Penn State is the consensus favorite to win the NCAA D1 college wrestling team championship next March. But just how big of a favorite are they?

Perspicacious readers of this newsletter will know that Penn State set the NCAA Tournament scoring record three years in a row. Head coach Cael Sanderson will have nine starters and nine All-Americans back in his wrestling room.

But wise and learned wrestling fans may also recall that Oklahoma State was only 25.5 points behind Penn State in the Team Tournament rankings. Let’s take a closer look at the rankings and pencil out what a Cowboy team title might look like.

Penn State Lineup

• 125: #1 Luke Lilledahl
• 133: #4 Marcus Blaze
• 141: #12 Braeden Davis
• 149: #3 Shayne Van Ness
• 157: #2 Tyler Kasak
• 165: #1 PJ Duke
• 174: #1 Mitchell Mesenbrink
• 184: #2 Rocco Welsh
• 197: #1 Josh Barr
• 285: #5 Cole Mirasola

The bench is also one of the deepest in the history of the sport. Freestyle world champ Masa Ono is an option in the lightweights, as is Nate Desmond, who went 8-0 last season while splitting time between 125 and 141, including a win over teammate Luke Lilledahl.

In the 157-to-174 range, the Nittany Lions also have Joe Sealey, Will Henckel and Asher Cunningham as All-American-caliber options. Additionally, Cole’s twin brother Connor is moving up to heavyweight.

That kind of depth will make PSU’s lineup more resilient and lessen the damage a season-ending injury might do to its projected team point total.

Oklahoma State Lineup

• 125: #6 Troy Spratley
• 133: #1 Jax Forrest
• 141: Tagen Jamison
• 149: #1 Sergio Vega
• 157: #1 Landon Robideau
• 165: #4 LaDarion Lockett
• 174: #14 Alex Facundo
• 184: #8 Zack Ryder
• 197: #2 Cody Merrill
• 285: #1 Konner Doucet

Like PSU, Oklahoma State will have plenty of spare Cowboys in the corral. Uber-recruits Jordyn and Jayden Raney will be in the mix somewhere around 141 and are expected to be NCAA contenders right out of the gate.

Other All-American names not currently in the preseason rankings include two-time All-American Casey Swiderski, Stanford transfer Lorenzo Norman and South Dakota State transfer Bennett Berge, all between 165 and 184.

This amount of depth will allow Oklahoma State to absorb unfortunate injuries just as its rivals in Happy Valley can.

How The Cowboys Could Catch The Nittany Lions

When discussing how much either team is potentially going to score at NCAAs, it’s helpful to think of the floor and ceiling for each weight class, i.e., the lowest and highest number of points you can reasonably expect.

The preseason team point projections are useful for getting as precise a number as you can expect this far in advance of the start of varsity competition. However, the accuracy of those numbers is far from certain.

So rather than reducing each weight class to a number, let’s assume a range of possibilities at each weight for both teams.

125: Lightning Luke seems like a lock for a top-three finish, while Spratley has been less consistent, though he did reach the NCAA finals in 2025.

PSU: 14-24

OSU: 10-20

133: Jax is the reigning NCAA champ, but he’s also in one of the toughest weight classes in the NCAA, not least because of guys like Blaze. The top four at this weight could all finish in any order in March.

PSU: 13-24

OSU: 13-24

141: The most wide-open weight for both programs. Anything from a DNP to the top of the podium is on the table.

PSU: 2-20

OSU: 2-20

149: Close to the top of the podium is the expectation for both SVN and Vega.

PSU: 14-24

OSU: 14-24

157: It’s not impossible for Robideau to take a loss next season; it’s just that if he does, it’ll be the first of his collegiate career. Kasak’s (or Sealey’s) track record suggests a lower floor than that of their Orange and Black counterpart, though Kasak does have two third-place finishes in his career.

PSU: 10-24

OSU: 14-24

165: As talented as Duke is, he’s also (probably) moving up a weight class. Lockett returns at a weight where he was undefeated until the final dual of the season.

PSU: 10-24

OSU: 2-20

174: Mesenbrink is as much of a lock as you can be in September. Facundo has the potential but has yet to place at NCAAs.

PSU: 16-24

OSU: 2-14

184: A healthy Ryder or a healthy Berge can contend with the best in the country, though both could also conceivably fail to AA. Rocco’s two finals appearances in two postseasons inspire slightly more confidence in a loaded weight class.

PSU: 10-24

OSU: 2-14

197: Barr’s goals should include being an undefeated Hodge Trophy finalist. Cody Merrill is not quite in that rarefied air, but he’s got the potential.

PSU: 14-24

OSU: 5-20

285: The heavyweight division cleared out with graduations, creating space for unproven young wrestlers like the Mirasolas or Dreshaun Ross to claim the division.

PSU: 2-24

OSU: 2-24

Total

PSU: 105-236

OSU: 68-204

We’ve added a healthy amount of uncertainty to our expected outcomes by expanding our point-total ranges to encompass all reasonable finishes. But not all outcomes are equally likely. If we were to simulate one million 2027 Championships in one million alternative realities, we’d see the low and high ends of those ranges very rarely, while the majority of the results would be in the middle. For the more statistically inclined readers, a graph of those simulated results would resemble a bell curve.

The midpoints of those ranges are far more likely to occur. Those would be 170.5 for Penn State and 136 for Oklahoma State, which pretty much brings us back to the preseason rankings. More importantly, however, we’ve constructed some possibilities for Oklahoma State to pull off an upset in the team race in March.

So What Would An Oklahoma State Team Title Look Like?

Cowboy fans should not count on a total Penn State meltdown, but PSU finishing below expectations and OSU finishing above expectations just might do the trick.

For instance, if only Barr and Mesenbrink win titles, 141 and 285 don’t make the podium, and everyone else averages a fifth-place finish, then Penn State would score only around 100 points (and I realize how absurd the use of “only” has been in this sentence).

Then, if Oklahoma State’s three returning champs repeat, the Cowboys pick up another title at heavyweight, and Spratley, Lockett and Ryder finish third, the Cowboys would already be at 120 points and likely hoisting that NCAA trophy.

Bonus points, injuries and other hard-to-predict occurrences will be factors, and, of course, we’ll know a lot more about what to expect in March after watching four months of in-season competition.

But until then, it is our right—nay, our privilege—to speculate about the results of this upcoming season. How do you see it playing out? What is the most likely scenario that ends in a team title for the Cowboys?

Rewatch of the Week

There will be wrestling events between now and the start of the season, such as U23s, Senior Worlds, Who’s Number One and Super 32, just to name a few. But to satisfy your folkstyle cravings, we have curated 10 of the more fire collegiate matches from the 2025-26 season to tide you over!