NCAA

2023-4 NCAA D1 Wrestling Regular Season Retrospective

2023-4 NCAA D1 Wrestling Regular Season Retrospective

The race for the top 3 NCAA team trophies has been a wild one. Here's how it all unfolded so far!

Mar 5, 2024 by Andrew Spey
2023-4 NCAA D1 Wrestling Regular Season Retrospective

The postseason is just a few days away, but there's still time to squeeze in a regular season retrospective as the march of time inexorably hurtles us into the weekend!

After 17 weeks of the regular season, Penn State stands alone as #1 in the latest team tournament rankings, however, numbers 2 through 12 are all relatively close in projected team points. 

The Nittany Lions project to score 136.5 points (not accounting for bonus points), while Iowa has pulled into second place with 65.5 projected points. 3rd place and 12th place are separated by a mere 16 points (57.5 to 41.5). 

Taking those top 12 teams and graphing their placement in the team rankings throughout the season produces this chart

I animated the graph in the hopes of making it easier to read. I am unskilled in the ways of animation so I'm not sure if I can call that video a total success but it also took me forever to make so it's also the best we're getting for the time being. 

Another way to look at those numbers can be seen in the conditionally formated table below. 

I left out Penn State, since they stayed as the number one ranked team all year and had considerably more projected points than any other school. After that, though, we can see how things shifted as teams vie for the 2nd and 3rd place NCAA trophies. 

The columns show each week of the regular season while the numbers represent the projected team points. The darker the shade of green, the closer the team is to being projected to score the second most points (82 was the max). THe deeper the shade of red, the fewer points the teams were projected to score. 

Another thing I did (it was a productive weekend!) was graph the projected team points of each of the top 12 teams, week by week, with the points broken out by weight class. It'll make more sense when you look at the graphs, which all can be found below. 

1) Penn State

Not a lot of analysis is needed for Penn State. They started the season as the top-ranked favorite to repeat as national champions and they ended the regular season as the top-ranked favorite to repeat as national champs. 

The graph does show where Shayne Van Ness at 149 was taken out of the rankings after week 5 due to injury and how Tyler Kasak, despite being an All-American contender ranked #12 as a true freshman, will likely struggle to produce as many points at NCAAs as Van Ness did last season. 

You can also see when Braedan Davis started coming on strong in week 12 at 125, and how Mitchell Mesenbrink started establishing himself in the rankings at 165 in the later half of the season. 

2) Iowa

There's a lot going on with the Iowa chart. Tony Cassioppi, Abe Assad and Nelson Brands all came out of the rankings after week 1 at 285, 184 & 174 respectively. Pat Kennedy did a good job moving up the rankings at 174 but the Hawkeyes have had a tougher time getting production out of their 184 and 285-pound replacements. 

Iowa did receive a boost from Drake Ayala, who was ranked number one at 125 during week 11 (beating Caleb Smith and Pat McKee will help accomplish that), before settling in at #2 where is currently is. Indeed, the vicissitudes of 125 buffeted many schools up and down the top 10 throughout the season.

3) NC State

Jakob Camacho was ranked #1 after the seventh week of the season but then lost three bouts at the Collegiate Duals and dropped to #12 in week 8, which had quite a large effect on the team rankings. 

Ed Scott has also had an up-and-down season at 157, which can be seen as the green band contracted, expanded, and then contracted again all by week 11. Conversely, Kai Orine,  Kevin Jack and Jackson Arrington have been consistent bright spots at 133, 141 and 149, as has the Wolfpack standard-bearer Trent Hidlay at 197. 

4) Oklahoma State

The Cowboys have had a mostly upward trajectory this season. Much of their projected improvement came at 125 as Troy Spratley climbed up the rankings, however, this was offset by the modest regression at 165 and Izzak Olejnik, who lost to Iowa's Michael Caliendo in week 17 to drop from #3 to #8.

Conversely, Daton Fix at 133 and Dustin Plott at 184 have been steady performers for Oklahoma State all year long. 

5) Iowa State

The two weights that provided the Cyclones with the biggest boosts as the season went on were 285, where Yonger Bastida went from #6 to #3 after winning the Cliff Keen Las Vegas Invitational, and at 141, where Anthony Echemendia went from #30 to #10 after a solid CKLV, and then from #9 to #7 after a win over UNI's Cael Happel in week 14. The Cuban connection is paying dividends for Iowa State!

The Cyclones also got improved results from Casey Swiderski at 149, partially offset by Will Feldkamp's slight decline at 184.

6) Michigan

It's been a rather tumultuous season for the Wolverines. Shane Griffith was down after week 5 but back up after week 9. Austin Gomez was a boon to the lineup when he returned to action in week 9. 

Lucas Davison has been a stalwart at 285 and Dylan Ragusin has come on strong at 133 as well. 

7) Nebraska

Nebraska sunk a bit in the standings early in the season when Silas Allred lost to Luke Stout at 197 at the Navy Classic in week 2. That was later offset by Lenny Pinto at 184, who went from #12 to #5 after a successful CKLV. 

The Huskers were further bolstered by Caleb Smith's flare-up in the middle of the season at 125, although he has since reverted back to #10, which is where he was near the start of the season. Peyton Robb also fell in the 157 lb rankings after four straight losses in January. 

8) Virginia Tech

Part of the chaos of 125 was caused by the Hokies, who saw Cooper Flynn, who took over for Eddie Ventresca in week 7, start at #13, then rise, fall, and raise again to reach #7 at the end of the regular season.

Sam Latona has seen his 133lb ranking shrink as the season progresses, as did Bryce Andonian at 157, who has missed most of the second half of the season due to injury. Mekhi Lewis and Caleb Henson, however, have been holding strong all season long at 174 and 149 respectively. 

9) Lehigh

Lehigh's rapid ascension in the team rankings was driven primarily by two wrestlers, Ryan Crookham and Luke Stanich, with additional assistance from two more, Michael Beard and Nathan Taylor.  

Crookham attained the #1 ranking after the second week of the season after replacing his teammate Connor McGonagle in the lineup. The redshirt freshmen defeated Vito Arujau at the Journeymen Collegiate classic to earn the top spot in the 133lb rankings. 

Stanich, at 125, earned the top spot after winning Midlands and then defeating Brett Ungar. Stanich was also helped by the chaos of 125 that saw many a contender lose throughout the season. Stanich was not immune from the 125lb curse, however, and is now ranked #3 after a couple of late-season losses. 

Michael Beard and Nathan Taylor have just four losses combined and have steadily risen in the rankings. Those four wrestlers alone could provide the Mountain Hawks with enough points for a top-10 finish in Kansas City. 

10) Cornell

Lehigh's chief EIWA rival (at least for one more year) could also earn themselves a top-10 finish thanks to a quarter of wrestlers. Despite the loss to Crookham, Vito Arujau is holding strong at #2 at 133, and could avenge that loss at the EIWA Championships. 

At 165 Julian Ramirez rose from #7 to #4 after a strong CKLV. Additionally, True Freshman Meyer Shapiro has clawed his way into the top 8 in the rankings, and Jacob Cardenas has also managed to hold on to a top 8 ranking at 197. 

Cornell could also see big points at 125 with Brett Ungar,  and at 184 with Chris Foca at 184 (who moved up from 174 after week 2). Both have All-American potential despite their rankings.

11) Missouri

The Tigers were the #2 ranked team in the nation as late as week 12 in the season (late January), but have since dropped down to #11, mostly due to Rocky Elam at 197, Brock Mauller at 157, and Noah Surtin at 125 all sliding down the individual weight class rankings in February. 

Keegan O'Toole remains a rock as the #1 ranked defending champ at 165 and Zach Elam has been either #6 or #5 all season long at 285. Missouri could also qualify all 10 for NCAAs, giving them tremendous upside potential in March. 

12) Arizona State

The Sun Devils are getting almost all of their currently projected points from three wrestlers, Kyle Parco at 149, Jacori Teemer at 157, and Cohlton Schultz at 285, all of whom have held on to the high rankings with which they started the year. 

One big caveat is that Richard Figueroa, who recently beat Luke Stanich, has the potential to win 125 (along with several other wrestlers), so 12th should not be considered the limit for how high Arizona State could climb on the NCAA Tournament leaderboard. 

Overall Regular Season Year In Review

The story this year has been all about the Nittany Lions and how dominant they've looked. Penn State has five #1 ranked wrestlers. Four of them were #1 in the preseason and the fifth, Beau Bartlett, started the year at #2. 

The Nittany Lions have four other top 8 ranked wrestlers with their lowest ranked wrestler checking in at #12. The question is not whether they will win another NCAA title, but by how large a margin. 

The rest of the programs were all over the map (here's that chart again if you need a refresher). 

Iowa started as #2 but then lost three starters and dropped in the rankings. Cornell and then Missouri each spent a week as the #2 team before NC State and then Nebraska were in the runner-up. Both had excellent performances at the CKLV. 

Later, Oklahoma State was #2 for a couple of weeks before Iowa once again climbed back into second place where they remain before the start of the Conference Tournaments. 

The rest of the placements defied any simple explanation, except perhaps for Lehigh, who rocketed up from being a non factor in the preseason to as high as #6 late in the season. 

No one is getting off the rollercoaster yet, either! There will undoubtedly be a reshuffling after conference weekend, and then of course the NCAAs will determine the final results. And we get to watch it all happen. Not a bad deal!