Penn State’s Josh Barr (19-0) reached the 2025 NCAA tournament finals as a freshman and has earned bonus point wins in all of his matches this season (5 falls, 10 TF, 4 MD). If the Nittany Lions break the NCAA Championships scoring record, Barr will be a big reason why. 

Iowa State’s Rocky Elam is also undefeated, and he’d like to win a national title during his super senior season. He was a four-time All-American for Missouri (5th, 4th, 3rd, 6th) from 2021-24, took an injury redshirt, then moved to Ames. 

AJ Ferrari moved up to 285 pounds, and Jacob Cardenas graduated, leaving Joey Novak (Wyoming), Stephen Little (Little Rock), Mac Stout (Pittsburgh), and Camden McDanel (Nebraska) as All-Americans from a year ago. 

2026 NCAA Division 1 Rankings - 197 lbs

Interactive Brackets on FloWrestling

2025 All-Americans

1. Stephen Buchanan (Iowa)
2. Josh Barr (Penn State)
3. AJ Ferrari (Cal State-Bakersfield)
4. Jacob Cardenas (Michigan)
5. Joey Novak (Wyoming)
6. Stephen Little (Little Rock)
7. Mac Stout (Pittsburgh)
8. Camden McDanel (Nebraska)

2026 Top 8 Seeds

1. Josh Barr, SO (Penn State), 19-0
2. Rocky Elam, SR (Iowa State), 18-0
3. Stephen Little, JR (Little Rock), 15-2
4. Sonny Sasso, SO (Virginia Tech), 25-5
5. Joey Novak, JR (Wyoming), 17-3
6. Justin Rademacher, SO (Oregon State), 23-3
7. Cody Merrill, FR (Oklahoma State) 17-4
8. DJ Parker, JR (Oklahoma), 19-8

The Favorite

#1 Josh Barr (Penn State)

It’s hard to imagine a scenario where Barr does not win the 197-pound title. His sophomore campaign has been nothing short of jaw-dropping after a 22-4 redshirt freshman year. 

His season numbers speak for themselves:
— 100 percent bonus point rate (5 falls, 10 TF, 4 MD).
— Three techs at the Big Ten Championships, including a 19-4 win over returning All-American Camden McDanel (Nebraska) in the finals after a 21-9 major in the dual.
— A 9-1 win over returning All-American Stephen Little (Little Rock) at the Southern Scuffle.
— An 18-3 tech over Luke Geog (Ohio State) in the Big Ten semis after an 11-2 win in the dual. 

This indicates that Barr is peaking and is improving at the right time. His relentless pace might be too much for the rest of the field to handle. There’s a good chance that the Davison, Michigan, native will get his hand raised on Saturday night. 

Watch Barr's finals match against Stephen Little in the Southern Scuffle finals

The Contenders

#2 Rocky Elam (Iowa State)
#3 Stephen Little (Little Rock)
#4 Sonny Sasso (Virginia Tech)
#5 Joey Novak (Wyoming)
#6 Justin Rademacher (Oregon State)
#7 Cody Merrill (Oklahoma State)

Elam is on the opposite side of Barr, and his extended body of work gives him an edge in a grueling three-day tournament. The Kansas City, Missouri, native is seeking his first trip to the NCAA Championship finals after four podium finishes and a 2021 Junior World title. His ability to ride and secure a clutch takedown will serve Elam well as he works through the rounds. 

Speaking of riding, Cody Merrill has three tools that make him dangerous. He’s nearly impossible to take down; he can escape from (almost) anybody; he can ride like a Cowboy. Most of Merrill’s scores against top competition are close, and if he gets a first-period takedown, he’ll be tough to beat. 

Wyoming’s Joey Novak is also a Cowboy, and he should be riding high after defeating Merrill 5-2 in sudden victory at the Big 12s, then dropping a 5-4 match to Elam in the finals after a 7-3 loss at the Cliff Keen-Las Vegas Invite. His only other loss was a 12-2 setback to Virginia Tech’s Sonny Sasso early in the season. If the seeds hold, Novak and Sasso will meet in the quarters. 

Sasso took a couple of early-season losses but is trending upward when it matters most. He topped Merril in the dual, 2-1, and avenged an 11-4 loss to Pittsburgh’s Mac Stout at the ACC Championships. Sasso and Novak are on the same side as Barr, so their potential quarterfinal match is a big step toward getting on the podium. 

Rademacher entered the season fresh off a 97 kg U20 World gold medal. Freestyle success does not directly correlate with folkstyle success, but it indicates that the star from Oregon State has potential. All his losses were close (4-3 to Elam, 6-4 SV to Colton Hawks, and 4-3 Little), so it’s a takedown game for West Linn, Oregon, native. 

Little has a real shot at reaching the finals. He took a head-scratching 6-5 loss to Binghamton’s Mikey Squires on February 22, but has a win over Rademacher and is one of four wrestlers not to get teched or pinned by Barr. The Sturgis, Kentucky, native is the linchpin of a Little Rock program on the rise. He might have to beat Rademacher and Elam, but reaching the finals would be the next step in his team's success. 

Watch Elam and Novak go head-to-head in the 2025 CKLV finals.

Sleepers and Landmines

#10 Mac Stout (Pittsburgh)
#11 Camden McDanel (Nebraska)
#12 Luke Geog (Ohio State)
#13 Bennett Berge (South Dakota State)
#27 Gabe Arnold (Iowa)

This weight is full of sleepers and landmines, but here are five you shouldn’t overlook.

Stout, McDanel, and Berge are returning All-Americans capable of reaching the podium again.

Stout defeated Sasso 11-4, but lost 4-3 at the ACC Championships. His college career, including a seventh-place finish last year, makes him a tough out, and the potential second-round match with Merrill is one you should circle.

McDanel has six losses, but take that with a grain of salt. He wrestled a tough schedule, falling to Barr and Merril twice, and Stout and Evan Bates (Missouri) once. The Circleville, Ohio, native could face Rademacher in the second round, an opponent he lost to 8-5 in sudden victory two seasons ago. 

Berge took losses to Oklahoma’s DJ Parker and Merrill at the Big 12 Championships, but finished fourth at the 2024 NCAA Championships when he was at 184. He is competitive with nearly everyone in the bracket and can defeat Sasso in the Round of 16.

Arnold is Iowa’s utility man, competing at 174, 184, and 197 this season. Many of his matches are won or lost in sudden victory or late in the match. This is a tough first-round draw for Rademacher. 

Ohio State needs Geog to score points as the team fights for second place. His brutal schedule included losses to Barr, McDanel, Rademacher, Elam, Novak, and John Branson (Maryland). 

Watch highlights from Stout and McDanel in their seventh-place match at the 2025 NCAA Championships

Tiger-Style Bracket

Transferring is the name of the game in college athletics, but three wrestlers in this bracket have ties to the University of Missouri.

No. 2 Elam was a four-time All-American for the Tigers before transferring to Iowa State, #25 Evan Bates transferred from Northwestern to Missouri, and #29 Colton Hawks transferred from Missouri to Arizona State. 

Early Matches To Watch

#6 Justin Rademacher (Oregon State) vs #27 Gabe Arnold (Iowa)
Arnold was the late starter for Iowa at 197, but Rademacher could have his hands full. Whoever scores the first offensive points will probably win.

#8 DJ Parker (Oklahoma) vs #29 Colton Hawks (Arizona State)
Yes, Hawks is 7-9 this season, but he has a 6-4 win over Rademacher, and took Parker to sudden victory at the Big 12 Championships. 

#12 Luke Geog (Ohio State) vs #21 Rune Lawrence (West Virginia)
Lawrence fell to Novak 7-6 at the Big 12s, has a fall over Parker this season, and lost 2-1 to Merrill. This isn’t a gimme for Geog. 

#10 Mac Stout (Pittsburgh) vs #23 Mike Squires (Binghamton)
Squires’s 6-5 win over Little — a title contender — should not be overlooked as Stout, a returning All-American, attempts to reach the podium again. 

Predictions

1. Josh Barr (Penn State)
2. Rocky Elam (Iowa State)
3. Justin Rademacher (Oregon State)
4. Stephen Little (Little Rock)
5. Cody Merrill (Oklahoma State)
6. Joey Novak (Wyoming)
7. Sonny Sasso (Virginia Tech)
8. Mac Stout (Pittsburgh)