IMar Quest, Part III: 165-Pound NCAA Preview

IMar Quest, Part III: 165-Pound NCAA Preview

Now that we have our sweet, sweet brackets for the NCAA Wrestling Championships in St. Louis on March 16. We now pass the midway point of our previews as we dig into 165.

Mar 13, 2017 by Andrew Spey
IMar Quest, Part III: 165-Pound NCAA Preview
NCAA Wrestling Archived Match Videos

Now that we have our sweet, sweet brackets for the NCAA Wrestling Championships, it's time to take a closer look at the weight classes. We're doing a deep dive into each division, rolling out previews one at a time, so you can pour over and digest everything before the first whistle in St. Louis on March 16.

We now pass the midway point of our previews as we dig into 165.

Last year's NCAA champion and Hodge Trophy winner, Oklahoma State's Alex Dieringer, graduated and is currently out on the international senior circuit trying to win freestyle medals.

Wisconsin's Issac Jordan returns, the other finalist from 2016, but his cousin and last year's third-placer, Bo Jordan of Ohio State, is wrestling up at 174.

Also bumping up a weight class from last year is Illinois junior Isaiah Martinez, who won last year's NCAA championship at 157 pounds. He's on a quest for a third NCAA title, and he will enter the tournament as the favorite to do so, sporting an undefeated record and the No. 1 seed.

We'll check out some of the contenders who are looking to knock off the heavily favored Martinez, followed by dark horses and a full set of predictions and analysis (2017 NCAA tournament seeds in parentheses).

Title Contenders

(1) Isaiah Martinez, Illinois
(2) Logan Massa, Michigan
(3) Vincenzo Joseph, Penn State
(4) Isaac Jordan, Wisconsin
(7) Anthony Valencia

While Martinez may have made it look easy, his schedule this year was anything soft. IMar earned the No. 1 seed by notching multiple wins over the tournament's No. 2-, No. 3-, No. 5-, No. 6-, and No. 9-ranked wrestlers in the Flo Top 20. By combining a rock-solid defense with a vast arsenal of attacks that he can hit at any point in a match, Martinez has been operating at a higher level than the rest of the field all season long.

For more evidence, just look at the records of our other top contenders. Massa only has two losses this year, both to IMar. Joseph has four losses, two to IMar, one to Isaac Jordan, and one to Keaton Subjeck of Stanford very early in the year. Jordan has four losses, one to Joseph and three to Massa.

I also included Anthony Valencia, who does have five losses on the year, two of which are to IMar, but has shown steady improvement as the season has progressed. His last non-IMar loss came all the way back in December 2, 2016. And though I am loathe to mix freestyle results in with folkstyle analysis, Valencia can at least say he knows what it's like to get his hand raised on a wrestling mat after competing against Martinez.

Dark Horses

(UR) Luke Zilverberg, South Dakota State
(US) Lorenzo De La Riva, CSU-Bakersfield
(US) Cole Walter, Lehigh

One could make a strong case that the seeding committee overlooked SD State junior Luke Zilverberg. Though unseeded in the tournament, Zilverberg is ranked 14th in the Flo Top 20 and has wins over multiple qualifiers. Zilverberg hails from the Big 12 Conference, a league that qualified an incredible seven wrestlers from just 10 schools at 165.

Lorenzo De La Riva is a tough 165-pounder from the underrated Pac-12, a conference that qualified three wrestlers from just six schools. LDLR (I hope that's a thing) also owns several wins over other national qualifiers, including a victory over No. 8 seed Dylan Cottrell of West Virginia.

Lehigh freshman Cole Walter had a nightmarish EIWA championship, finishing seventh after starting the tournament as the No. 2. However, Walter still has wins this year over All-American David McFadden (who's in the midst of a redshirt year for Virginia Tech) and Chad Walsh, the No. 5 seed from Rider. If Walter can shake off whatever was ailing him at the EIWAs, he'll be a dangerous opponent for anyone in the tournament.

Upset Special

Besides our dark horses, keep an eye out for Yoanse Mejias of Oklahoma. The junior college transfer hasn't had the most consistent season, but the 19th-ranked Sooner has some big time wins over national qualifiers, including 14th-ranked Luke Zilverberg, eighth-ranked Dylan Cottrell, and seventh-ranked Bryce Steiert. Pittsburgh's Te'Shan Campbell, who is the No. 10 see, will have to be wrestling at the top of his game if he wants to avoid the first-round upset.

Spey's Spredictions

  1. Isaiah Martinez, Illinois
  2. Anthony Valencia, Arizona State
  3. Logan Massa, Michigan
  4. Vincenzo Joseph, Penn State
  5. Isaac Jordan, Wisconsin
  6. Dylan Cottrell, West Virginia
  7. Chandler Rogers, Oklahoma State
  8. Chad Walsh, Rider
Having dispatched No. 2 seed Massa for the second time this year in the Big Ten finals, Martinez cemented himself as the clear favorite, and I am neither brave nor bold enough to pick against him. Martinez has two wins over Joseph, two over Valencia, one over Walsh, and one against No. 6 seed Daniel Lewis of Missouri.

I am, however, picking Arizona State redshirt freshman Anthony Valencia to score a few upsets on his way to the finals match. As alluded to earlier, Valencia hasn't lost to anyone not named Isaiah Martinez since the Cliff Keen Las Vegas Invitational in early December, and I am picking him to go on an upset run on his way to the finals for round three with IMar. But I'm even more persuaded by Valencia's glitch-in-the-matrix speed and a how'd-he-do-that creativity than his record. All that and an excellent head coach in Zeke Jones leads me to believe that Valencia is primed for an epic tournament.

I could also be talking myself into the all-California finals match I'd like to see, so take these predictions for what they're worth.

And this is the wrong style of wrestling, but this vintage freestyle match between Martinez and Valencia will give you a good idea of what Anthony is physically capable of:

Logan Massa will recover from his quarterfinal upset to make the consolation finals, where he will meet Big Ten rival Joesph. Massa will win the battle of freshman phenoms, in what I'm sure will not be the last meeting between these two outstanding talents.

Former finalist Isaac Jordan will battle back to the 5/6 match, where he will meet Dylan Cottrell. Jordan will return to Madison, Wisconsin, with fifth-place All-American honors, while the Mountaineers senior will score a commendable sixth-place step on the podium for West By Golly Virginia.

Though I may eat these words later, I think Chandler Rogers will beat the higher-seeded Daniel Lewis in the round of 12 to advance in the consolation bracket. Rogers and Lewis split matches this year. Rogers won by pinfall in the Southern Scuffle finals, whereas in a dual meet later the season, Lewis won a wild one 12-11.

In another prediction I will surely rue, I think Rider's Chad Walsh will be upset in the consolation bracket by Cottrell, despite Walsh getting the better of Cottrell in a dual meet earlier in the year to the tune of 7-4. Cottrell is on a 10-match win streak, with victories over David McFadden, Austin Matthews, and Rogers, and I think he keeps things in high gear at the NCAAs.

That would send him to the 7/8 match to meet Rogers. This one was tough, as Walsh has few bad losses but Rogers matches Walsh's best win against Cottrell and does him one better with a victory over Lewis. I'll be honest, I flipped a coin for this one, and the fates deemed Rogers the victor, and who am I to argue with fate?

There Will Be Bloodround

Consistently one of the most entertaining rounds in any weight class, 165's round of 12 should be no different, as high-caliber wrestlers can be found in abundance.

As mentioned earlier, I have Chandler Rogers ending sixth-seeded Daniel Lewis' season early. In a far less risky prediction, I think we'll see Logan Massa stop Cornell's EIWA champ, Brandon Womack, in the bloodround. MAC runner up Bryce Steiert of Northern Iowa will be sent packing by Big 12 champ Dylan Cottrell. And finally, the unpredictable Yoanse Mejias will be solved by a determined Chad Walsh.

Think you can make better picks? There's a very good chance you can! Here's the 165 bracket. Let me know what you think, and enjoy the championship, wrestling fans!

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