edinboro) and Jordan Rogers(Oklahoma State) still might be a year away from contention but both have the chops to have impacts for their team.
I’m giving Travis Rutt his own little island as well. Wrestled last year at 184, but just wrestled at 211 for Freestyle, so it seems possible he could go 197. I like him to place at either weight honestly.
At 197 I love (as you already know) Morgan McIntosh coming back this year. Watching his film and looking at his results I’d be pretty shocked to see him not place this year. I think he has a legitimate chance to win it all.
I’m a huge Gwiazdowski (NC State) fan and have been for some time now I thought he had AA potential as his True Freshman year. He’s only gotten bigger and better in the year off looking great in Freestyle. He’s not a title contender probably, but I’d say he will have a nice high AA finish if I were a betting man. Additionally, I think Austin Marsden (Oklahoma State) is bound for the podium as well. While not an auspicious of an option as Gelogaev, nor near as exciting, Austin will bring his solid positioning and traditional heavyweight values and I think ultimately place this year. Maryland All American Spencer Myers returns as well.
Lots of new guys with some great impact-potential.
#1 Is There Anyone Who Can Unseat PSU?
Short answer is of course it is possible. My answer would be not very likely. To really answer this question you have to look at who are the top contenders to challenge this team. Last year I didn’t give any teams much of a shot for upsetting PSU. Low and behold a bizarre Alan Gelogaev slip-up was the difference between Oklahoma State knocking off the Nittany Lions (though of course many little things could be attributed, that was the big moment in my opinion). So it is very possible that I had over-rated PSU before (and perhaps underrated Oklahoma State). That being said, Oklahoma State is losing Oliver and Gelogaev.
While the Cowboys have very competent replacements coming in in Josh Kindig and Austin Marsden, those two are simply not the caliber of wrestlers that Oliver and Z were. Factor in that they’ll have a relatively unproven 184 replacement for the talented Chris Chionuma in either Jordan Rogers or Kyle Crutchmer and the odds become a bit longer still. Both guys were big time recruits, yet did little to strike confidence in my mind that they were ready to compete for a spot on the podium. So in my mind Oklahoma State, while formidable, will not have the guns to compete with Penn State.
I suppose I would be remiss to not include the Hawkeyes as being in the mix to potentially pull off the upset. They inject Cory Clark to replace McDonough. Clark had a phenomenal redshirt season beating a host of All Americans including Jesse Delgado 6-1. Josh Dziewa should finally crack the starting lineup on a permanent basis at 141. This team could be a bit like Minnesota was last year with quite a few All Americans but lacking the title contenders to push them over the top. The only weight I’m ruling out a shot at the podium is the Ghost of Brent Metcalf AKA 149. This weight has just been bad luck over and over again between Anthony Baldosaro leaving, Jake Ballweg leaving, Dylan Carews injury problems, Nate Skonieczny leaving and now Edwin Cooper not coming, it just doesn’t look good for this year. There is some long-term hope coming in Brandon Sorenson, but he will need a year in the room to be a podium contender.
From where I’m sitting the number one contender this year is Minnesota. They have a bevy of returning points with 8 AA’s that should be in the lineup (Thorn, Dardanes x2, Ness, Storley, Steinhaus, Schiller, Nelson). Zilverberg really came on at 157 and is a darkhorse candidate to place this year. 165 looks like Dylan Reel who showed some promise last year beating AA Cody Yohn. This is a rock solid lineup anchored by Tony Nelson who is among the most likely champs of any weight this year. I think Ness(or some other guy) has to step up for this team to win as we’ve seen how having top-heavy finishes correlate to success.(PSU 5 AA’s all in finals last year).
The problem is this. Penn State has two guys like Tony Nelson. They also score crazy amounts of bonus points. They also will have 6 dynamite blue chippers and seasoned vets ready to go. This has the potential to be the best Penn State team of the Cael era. Don’t get me wrong, just because Morgan McIntosh is good, I’m not saying he can match Quentin’s production from last year. That being said, McIntosh will wrestle in a much weaker 197 weight class this year(Killer, Wilps, Hernandez, Burak all gone). He is a title contender in my mind. I’ll write plenty about Ruth and Taylor this year, so I’ll only say that having them on this team is an absurd advantage.
I’ve been high on the Alton brothers historically, and though both under-achieved last year to a degree(Andrew moreso than Dylan), I don’t foresee them both being off the podium ever again. Their season had a good deal of turbulence and distraction(some their fault, some not). I think a year of getting them healthy and hungry from being off the podium get’s them back reminding us why they were such sought after recruits. I see them both on the podium this year, Andrew simply because of the weakness of 149 and Dylan because he’s just that good.
Brown and Megaludis are guys who I view as low-floor, high-ceiling guys. Megaludis might not win, but I’d be pretty surprised to see him out of the top 4. Brown maybe could slip a little further back by the nature of 174, but I don’t see him as a guy likely to not be on the podium.
The Nittany Lions have 2 weights that I think are going to be minimal contributors to the cause. I didn’t understand last year Cael using Lawson instead of Gingrich. Gingrich had better wins(Delaney by MD, Chalfant and McClure) and looked to be overall the better guy. Maybe Cael and staff was a bit enamored by the potential that Lawson has, but last year it was just that, potential. Gingrich was by nearly all measurables(from an outsiders) the better guy, just didn’t get the nod. Obviously Cael has more insight and a better gut/feel for coaching than I’ll ever understand. That being said, great coaches can make mistakes, and going with Lawson over Gingrich last year, I felt was one. So all that to say, I don’t know who goes 285 for PSU and I would say both have a chance to slip on the podium, though it is probably an outside shot at best.
At 141, it is somewhat unclear which direction Cael might go. Obviously there is speculation on whether we will see Zain Retherford out there for his True Freshman season. I wouldn’t understand this choice barring injuries to the apparent next in line Zach Beitz. This is a team that should win this year, and I would much rather have Zain’s 5th year as a Nittany Lion than his first year where there will undoubtedly be a learning curve. I think for all his heart and skill he will still be an undersized 141(have you SEEN Kendric Maple?). The difference between him and Beitz will probably be mostly negligible on the national scene. Beitz won’t be great, but he’ll be solid enough and may even qualify. That should be good enough to get it done.
I’m very interested to see if my prediction turns out to be true and Penn State out-does their scoring from the last 3 seasons. I think it is their most talented line-up yet and will take the obvious combination of under-performing by PSU and out-performing by someone else to unseat Cael and Co.
Thank you for reading! I hope this get’s you excited for the season coming up! Go hit a few stand ups in your living room! It will help pass the time between now and November.
CP