Kyle Dake and Zahid Valencia will wrestle at Final X on June 14 in a best-of-three series to determine the world team member at 86 kg. This matchup will be considered the “main event” of Final X and will be an incredible showdown between two of the world's best wrestlers. Check out the article below for a full breakdown of the matchup along with our predictions for how the matches will unfold. 

Key Credentials

Kyle Dake

• 4-time World Champion (2021 & 2022 at 74 kg, 2018 & 2019 at 79 kg)
• World Silver (2023 at 74 kg)
• 2-time Olympic Bronze (2020 & 2024 at 74 kg)
• 4-time NCAA Champion (2010-2013 at 141lbs, 149lbs, 157lbs, and 165lbs)

Zahid Valencia

• 2023 World Bronze (92 kg)
• 2017 U20 World Silver (84 kg)
• 2-time NCAA Champion (2018 and 2019 at 174 lbs)

Dake vs Valencia Match History

• 2025 US Open - Zahid Valencia dec. Kyle Dake, 8-4
• 2018 Final X Match 2 - Kyle Dake dec. Zahid Valencia, 4-3
• 2018 Final X Match 1 - Kyle Dake dec. Zahid Valencia, 4-0

Valencia's win over Dake at the 2025 US Open:

Breaking Down The Matchup

Valencia vs Dake is a showcase of high-powered offense (Valencia) vs world-class defense and counter-scoring (Dake). As you can see from the above matchups, Dake and Valencia have wrestled three times in their freestyle careers, with Dake leading the series 2-1. Though there were 7 years in between their matches, it’s still worth breaking down their past meetings to get a better idea of the keys to victory for each wrestler at Final X. 

Valencia is known for his fast starts and has held first-period leads over Kyle Dake in two of the three matches they’ve wrestled. Valencia has scored 7 points in the first period and only 4 points in the second period in his matches against Dake. In their US Open final in April, Valencia got out to his typical fast start, scoring a takedown and gut to build a 5-1 lead after the first period. While it’s a simple key to victory, Valencia will likely need to build a similar lead in his matches against Dake at Final X if he wants to make the world team. Valencia also imposed his will early in their US Open match, bringing a hard hand fight to Dake. I expect Valencia to impose a similar strategy at Final X and use his size advantage to his favor early in the match. 

Kyle Dake has scored 4 points in each of the three matches he’s wrestled against Valencia. On top of that, a few other trends stand out for Kyle Dake in this matchup. The first is that Dake has scored a majority of his points on counters and step-outs. In fact, Dake hasn’t scored a takedown against Zahid since their first match at 2018 Final X. Dake also scored a majority of his points in the second period in these matchups - 9 points in the second compared to 3 points in the first. Again, it’s simple, but Dake needs to avoid getting caught in a shoot-out match against Valencia. A secondary key to victory for Dake will be getting on top in the middle of the mat. Dake has a world-class gut-wrench, and if he can get on top, he'll have a great chance at scoring in par terre.

Take a look at the charts below for the scoring breakdowns between Valencia and Dake in their 3 matches:

How Valencia has scored against Dake:

How Dake has scored against Valencia:

Scoring breakdown by periods for Valencia:

Scoring breakdown by periods for Dake:

Who Wins At Final X?

The Dake vs Valencia series is largely considered the most anticipated matchup of Final X, and the winner will head to Worlds as a title contender. Regardless of who comes out on top, the matches have the potential to be all-time greats and should be incredibly competitive. 

I see these matches going one of two ways. First, Valencia’s offense proves to be too much for Dake, and he wins similarly to the US Open finals match. Valencia’s offense is world-class, and he has a variety of ways he can put up points against Dake. If Valencia stays aggressive and on his offense early, Dake won’t be able to keep up.

Despite the US Open result, Dake’s path to victory is clear, and he’s more than capable of shutting down Zahid’s offense and winning two close matches. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Dake comes out at Final X and executes a game plan to limit Valencia’s early scoring. If Dake can do that, he has clearly shown he has the advantage in the second period against Valencia. 

So the question remains, who wins at Final X? I’ve honestly gone back and forth on picking the winner for this match. However, I think a three-match series favors Kyle Dake in this matchup. If it were just one match, Valencia would be my pick, but I think Dake and the NLWC coaches will devise a game plan leading to Dake winning this series in three matches.