The portions on your Thanksgiving Day plate may be overflowing, however, the options for fans of NCAA college wrestling this week are decidedly skimpy. 

Thankfully (see what I did there?), we get to enjoy a monster dual the Sunday following Thanksgiving, and that dual is the proverbial size of the plumpest butterball in the land. It’s the Cy-Hawk Dual presented by Iowa Corn, one of the biggest duals every year, with Sunday’s edition being no exception. 

The projected lineups feature 20 ranked wrestlers, and only three of them are ranked outside the top 10. That’s literally insane. 

Projected Lineups

125: #7 Dean Peterson, Iowa vs #9 Stevo Poulin, Iowa State

133: #3 Drake Ayala, Iowa vs #6 Evan Frost, Iowa State

141: #10 Nasir Bailey, Iowa vs #7 Anthony Echemendia, Iowa State

149: #14 Ryder Black, Iowa vs #4 Paniro Johnson, Iowa State

157: #8 Jordan Williams, Iowa vs #6 Vincent Zerban, Iowa State

165: #3 Michael Caliendo, Iowa vs #26 Connor Euton, Iowa State

174: #2 Patrick Kennedy, Iowa vs #14 MJ Gaitan, Iowa State

184: #1 Angelo Ferrari, Iowa vs #10 Isaac Dean, Iowa State

197: #4 Massoma Endene, Iowa vs #2 Rocky Elam, Iowa State

285: #6 Ben Kueter, Iowa vs #1 Yonger Bastida, Iowa State

Records: #2 Iowa (5-1) vs #4 Iowa State (1-0)

The Cyclones have had a limited schedule so far in the first month of the season. They hosted the Cyclone Invitational on November 8, where they had eight champs, and then soundly defeated D2 powerhouse Nebraska-Kearney 37-3 on November 14. 

This means the Cyclones' starters are coming into this dual with at most four matches this season, only three of which can be countable, i.e. used tot help determine NCAA Championship qualification. 

The Hawkeyes, on the other hand, have already run a veritable gauntlet. Iowa started the season with a 40-0 shutout of plucky Bellarmine and then entered the abattoir that was the National Duals Invitational presented by Paycom, where the Hawkeyes went 3-1 and finished as runners-up.

The $150,000 prize money for finishing second at NDI might have helped soothe the sting of their 27-12 loss to Ohio State in the finals, but their performances in the three previous rounds was very encouraging, as they thumped Missouri 34-3, defeated tough Big Ten rival Illinois 24-13, and then thwarted their storied Big 12 archnemesis Oklahoma State 18-16. 

Watch Iowa beat Oklahoma State in Tulsa earlier this month:

Iowa followed that performance up with a 36-0 blanking of a quality Pittsburgh program, 36 to 0. 

Every Iowa starter will come into this dual already battle-tested, almost all of whom with multiple ranked bouts under their belt. 

Lineup Uncertainties

There aren’t too many roster question marks leading up to this dual, although one can never be too sure when the stakes are as high as they are for the Cy-Hawk dual.

Victor Voinovich is the only alternate listed for the Hawkeyes. Voinovich wrestled two duals at NDI and against Pitt, but if Williams is healthy, he will likely be the starter on Sunday. 

There's been some speculation that true-frosh blue-chip recruit Leo Deluca might get a start here, as he defeated #17 Mack Mauger at NDI, though there's no other indication that Deluca will be the guy on Sunday. 

A big uncertainty for the Hawkeye faithful following the National Duals Invitational was the health of heavyweight Ben Kueter, as the All-American did not take the mat all weekend in Tulsa. A collective exhale was heard throughout the greater Iowa City area when Keuter wrestled against Pitt and defeated #12 Dayton Pitzer. 

For the Cyclones, the biggest questions involved the Frost brothers of Louisiana, specifically, if Evan will be down at 133 and if Jacob will earn the starting job over Paniro Johnson. 

At a presser on Tuesday, Coach Dresser said Jacob had won two recent internal wrestle-off bouts against Johnson after Paniro had won the public wrestle-off and then said, "Jacob Frost has earned the spot." Dresser would not commit to naming a starter, however. 

Watch Jacob defeat Vance Vombaur in the 7th place bout at 2025 NCAAs:

As for Evan, he's been down at 133 for the last three years, but competed at 141 at the Cyclone Invite and the UNK dual earlier this month. It's assumed the 2024 All-American will be back down at 133 for one of the most important dates on the Cyclone calendar this Sunday, but if for any reason Frost can't go, expect Garrett Grice to toe the line at 133 (though bet on Frost imo). 

Christian Castillo is also listed as an 'or' at 125 and Aiden Riggins as an 'or' at 165, but there's no other reason to think Poulin and Euton won't get the nod when those weights are wrestled. 

Series History in the Tom Brands Era

December 3, 2006: Iowa 24, Iowa State 6

December 9, 2007: Iowa 20, Iowa State 13

December 6, 2008: Iowa 20, Iowa State 15

December 6, 2009: Iowa 18, Iowa State 16

January 10, 2010: Iowa 19, Iowa State 12

December 3, 2010: Iowa 22, Iowa State 13

December 4, 2011: Iowa 27, Iowa State 9

December 1, 2012: Iowa 32, Iowa State 3

December 1, 2013: Iowa 23, Iowa State 9

November 29, 2014: Iowa 28, Iowa State 8

November 29, 2015: Iowa 33, Iowa State 6

December 10, 2016: Iowa 26, Iowa State 9

February 18, 2018: Iowa 35, Iowa State 6

December 1, 2018: Iowa 19, Iowa State 18

November 24, 2019: Iowa 29, Iowa State 6

December 5, 2021: Iowa 23, Iowa State 11

December 4, 2022: Iowa 18, Iowa State 15

November 26, 2023: Iowa 18, Iowa State 14

November 23, 2024: Iowa 21, Iowa State 15

I copied this from Kyle Klingman's preview from last year. Crazy stat. 

All-time Series: 70-16-2 in favor of Iowa. Their first meeting was on March 4, 1916.

Match by Match Prediction

125: Poulin (ISU) over Peterson (UI) by decision

133: Ayala (UI) over Frost (ISU) by decision

141: Echemendia (ISU) over Bailey (UI) by decision

149: Frost (ISU) over Block (UI) by decision

157: Zerban (ISU) over Williams (UI) by decision 

165: Caliendo (UI) over Euton (ISU) by major

174: Kennedy (UI) over Gaitan (ISU) by major

184: Ferrari (UI) over Dean (ISU) by decision

197: Elam (ISU) over Endene (UI) by decision

285: Bastida (ISU) over Kueter (UI) by decision

Final score: Iowa 16, Iowa State 15

"But wait," you might say, "Spey, your match predictions have Iowa State winning 18-14. How is it that your final prediction says Iowa 16-15?" And so I'll tell you: it is because I believe several of my ISU picks are close enough to tossups that at least one of the ISU picks will go in Iowa's favor, and I don't see any of the Iowa picks being that close to tossups. Additionally, I think it's about 50/50 that either Caliendo or Kennedy will major, so I shaved a point off Iowa's total. So 18 - 3 = 15 and 14 +3 -1 = 16.

To further illustrate my point, my picks in order of confidence are as follows:

1. Kennedy
2. Caliendo
3. Ferrari
4. Bastida
5. Ayala
6. Echemendia
7. J Frost
8. Elam
9. Poulin
10. Zerban

There is a sizable drop off in confidence after Ayala, and another drop after Echemendia. 

Is my confidence misplaced? Am I about to be proven dead wrong? Perhaps. But if that is to be the case, you can bet I will be there to collect my due for inspiring any wrestler to prove me wrong. 

You can also imagine how the match will unfold, assuming things start at 125. That first bout will be pivotal, as it looks like a toss-up on paper. Ayala and Echemendia are strong favorites, so if either team can steal a win here they'd sgtart feeling good about their chances. 

Then you have 149 and 157, two more bouts that lean closer to toss-ups than heavy favorites, and whose outcomes may determine the dual. 

The next three bouts lean heavily toward Iowa, and then you have Endene with his toughest D1 test yet against a four-time NCAA All-American in Elam, who is coming back from a medical redshirt. 

Our hope as fans is that the outcome is not decided yet by heavyweight, at which point we can confidently declare that no matter who emerges victorious, the real winners are, naturally, the fans. 

And if you prefer your previews in video podcast format, check out last Wednesday's FRL.

Why Work Harder? Ask ChatGPT

ChatGPT and other so-called Large Language Models like to scour the internet for content and then regurgitate it back to knowledge-seeking web surfers with scarcely any acknowledgement to the original content creators and zero remuneration. So why not turn the tables and use the robot hive-mind to create some content for which I do receive compensation? 

I see nothing ethically nor morally wrong with this arrangement, and I won’t apologize for it. 

So anyway, I asked ChatGPT: Who is going to win the NCAA college wrestling dual meet between Iowa and Iowa State this Sunday, November 29, 2025? And here’s what the Artificial Intelligence fawcett spouted back to me.

Given the data, I lean Iowa Hawkeyes to win the dual. The most likely scenario: Iowa wins by a comfortable margin (perhaps something like 18-10 or 20-9). Iowa State could make it competitive, but I don’t see them pulling off an upset unless Iowa under-performs or Iowa State racks up bonus points.

Not terribly insightful, to be quite honest. Perhaps asking ChatGPT to break down the dual by weight class will produce something less disappointingly anodyne. 

So I asked: Please do a match-by-match breakdown of the Iowa vs Iowa State dual meet.

To which the computer screen heaved back:

125: Poulin is a high‐quality transfer and ISU hopes he bolsters this weight. Peterson is solid for Iowa, but ISU may have the edge here. Slight lean ISU.

133: Ayala is highly ranked for Iowa. ISU’s Frost is coming back down from 141 and has upside. Iowa likely favoured due to ranking/depth.

141: Echemendía is an experienced ISU wrestler with All‐American pedigree. Iowa’s Bailey is good too. This is a key swing match. Slight lean ISU based on experience.

149: Johnson has wrestled well for ISU; Voinovich less proven at this level. I’ll give ISU the edge, though Iowa could pull it if Voinovich steps up.

157: Zerban is a transfer with upside, but Williams likely has the advantage for Iowa. Lean Iowa here.

165: Caliendo is among the top for Iowa. Riggins is good, but maybe a step behind. This should be Iowa’s point.

174: Kennedy is strong for Iowa; Gaitan likely underdog. Lean Iowa.

184: Dean is a strong transfer for ISU. But Ferrari is well-established for Iowa. Lean Iowa.

197: Elam is a high‐level wrestler for ISU, which gives ISU a chance here. Slight lean ISU.

285: Bastida for ISU is among the best in the country at heavyweight. This is likely an ISU win unless Iowa pulls surprise.

Summary & Team Outcome Thoughts

Iowa appears to have the depth and most consistent favorites in the mid-weights (165, 174, 184) which could be pivotal.

Iowa State has potential sweep matches at 125, 141, 197, and 285 if everything goes right — those could swing the dual.

If Iowa picks up wins in the mid‐weights and limits ISU bonus scores, Iowa likely wins the dual. If ISU wins their key matches and gets bonus points (pins/tech falls) in the upper weights, they have a shot at the upset.

My projection: Iowa wins the dual, but not by a huge margin — perhaps a 5-to-10 point margin, assuming no major upset. If ISU hits their ceiling, it could be very close.

Okay that’s at least a little better, although some of the analysis still leaves something to be desired. Thank you for your input my robot friend! 

How to Watch

It’s on ESPN, the main cable channel, aka the Mothership, which I believed was only available with a cable subscription, but now might be available with just an ESPN Unlimited subscription? I’m not entirely sure, so don’t count on me for the particulars, that’s some Disney employee’s job. Or I ask AI, I dunno.

But you don't have to ask AI to know that the great Shawn Kenney, Rock Harrison and Shane Sparks will be on the call for ESPN, which is excellent news for all wrestling fans. 

Also you can go to Ames, Iowa and buy a ticket to watch in the Hilton Coliseum, which I highly recommend if at all possible. The dual starts at 12:00pm central, so be there to see if the Cyclones can break a 20-year losing streak why don’t you!? And Happy Thanksgiving!