The 149-pound weight class has been one of the most chaotic in the entire country this year. Shayne Van Ness has been the #1 ranked wrestler since week one, but 13 different wrestlers have been ranked in the top 5 at 149 throughout the season. Will the chaos continue in Cleveland? Check out the article below for a complete preview with predictions for what should be an incredible bracket to watch unfold!

2026 NCAA Division 1 Rankings - 149 lbs

Interactive Brackets on FloWrestling

The favorite

• Shayne Van Ness, Penn State

Van Ness enters the NCAA Tournament as the #1 seed and the lone undefeated wrestler in the field. Van Ness is currently 21-0 with a 77.3% bonus rate - 5 pins, 7 techs, and 4 majors. Van Ness also has ranked victories over Ethan Stiles, Lachlan McNeil (two), Ryder Block (two), Eligh Rivera, Chance Lamer, Carter Young, Aden Valencia, Max Petersen, and Gabe Willochell. With that kind of dominance against a tough schedule, it seems like Van Ness is a “lock” to win an NCAA title. However, Van Ness’ performance at the Big Ten Tournament may have brought that into question. Van Ness needed come-from-behind victories against both Ryder Block and Lachlan McNeil. That performance, combined with the fact that Van Ness has yet to win an NCAA title, leaves just enough doubt to keep him from being a “next topic” champion at 149 pounds this year.

Shayne Van Ness' win over Lachlan McNeil:

The Contenders

• Jaxon Joy, Cornell
• Cross Wasilewski, Penn
• Collin Gaj, Virginia Tech
• Koy Buesgens, NC State
• Caleb Tyus, SIUE
• Ethan Stiles, Ohio State
• Casey Swiderski, OK State
• David Evans, Utah Valley
• Aden Valencia, Stanford
• Lachlan McNeil, Michigan
• Carter Young, Maryland

The number of wrestlers in this category represents just how chaotic 149 pounds has been this year. There have been moments when the above ELEVEN wrestlers have looked like legitimate title contenders this year. However, they all have head-scratching blemishes on their records that make you wonder if they’ll even reach the podium in Cleveland. Check out a breakdown below of the relevant wins and losses for each wrestler in this category.

Jaxon Joy, Cornell

• Wins: Cross Wasilewski (twice), Eligh Rivera (twice), Collin Gaj, Kaleb Larkin, David Evans, Caleb Rathjen, Casey Swiderski, Ethan Stiles
• Losses: Koy Buesgens, Bo Bassett

Cross Wasilewski, Penn

• Wins: Eligh Rivera (twice), Eugene Harney, Max Petersen, Collin Gaj, Andrew Clark, Clayton Jones
• Losses: Jaxon Joy (twice), Carter Young

Collin Gaj, Virginia Tech

• Wins: Koy Buesgens (twice), Aden Valencia (twice), Kade Brown, Michael Gioffre
• Losses: Wynton Denkins, Jaxon Joy, Aden Valencia, Cross Wasilewski, Koy Buesgens

Koy Buesgens, NC State

• Wins: Kade Brown (twice), Jaxon Joy, Aden Valencia, Collin Gaj, Casey Swiderski, Caleb Rathjen
• Losses: Collin Gaj (twice), Ethan Stiles

Caleb Tyus, SIUE

• Wins: Casey Swiderski, Ethan Stiles, Dylan Layton, Ryan Michaels
• Losses: Lucas Kapusta, Bo Bassett

Ethan Stiles, Ohio State

• Wins: Joseph Zargo, Ryder Block (twice), Chance Lamer, Koy Buesgens
• Losses: Jaxon Joy, Caleb Tyus, Jacob Frost, Joseph Zargo, Shayne Van Ness

Casey Swiderski, OK State

• Wins: Lachlan McNeil, Chance Lamer, Caleb Rathjen (twice), Jacob Frost, Max Petersen
• Losses: Aden Valencia, Jaxon Joy, Ryder Block, Koy Buesgens, Caleb Tyus

David Evans, Utah Valley

• Wins: Max Petersen, Jacob Frost, Chance Lamer, Joseph Zargo, Aden Valencia
• Losses: Paniro Johnson, Jaxon Joy, Gabe Willochell, Caleb Rathjen

Aden Valencia, Stanford

• Wins: Kade Brown, Jacob Frost, Max Petersen, Collin Gaj, Casey Swiderski
• Losses: David Evans, Jacob Frost, Kaleb Larkin, Shayne Van Ness, Koy Buesgens, Collin Gaj (twice)

Lachlan McNeil, Michigan

• Wins: Carter Young (twice), Michael Gioffre (twice), Clayton Jones (twice), Ryder Block, Andrew Clark
• Losses: Casey Swiderski, Kaleb Larkin, Eligh Rivera, Collin Gaj, Shayne Van Ness (twice), Joseph Zargo

Carter Young, Maryland

• Wins: Cross Wasilewski, Joseph Zargo (twice), Andrew Clark (twice)
• Losses: Lachlan McNeil (twice), Shayne Van Ness

If you take a close look at the results, they’re all over the place! That makes this weight extremely difficult to predict, and why it has the potential to be the most chaotic bracket in Cleveland. I do think a few wrestlers from this group are trending in the right direction and worth highlighting heading into NCAAs.

The first is #11 seed, Lachlan McNeil. After a slow start with four losses in the first semester to Casey Swiderski, Kaleb Larkin, Eligh Rivera, and Collin Gaj, McNeil turned things around in the second semester, going 10-3 and placing third at the Big Ten Championships. McNeil’s most impressive match was in a loss to Shayne Van Ness in the Big Ten Semis. McNeil used two first-period takedowns to hold a 7-5 lead into the third period. He even led 9-8 with 50 seconds left in the match before Van Ness secured the match-winning takedown. That result closed the gap from a 9-1 loss to Van Ness a month prior. McNeil is peaking at the right time, and even though he’s the #11 seed, he has a great chance to make a deep run in Cleveland. 

Lachlan McNeil on his transition to Michigan:

Casey Swiderksi is another wrestler who has wrestled better in the second half of the season compared to the first. After November, Swiderski was only 2-4 and then suffered another surprising loss in December to Caleb Tyus. However, since that loss, Swiderski has won 10 straight matches, highlighted by a Big 12 title. Swiderski has a tough draw as the #8 seed with a potential match against David Evans in round two and Shayne Van Ness. However, all signs point to Swiderski finishing on the podium this year. 

Casey Swiderski's win over Caleb Rathjen in the Big 12 finals:

Jaxon Joy is the conventional pick to make the finals opposite Van Ness. Joy put together a fantastic year with a 24-1 record and a 69.2% bonus rate - 3 pins, 9 techs, and 6 majors. Even with a surprising loss to Koy Buesgens in late February, we should still expect a high finish from Joy at the NCAA Tournament. He finishes his leg attacks quickly and might be the most dominant top wrestler at the weight. Joy’s skills make him a dangerous matchup for anyone at this weight, and many expect him to wrestle Saturday night in Cleveland.

Jaxon Joy's win over Kaleb Larkin in the 2025 CKLV finals:

Collin Gaj is the final wrestler in this category worth highlighting. Gaj started the year at 157 for the Hokies and then won the starting spot after finishing 7th at the Cliff Keen Invitational and winning the Midlands Championships. While he surprisingly dropped a match to non-qualifier Wynton Denkins last month, Gaj’s performance at the ACC Tournament proved he’ll be a contender at NCAAs. To win the ACC’s Gaj took out Koy Buesgens for the second time this year (2-1 in tiebreakers) and also defeated a tough Aden Valencia (5-4). Gaj, similar to Jaxon Joy, is dominant on top, and his riding ability can shut down some of the best wrestlers in the country. 

Collin Gaj's win over Koy Buesgens:

Sleepers & Landmines

• Caleb Rathjen, Northern Iowa
• Lucas Kapusta, Lock Haven
• Eugene Harney, Morgan State

Ryder Block, Jacob Frost, Chance Lamer, and Joseph Zargo are some of the more well-known names in this bracket. Because of that, they don’t fit the “Sleepers & Landmines” category like Rathjen, Kapusta, and Harney. Rathjen leads this pack as the Big 12 runner-up with ranked wins this year over Jacob Frost, David Evans, and Joseph Zargo. Rathjen didn’t compete at all in December and is only 9-6 on the year. Because of that, he’s only the #14 seed and will have to go through Brock Herman and Cross Wasilewski just to make the quarters. Still, with as chaotic as 149 has been this year, Rathjen is capable of reaching the podium and causing some chaos of his own in Cleveland.

Lock Haven’s Lucas Kapusta only received the #17 seed, but he’s put together a very impressive season. He’s 25-4 on the year and is riding a 12-match winning streak heading into the NCAA Tournament. Kapusta was likely off most of the country’s radar until he defeated Caleb Tyus in the MAC finals to spoil Tyus’ undefeated season. Kapusta has a tough path on the front side of the bracket with Jacob Frost in his opening round match and then top-seeded Shayne Van Ness. Still, I think Kapusta could be poised to make some noise in the consolation bracket and challenge for All-American honors. 

Morgan State’s Eugene Harney is the final “Sleeper” worth highlighting at 149 pounds. Harney, Morgan State’s first-ever EIWA champion, is 27-4 this year and is currently riding a 9-match winning streak heading into the NCAA Tournament. Harney’s only losses on the season are close ones to Anderson Heap (4-1 in overtime), Cross Wasilewski (5-4), Kaden Cassidey (10-7), and he was pinned by Riley Bower (which he went on to avenge). As the #18 seed, Harney doesn’t have an easy path with Iowa’s Ryder Block first, and then a potential match against #2 Jaxon Joy. However, that’s exactly why he’s a landmine to watch out for in Cleveland!

Who’s Winning The 149 Pound NCAA Title?

Maybe I’ve overreacted to Van Ness’ close matches against Ryder Block and Lachlan McNeil, but I’ve gone back and forth on whether or not I’m picking Van Ness to win an NCAA title this year. Do I believe he’s the best wrestler in the bracket? Absolutely! However, I’m not entirely confident he’ll string 5 matches together to win the tournament. At the end of the day, I’m still riding with Van Ness to come out on top, but won’t be surprised if we see a big upset and one of the many contenders walking away with the 149-pound title. 

Full 149 Pound Predictions

1. Shayne Van Ness, Penn State

2. Lachlan McNeil, Michigan

3. Casey Swiderski, OK State

4. Collin Gaj, Virginia Tech

5. Jaxon Joy, Cornell

6. Koy Buesgens, NC State

7. Carter Young, Maryland 

8. Cross Wasilewski, Penn

Rd of 12 - Ethan Stiles, Ohio State

Rd of 12 - Caleb Rathjen, Northern Iowa

Rd of 12 - Aden Valencia, Stanford

Rd of 12 - David Evans, Utah Valley