FloWrestling.org We’re a little past the halfway point in what has been a turbulent college wrestling season. No team has really been able to establish dominance as even the top ranked Iowa Hawkeyes have a blemish on their record. Individually, few weight classes have true favorites that have separated themselves from the pack. This couldn’t be any better for college wrestling. Although team strength is still concentrated in the hands of the few, a kid from pretty much any wrestling program in the country could win a national title. The fact that there are so many talented wrestlers spread out all over the NCAA is a sign of the overall health of wrestling. The ever expanding popularity of high school wrestling, especially in non traditional areas is being felt in college. There are top five wrestlers from Cal-Poly, Michigan State, Harvard, American, and Navy. Parity is a good thing and needs to be embraced by college wrestling aficionados for two reasons. First, it’s a sign that the sport is growing. Second, it’s here to stay. Here’s my quick assessment of each weight class so far, and what you can expect to see down the road. 125 The contenders: There seems to be three names kicked around as serious threats to win in March in this top heavy weight class. Possibly the most impressive season thus far in all of college wrestling belongs to Jayson Ness of Minnesota, who has 16 pins under his belt already. He’s a classic power-125, big for the weight class, dominant half series from top, clamps down once he smells blood. His polar opposite is Angel Escobedo, who is as little and slick as Ness is big and powerful. Both are undefeated, but since Indiana and Minnesota do not wrestle this year, we’ll have to wait for Big Tens for the top seed at 125 to emerge. But lurking in the back is Paul Donahue, the defending champion from Nebraska. Donahue certainly hasn’t blown the competition away, but he’s a gamer and don’t think we won’t hear plenty from him in March. What about: Charlie Falck? Apparently the Iowa hype machine has missed a wrestler. Falck has quietly put together a national championship caliber season. But for some reason, Ness, Escobedo, and Donahue are the only names that come up in the national championship picture, which is probably exactly how Falck would like it. Don’t be surprised to see him in finals. Dark horse AA: Steve Mytych of Drexel has crept up to 11th in the rankings without many people taking notice. Mytych is a seasoned wrestler who is incredibly strong. Drexel had Ryan Hluschak come out of nowhere last year to All American at 157, and fellow Lehigh Valley alum Mytych could follow that trend. The Pick: Escobedo is a pleasure to watch, and continues Indiana’s (okay, Joe Dubuque’s) recent dominance of 125. 133 The contenders: This is a weight class where a clear favorite has emerged. Oklahoma State’s Coleman Scott has been a man on fire since an early season loss to Lou Ruggirello. It looks like everybody here is chasing Scott, who has the skills on his feet that it takes to run through March. The sentimental favorite here is Minnesota’s Mack Reiter who overcame a brutal ACL injury last year. He’s an all attack, all the time wrestler, which is what college wrestling needs. The other two potential finalists I see are Joey Slaton, the first of many Hokieyes who have made a serious difference for Tom Brand’s squad this year, and Franklin Gomez, who seems to have some fire in his belly after being left at home for last year’s NCAA Tournament. What about: Mike Grey you ask? After seeing Scott take it to him in Vegas finals (which I realize won’t be used at the seeding meeting) I have to think that Grey is a year away from really contending for a title, despite his #3 ranking. Dark horse: Could Kenny Jordan sneak into finals? Nebraska is going to need a big effort from someone to try and overtake Iowa and Oklahoma State and Jordan is talented enough to make this run. Working out with Paul Donahue every day helps, and Donahue can share a thing or two about peaking in March. The pick: I’ve seen him wrestle since he was a sophomore in high school, and despite rooting hard against him all three years at Pennsylvania States, I think and hope that Coleman Scott wins it all this year. 141 The contenders: Who knows what to think here? One through ten in the rankings could win a national title. The highest returning placer is Charles Griffin from Hofstra. His rivalry with Okie State’s Nathan Morgan is probably the best subplot in this weight class. Kellen Russell is the best true freshman in the country, but I’m hesitant to pick him to win it all. After all, it’s a big stage for a freshman. Chad Mendes is the only undefeated wrestler left, and is the best wrestler that nobody has really seen compete. If you get a chance, find his match with Manny Rivera. I also could see Jake Strayer, J Jaggers, or Dan LeClere making a serious run here. Most wide open weight this season. What about: With so much parity, there really isn’t anyone overlooked this year. Dark horse: Matt Kyler from Army. You’ll be hard pressed to find a tougher kid in any weight class in the country. And you have to imagine that once he starts making a run, the whole crowd in St. Louis will get behind the kid from West Point. But don’t let his non-power school fool you, Kyler can really wrestle. I have a hunch he’ll find his way onto the podium. The pick: Your guess is as good as mine. Twist my arm and I’ll pick Griffin, giving the 2004 Pennsylvania 125 pound weight class two national champions (he lost in finals to Coleman Scott). Don’t be surprised to see J Jaggers in finals either. He’s got boatloads of talent, and just might be healthy enough to put it together. 149 The contenders: No weight class receives more attention. Brent Metcalf-Dustin Schlatter is what everybody wants to see in finals. I’ll devote an entire column to the clash of titans next week, so I’ll skip ranting about the match up this week. Although there is an abundance of worthy wrestlers here (Caldwell, Jenkins, Burroughs, Churella, Lang, O’Connor, Palmer) I think fate will pit Metcalf and Schlatter in finals. Although Ryan Lang has the best chance to disrupt that. What about: J.P. O’Connor? He has very quietly ascended to third in the rankings. Harvard being in the EIWA certainly has something to do with that, but make no mistake about it, he’s for real. Along with Lang, I like his chances the best to upset one of the big two. He matches up particularly well against Schlatter. Dark horse: Speaking of the EIWA, Harvard isn’t the only team with a supremely talented 149 pounder. Cesear Grajales has burst onto the scene as a sophomore at Penn. Although I think 149 is way too deep for an outsider to crack the podium, I like Grajales to win enough matches to turn some heads and build momentum for next year. The pick: At this point in the year, nobody looks as good as Brent Metcalf. But to me, he looks like a Zack Esposito style match up for Schlatter. Dustin could neutralize him. One thing I will predict, is that they will split Big Tens and Nationals. One won’t go undefeated against the other. 157 The contenders: Much like 125, this looks to me like a three horse race. Unlike 125, I see Illinois’ Mike Poeta as being Secretariat in this horse race. Poeta has been incredible this season. He won a thriller early in the year over Edinboro’s Gregor Gillespie and seems to have figured out Wisconsin’s Craig Henning. I’d even go as far to say that Poeta is better on his feet than anybody in America. But nobody can score from top like Gillespie, who, not for anything, is a defending NCAA champion. He’s not going to give away that distinction too easily. Henning also is a seasoned veteran with finals experience. What about: Jordan Leen? I tend to forget he’s even up at 157. He was the chic pick last year to unseat Schlatter at 149, but has fallen off of everybody’s radar this year. He’s good enough to own a win over Gregor Gillespie, and all that talent didn’t disappear over the course of the year. Dark horse: Just like 133, this is a weight where Cornhusker could make waves. This is another weight that Nebraska needs to score major team points in if they want to make a serious run at a National Title. Don’t be surprised if Chris Oliver sneaks onto the podium here to fuel the upset hopes. The pick: Poeta in what might be the most entertaining final of the tournament. Every one of the big guns here is explosive and loves to score. Make sure you tune in for this one. 165 The contenders: Mark Perry, Eric Tannenbaum, and the young bucks. Despite a few hiccups, Perry has a fantastic shot at repeating. He owns wins over almost all of the top guys, most in convincing fashion. The lone exception is a troubling loss to Oklahoma State’s Jake Dieffenbach, which is a chink in Perry’s armor. Michigan’s Tannenbaum has been knocking on the door for years now and looks primed to make his first finals appearance. Beyond that, it’s a young weight class. Mack Lewnes, Jon Reader, Nick Marable, and Colt Sponsellor all have had flashes of brilliance, and could unseat either of the old guys. What about: Matt Coughlin from Indiana? He knocked off Matt Storniolo last year on his way to a 7th place finish at NCAA’s. Granted that was two weight classes down, but Coughlin is still a force to be reckoned with, despite being off everybody’s radar screen. Dark horse: Edinboro’s Jarrod King is the type of wrestler that always manages to surprise people at the tournament. He’s a senior with plenty of experience and savvy. The transfer closer to home seems to have suited him well. He knows how to wrestle, especially in close, grind it out tournament matches. He’ll factor in one way or another. The pick: Until proven otherwise, Mark Perry is the champ. Especially with the Iowa mindset that seems to have taken over that entire team, he’s not going to give up that distinction very easily. 174 The contenders: After being somewhat of a surprise finalist last year, Pitt’s Keith Gavin has absolutely rolled through the field so far at 174. It’s tough to envision anybody beating him this year, unless Ben Askren is granted an emergency fifth year. Michigan’s Steve Luke may be able to slow the match down enough to make it a one takedown affair, Oklahoma State’s Brandon Mason has some serious firepower, Hofstra’s Alton Lucas seems to have finally figured out how good he really is, and Iowa’s Jay Borschel has burst onto the scene, but Gavin is the clear cut favorite. What about: Brandon Sinnott? The whole Central Michigan crew doesn’t get a ton of respect. They may be the most balanced team in the country, and Sinnott has put together a fantastic year. Much like his team, he deserves much more hype than he actually gets. Dark horse: Mike Letts has the chance to be Maryland’s first All American in a long time. Fantastic on his feet and strong as an ox, Letts is a nightmare quarterfinal match up for one of the highly seeded wrestlers in this bracket. The pick: It’s not creative or daring, but Keith Gavin is going to win this weight class. 184 The contenders: Much like 174, the whole pack seems to be chasing one wrestler. Jake Varner has improved by leaps and bounds since last year, which is saying a lot since he was the runner up as a freshman. Pound for pound, nobody in the country is stronger, and the workouts with Cael seem to be paying off. He already has defeated defending champion Jake Herbert, rival Roger Kish on multiple occasions, and everybody else who has stepped on the mat with him. A lot of people complain that Varner stalls, but that is just because nobody can move him. Tyrell Todd and Mike Pucillio may give him a run for his money, but that will take a Herculean effort. What about: Raymond Jordan? Last year I would have said he’s a year away. He beat Varner in Big 12 Finals, but Varner is a different wrestler now. But Jordan is as slick as they come for 184 and may be able to catch lightning in a bottle at NCAA’s. Dark horse: Part of the nice thing about being a freshman is that nobody takes you seriously. That is especially true when competing at Boise State and completely out of the national spotlight. But make no mistake, Kirk Smith can wrestle. Boise State is quietly building itself in a contender. Ben Cherrington’s national title helped set the wheels in motion. Kirk Smith making a run to a high finish will only help that. The pick: Not exactly going out on a limb here, but my money is on Varner. 197 The contenders: Just like 149, the final seems almost predetermined. Josh Glenn is the defending national champion. He defeated Mike Tamillow in a classic at Midlands in his only real test of the year. He has cruised to an undefeated record, which puts him on a collision course with fellow unbeaten Phil Davis from Penn State. Davis has destroyed anything that has come in his path, with bonus points in almost every win. Davis is a freak athlete who is dangerous from every position imaginable. Although 197 is one of the deepest classes this year, these two have risen above the pack. What about: Hudson Taylor? He was a win away from being an All American last year. No big man can ride like Maryland’s Taylor, who is among the national leaders in pins. He also can grind matches out on his feet. He’s ranked highly, but competing in the ACC keeps his publicity down. Dark horse: Patrick Bond from Illinois had one of the most illustrious prep careers in recent memory. It seems like he’s been around forever, yet he’s only a sophomore. Bond is incredibly long and tough to score on, which is a combination that works in the tournament, where every match is a nail biter. My only question is whether he can generate enough offense. The pick: Maybe it’s because I’ve seen more of him, but there is no way I see anybody beating Phil Davis, not even Josh Glenn. Whoever wins this final will walk away with the Hodge Trophy as well. 285 The contenders: There is a fantastic clash of styles between the two top dogs at heavyweight. Northwestern’s Dustin Fox is the classic big bruising heavyweight. He’s a huge man, and so far has beaten up on everybody. Ohio State’s J.D. Bergman is a much smaller, more athletic heavyweight. I said at the beginning of the year that I thought bumping up from 197 was a great move, and Bergman has proved me right. He lost once to Fox already, but they will meet plenty more this season, hopefully including finals. What about: Jared Rosholt? He’s a bigger version of his brother, which very well might include a tremendous ability to produce in March. Although I don’t see him winning three titles, he has to be in the conversation to make a finals appearance this season. Dark horse: Mike Spaid of Bloomsburg is a big heavyweight who likes to hit home runs. Spaid is a pinner, which makes him a nightmare match up at NCAA’s. No matter how far down he is, he’s always in the match. He’ll finish higher than everybody thinks. The pick: I love the Tommy Rowlands, Kerry McCoy style heavyweight. J.D. Bergman fits that mold perfectly. I would love to see him knock off Fox and bring back the athletic heavyweight. Team Race: Unless Nebraska or Oklahoma State gets some incredible performances from unheralded wrestlers, the title will end up in Iowa. Tom Brands will get his first of many National Coach of the Year honors. He’s done a fabulous job with this team, who look like vintage, Gable-era Hawkeyes.