#1 Penn State will welcome #2 Iowa to the Bryce Jordan Center for what should be an incredible dual on Friday, January 31. The dual will start at 7:00 pm (ET) and will be broadcast live on the Big Ten Network. This dual has the potential to feature four #1 ranked wrestlers, 20 total ranked competitors, 12 All-Americans, and 3 NCAA Champions. Before the dual goes down, check out the below article for a complete preview with predictions of every match.

More Penn State vs Iowa Preview Content

Live Updates | Parco vs Van Ness | Arnold vs Starocci | Buchanan vs Barr | Teemer vs Kasak | Iowa Insider | PSU Insider

#1 Penn State vs #2 Iowa Probable Lineups:

125: #9 Luke Lilledahl, Penn State vs #23 Joey Cruz, Iowa

133: #7 Braeden Davis, Penn State vs #2 Drake Ayala, Iowa 

141: #3 Beau Bartlett, Penn State vs #18 Ryder Block/Jace Rhodes, Iowa

149: #3 Shayne Van Ness, Penn State vs #4 Kyle Parco, Iowa

157: #3 Tyler Kasak, Penn State vs #1 Jacori Teemer, Iowa

165: #1 Mitchell Mesenbrink, Penn State vs #2 Michael Caliendo, Iowa

174: #2 Levi Haines, Penn State vs #6 Patrick Kennedy, Iowa

184: #1 Carter Starocci, Penn State vs #5 Gabe Arnold/Angelo Ferrari, Iowa

197: #4 Josh Barr, Penn State vs #1 Stephen Buchanan, Iowa

285: #2 Greg Kerkvliet, Penn State vs #10 Ben Kueter, Iowa

125: #9 Luke Lilledahl, Penn State vs #23 Joey Cruz, Iowa

Despite coming off a close loss to Dean Peterson, Luke Lilledahl should be considered the favorite heading into the match against Joey Cruz. Lilledahl has ranked wins on the year over #6 Caleb Smith, #17 Sheldon Seymour, and #29 Charlie Farmer. Beyond that, Lilledahl has only surrendered 2 takedowns in his 12 total matches wrestled this year. Lilledahl hasn’t been “lighting up the scoreboard” but he still has elite offense from neutral and I expect him to win the takedown battle against Cruz.

It is worth noting that Joey Cruz has been wrestling significantly better over the past three weeks and is coming off a 6-5 win over Ohio State’s #16 Brendan McCrone. In that match, Cruz got out to a quick 6-1 lead after recording two takedowns in the first period. That performance should give Hawkeye fans some hope for Cruz against Lilledahl, but I still think Cruz will have a difficult time getting to Lilledahl’s legs in their match on Friday. 

Prediction: Lilledahl by decision

Team Score Prediction: Penn State 3, Iowa 0

Watch Luke Lilledahl's win over Sheldon Seymour:

133: #7 Braeden Davis, Penn State vs #2 Drake Ayala, Iowa 

The match at 133 pounds has the potential to be the match of the night and is a rematch from last year when these two met in the dual at 125 pounds. In that match, Ayala came out on top winning 4-2 off a slide-by takedown just 30 seconds into the first period. I expect a similar match this time around and would be surprised if their match on Friday is decided by more than 1 takedown. Based on history, I’m giving Ayala the slight edge but this match is about as close to a toss-up as possible.

Prediction: Ayala by decision

Team Score Prediction: Penn State 3, Iowa 3

Hear Drake Ayala talk about his decision to move up to 133 pounds:

141: #3 Beau Bartlett, Penn State vs #18 Ryder Block/Jace Rhodes, Iowa

Beau Bartlett has established himself as a title contender at 141 pounds over the past three years and will be a big favorite against Ryder Block or Jace Rhodes. Bartlett should win this match handily and the only real question is whether or not Bartlett’s able to secure bonus points. Bartlett has won by bonus in half of his matches this year but he also has the tendency to wrestle some matches closer than he should. 

Prediction: Bartlett by major decision

Team Score Prediction: Penn State 7, Iowa 3

149: #3 Shayne Van Ness, Penn State vs #4 Kyle Parco, Iowa

Shayne Van Ness and Kyle Parco have wrestled twice in their college career with Van Ness winning both matches. They first met in the third-place match at the 2023 NCAA Tournament where Van Ness came out on top, 7-2. Their second meeting was in the 2023 NWCA All-Star Classic where Van Ness won 5-1. Both of those meetings show that Van Ness holds the slight advantage on their feet - he leads the takedown battle 3-0. If their match on Friday plays out similar to their previous meeting, we should expect to see Van Ness come away with another close victory. 

While their head-to-head results are the most important information to consider in this match, it’s also notable to mention their relevant results this season. Van Ness is currently 11-1 on the year with his only loss coming against #2 Ridge Lovett and significant wins over #22 Jordan Williams, #26 Andrew Clark, and #20 Gabe Willochell. Parco is 13-0 on the year with notable victories over #9 Dylan D’Emilio, #15 Kannon Webster, #5 Lachlan McNeil, #29 Gabe Willochell, Anthony Echemendia, and #8 Jaden Abas. 

As you can see, Parco has wrestled a significantly tougher schedule this year and remains undefeated. Beyond that, Parco has looked outstanding on top and that could factor in to this upcoming showdown. In Lovett’s win over Van Ness, he secured near fall late in the match to seal the victory and earn a major decision. Parco’s best path to victory might be focusing on working for a turn on top and using that potential advantage to propel him to a win.

Prediction: Van Ness by decision

Team Score Prediction: Penn State 10, Iowa 3

Watch Van Ness' win over Kyle Parco from the 2023 NWCA All-Star Classic:

157: #3 Tyler Kasak, Penn State vs #1 Jacori Teemer, Iowa

This is the first of four weights featuring a #1 ranked wrestler. Jacori Teemer is a returning NCAA runner-up at 157 pounds and is already a 3-time All-American with a 6th place finish in 2022 and a 4th place finish in 2021. Despite that top ranking, Teemer has only wrestled 3 full matches this year after being sidelined for two months with a hamstring injury in late November. Teemer looked solid in his 10-5 victory against Sammy Sasso last weekend but Tyler Kasak is absolutely a step up in competition for Teemer. 

Kasak, who placed third last year at 149 pounds, is currently 12-0 on the year with significant wins over #4 Antrell Taylor, #22 Matt Bianchi, #20 Jared Hill, #30 Logan Rozynsky, and teammate Alex Facundo. Kasak looks every bit of a national title contender and the match against Teemer is a huge opportunity for Kasak to prove that.

So the question is, who wins on Friday night? This matchup reminds me a lot of last year’s NCAA finals bout where Levi Haines defeated Teemer. I think Kasak’s baseline defense is strong enough to defend against Teemer’s offense. Beyond that, I think we could see Kasak’s pressure forcing a stall call or two against Teemer and I think Kasak could ride long enough to earn a riding time point. Because of that, I’m picking Kasak to win a close decision over Teemer. 

Prediction: Kasak by decision

Team Score Prediction: Penn State 13, Iowa 3

165: #1 Mitchell Mesenbrink, Penn State vs #2 Michael Caliendo, Iowa

Mitchell Mesenbrink defeated Michael Caliendo three times last season - 12-6 (in the dual), 23-7 (at Big 10s), and 17-9 (at NCAAs). Because of those past results, it’s hard to imagine a meeting between these two that doesn’t end with Mesenbrink getting his hand raised. Mesenbrink is currently 13-0 on the year with an outstanding 100% bonus rate (11 tech falls and 2 forfeits). Caliendo is also 13-0 on the year and looks to be wrestling better than ever. Because of that, I don’t think Mesenbrink will get the tech fall, but I am predicting Mesenbrink to come away with a major decision.

Prediction: Mesenbrink by major decision

Team Score Prediction: Penn State 17, Iowa 3

Watch Mesenbrink's win over Caliendo in the 2024 NCAA Semis:

174: #2 Levi Haines, Penn State vs #6 Patrick Kennedy, Iowa

Levi Haines is currently 11-1 with his only loss coming in overtime to 2-time NCAA champ Keegan O’Toole. Patrick Kennedy is 8-1 with his only loss coming against All-American Carson Kharchla. After that loss, it appears Kennedy is a tier behind the best guys at 174 but this match against Haines is a huge opportunity for Kennedy to secure a statement win. I think Haines’ power, defense, and riding ability will lead to a 1 or 2 takedown victory for the Nittany Lion. Despite Haines being the favorite, expect Kennedy to bring the fight in what should be a phenomenal match on Friday.

Prediction: Haines by decision

Team Score Prediction: Penn State 20, Iowa 3

184: #1 Carter Starocci, Penn State vs #5 Gabe Arnold/Angelo Ferrari, Iowa

Will Gabe Arnold or Angelo Ferrari take the mat against 4-time NCAA Champion Carter Starocci? Regardless of which Hawkeye wrestler we see, there’s incredible hype for this match at 184 pounds. Gabe Arnold has been calling out Carter Starocci since he was a senior in high school and as recent as last weekend Arnold said, “I promise, your head is mine...book it” when referring to the upcoming match against Starocci. 

Hear Gabe Arnold's callout at 5:00 in the video below:

Earlier this week, Starocci was asked about Gabe Arnold's trash talk and Starocci replied, "He's their starter? I thought the other guy (Ferrari) was their starter...I think I'll gameplan for the other guy. I think the other guy is a better wrestler." There's no love lost between Starocci and Arnold and because of that, the match at 184 pounds is the most anticipated of the dual.

Hear Starocci's response at the beginning of the video below:

Angelo Ferrari hasn’t been as bold about a potential match against Starocci but AJ Ferrari (Angelo’s older brother), repeatedly called out Starocci earlier this year inviting Starocci up to 197 pounds for a super match. Starocci responded with a callout of his own to wrestle AJ at 190. To that post, Angelo replied, "why won't you go up to 197 like you said, scared lmao." Starocci and AJ never ended up wrestling but the callouts still help build anticipation for a potential meeting between Angelo and Starocci.

So the question is, can Arnold or Ferrari pull off the upset against Starocci? Starocci has been dominant this year with a 12-0 record and a 100% bonus rate. He also started the year off with an overtime victory in an exhibition All-Star match against returning NCAA champion Parker Keckeisen. Starocci has yet to surrender a takedown this season and will be a considerable favorite against either Arnold or Ferrari. Arnold has slightly better defense while Ferrari is more dynamic offensive. Either way, I expect Starocci to win by at least 2 takedowns on Friday night.

Prediction: Starocci by decision

Team Score Prediction: Penn State 23, Iowa 3

197: #4 Josh Barr, Penn State vs #1 Stephen Buchanan, Iowa

Josh Barr has been one of the best “surprises” for Penn State this season and is currently 12-0 on the year with 11 bonus point wins (5 pins, 3 techs, and 3 majors). Barr’s only non-bonus win of the year came in an overtime win over returning All-American #5 Stephen Little. Barr wrestles an insane pace that no opponent has been able to keep up with this season. Beyond that, Barr also holds victories over All-Americans #6 Michael Beard (11-3) and #17 John Poznanski (22-6). 

Barr is obviously an All-American threat but is he capable of winning a national title this year? Buchanan is the litmus test to answer that question. Buchanan is a three-time All-American with third-place finishes in 2024 and 2022 and an 8th place finish in 2021. Buchanan is 13-0 on the year with 11 bonus point wins (2 pins,6 techs, and 3 majors). 

So how does this match play out on Friday night? As mentioned above, Barr has used his conditioning to wear down every opponent he’s wrestled this year - is he capable of breaking Buchanan with that pace? There’s certainly a possibility of that happening but I think Buchanan can match Barr’s handfight better than anyone he’s faced up to this point. Buchanan also has a more complete offense than anyone Barr’s wrestled and I think that will be the difference in this match. I’m predicting Buchanan gets his offense going early and that Barr’s pace won’t be a factor in this match.

Prediction: Buchanan by decision

Team Score Prediction: Penn State 23, Iowa 6

Watch Josh Barr's major decision victory over All-American Michael Beard from earlier this season:

Watch Stephen Buchanan's win over All-American Trey Munoz:

285: #2 Greg Kerkvliet, Penn State vs #10 Ben Kueter, Iowa

Kerkvliet and Kueter wrestled last year in Penn State’s dual win over Iowa in a match that Kerkvliet won by major decision - 9-1. Kerkvliet will be a big-time favorite coming into this matchup and is capable of earning another bonus point win on Friday night. However, Kueter is coming off the biggest win of his career - a 5-4 decision victory over All-American Nick Feldman. I expect this match to be closer than their meeting last season but still have a hard time seeing Kueter come away with a victory. Kueter has struggled to finish his leg attacks this year and will have trouble with Kerkvliet's size advantage. We saw this in Kueter's recent loss to Illinois' Luke Luffman and I think Kerkvliet will win by a takedown or two on Friday night. 

Prediction: Kerkvliet by decision

Team Score Prediction: Penn State 26, Iowa 6

Does Iowa Have A Path To Victory?

I predicted Penn State to win 8 of 10 matches but this dual could be considerably closer than that. Iowa has winnable matches at both 149 and 157 where I predicted them to lose. If they win those matches, the dual score dwindles down to 20-12 in favor of Penn State. That means Iowa will need to pull off at least one upset at either 125, 141, 165, 174, 184, or 285. Beyond that, the Hawkeyes need to avoid giving up bonus points in any of the matches they lose. It's a narrow road to a victory for Iowa but crazier things have happened in duals and all 10 matches should be incredible on Friday night in State College!